What are your predictions for this school year?

[Sheepsheepmoresheep]

Be interesting to look back. I didn’t think they’d close the schools again this time last year, but I was wrong!

I don’t think they’ll close the schools again … but we’ll see!

It’s not going to be great but I don’t think they will close schools or do a national lockdown.
Individual classes, even schools may shut temporarily- not because of bubbles but staffing or to stop large outbreaks.

They'll definitely need to go back on the no isolation rule for children.

The only question is how far they'll kick the can down the road before they do the right thing.

Given I read this morning that boosters should be given 6 months after the last dose and that’s now for some people I can’t see how we will get through winter as a country with no restrictions given it’s also flu season. If children don’t need to isolate despite no vaccines then they will spread it rapidly, like normal childhood bugs, and even if adults are vaccinated it doesn’t stop them getting it.

Absolute shitshow with sky high cases, random shortages of testing capacity but probably no co-ordinated lockdowns.

Govt will repeatedly say no to vaccinating 12-15 year olds, then abruptly give in far too late, and then blame schoolchildren for not getting the vaccine fast enough (when they can't because they have Covid).

They’ll only close schools if they run out of teachers
Presumably most teachers will be double jabbed so fewer will catch it?

@NannyAndJohn

They'll definitely need to go back on the no isolation rule for children.

The only question is how far they'll kick the can down the road before they do the right thing.

There are no definites at all with this surely you have realised this by now

I suspect that won’t happen - it will very much be individual schools that when certain cases are reached close down years etc for isolation (I think that guidance is in place) as it should be because that works far better

Other than that it’s a wait and see - I suspect it is a decision at the moment between boosters and 12-15 year old due to supply

Masks etc may well come in schools etc

Has there been updated guidance as to contacts inAugudt

@Siameasy

They’ll only close schools if they run out of teachers Presumably most teachers will be double jabbed so fewer will catch it?

Having the vaccine doesn’t stop you from catching covid when exposed to the virus. Also, with the most recent news on effectiveness of vaccine waning after 5-6 months, I think staff at schools will end up catching covid at high rates again. Hope I’m very wrong though.

Does AZ wear off as much though?

I predict
Running out of testing within 3w. Especially as you should get a pcr as a contact.
Our school closed early due to cases and i presume cases are at a very similar level.
England cases are relatively stable certainly not decreasig so r will increase once kids go back.

Remarkable fuck ups for sixth formers.

Year 13 will be facing exams after a very disrupted year 12, but there still appears to be no word on whether there will be any changes to exam format (there had been discussions about a slimmed down 'core' on which questions will be expected, and then more topics in options, so candidates should still be able to find enough questions to answer even if they have some gaps. There's only really the autumn term to tackle new teaching, so it looks as if it could be too little too late. And of course these DC - who did not sit GCSE, so will be having their first experience of public exams - will be competing for university places with all those with assessed grades who took a gap year.

Year 12 will be embarking on A levels even though they may not have completed GCSE courses, so more sixth form teaching time, in done subjects, will be going in to areas that ought to have been covered earlier and will have to teach from scratch rather than recap

I think some schools will struggle with staffing. Even though most staff will be vaccinated, with increasing numbers along the pupils, they could still get it and need time off. Also, those that won't/can't have the vaccine will still have to isolate if have a close contact.

Another issue to bear in mind, if there are a number of cases in say a year or class, this mean groups having to isolate

I also expect we'll get six weeks into term and the JVC will decided 12-15 can be vaccinated.

Even with no contact isolation, once Delta is in a classroom, it could go round nearly everyone, they might not get ill, but overlapping mass absences (10 days each) is going to be a big disruption and could lose a couple of weeks teaching time.

Mass vaccination of u18s has only just started, and plan is one dose only for now, so there might be fewer off in sixth forms, but rest of school could gett quite disrupted just from that.

And that'll be bad for both sixth formers (who are in a pretty shitty position already, but might have slightkymfewer absences) and very much for year 11s who will only just be reaching age for vaccination but who are in about to start the longest teaching term remaining before their GCSEs, where they still have a lot to cover plus everything they need to patch from last year's interruptions

I think they will quickly go back on the decision saying people (staff and children) must go to school even if there is a (or multiple!) positive case at home.

I also think they will soon be vaccinating 12-15 year olds.

My prediction is that our children's education will be disrupted for a third school year by the government's refusal to protect them adequately.

Hundreds of thousands of children will get covid.

Thousands will be admitted to hospital because of it.

And tens of thousands will have long term health consequences.

So make sure you keep evidence of positive tests in case you need to access one of the new Long Covid centres or other medical support because of long term covid effects in the future.

Blimey this is a depressing read.

Thank the lord for our co2 monitors 😅😅😅

And that's not scaremongering at all...

@HSHorror

Does AZ wear off as much though?

I predict
Running out of testing within 3w. Especially as you should get a pcr as a contact.
Our school closed early due to cases and i presume cases are at a very similar level.
England cases are relatively stable certainly not decreasig so r will increase once kids go back.

According to a bbc article I read this morning AZ reduces in effectiveness very quickly. I think the figure was 67% within 4 to 5 months.

@PrincessNutNuts

My prediction is that our children's education will be disrupted for a third school year by the government's refusal to protect them adequately.

Hundreds of thousands of children will get covid.

Thousands will be admitted to hospital because of it.

And tens of thousands will have long term health consequences.

So make sure you keep evidence of positive tests in case you need to access one of the new Long Covid centres or other medical support because of long term covid effects in the future.

This.

Our government have decided that our children are collateral damage.

"Disable Little Timmy with Long Covid to Save Pret" (even though that doesn't have a catchy ring to it).

But where does this end? Clearly this virus isn't going to go anywhere, but how is it sustainable to keep up this level of testing and isolating (in schools but also elsewhere) forever? At some point doesn't a line have to be drawn in the sand?

There's nothing realistically to suggest that tens of thousands of children are going to end up with Long Covid (whatever you class as Long Covid...) and there's really nothing to suggest that this virus has a worse effect on kids (and families) than the many other viruses that make their way through schools during an average winter. I can think of only one occasion when a year group was sent home in my kids' school because of a virus and then was when literally half of Year 2 were at home with noro and any kid who did show up was liable to be vomming on the carpet by lunchtime.

It's just not sustainable and it's not warranted.

I think it would be sensible to…

A offer the vaccine to 12-15 year old children.
B tell households with covid in them to isolate.

I expect longer holidays and vaccinations in school. If it was up to be I'd be saying there'll be a 4 week Xmas break now and get organised for it.
So it'll be a shit show at the last minute.

They won't close schools. To do that they would have to admit there is a problem in schools.

If Pret closed down though, that would mean all the people who work in and for Pret lose their jobs. Pret's suppliers lose contracts. That potentially drives a lot of people into poverty - and what about their children and the impact this would have on them?

Not that I'm entirely sure what the link is between Pret and schools in the first instance.

Agree with Jourdain11. Every idea has an impact elsewhere. Whole households isolating will still mean fewer teachers, essential workers etc because some of those non infected isolating will be teachers/key workers
Most workplaces will not allow time off for double vacced individuals to isolate due to a close contact. I’d fall foul of the sickness policy or have to take unpaid leave.
The amusing thing is I should’ve told work I’ve not had the jab and then every time I fancy 10 days off I will claim to have had a close contact. My work are too lame to check.

@meditrina

Remarkable fuck ups for sixth formers.

Year 13 will be facing exams after a very disrupted year 12, but there still appears to be no word on whether there will be any changes to exam format (there had been discussions about a slimmed down 'core' on which questions will be expected, and then more topics in options, so candidates should still be able to find enough questions to answer even if they have some gaps. There's only really the autumn term to tackle new teaching, so it looks as if it could be too little too late. And of course these DC - who did not sit GCSE, so will be having their first experience of public exams - will be competing for university places with all those with assessed grades who took a gap year.

Year 12 will be embarking on A levels even though they may not have completed GCSE courses, so more sixth form teaching time, in done subjects, will be going in to areas that ought to have been covered earlier and will have to teach from scratch rather than recap

Plus a fucked up Yr 11. Poir kids.

I predict:

Parents becoming antsy when there are several cases in a class and nothing happens about it.

Parents being unhappy about their child sitting next to a child whose entire household has covid.

Parents uncomfortable about sending their kid to school if the household apart from the child has covid.

It's the realisation that the plan is actually for the kids to all get covid that will be interesting.

I also predict that it will be Christmas before I even see a CO2 monitor.