What are your predictions for this school year?

[Sheepsheepmoresheep]

Be interesting to look back. I didn’t think they’d close the schools again this time last year, but I was wrong!

I don’t think they’ll close the schools again … but we’ll see!

About 60 in this particular outbreak at the end of 2019

It's not so much about the students being off with it, even, but if the majority of staff had norovirus or flu, then there would need to be local closures if they can't cover all the classes.

Schools should no more need to close for rampant Covid than they would do for norovirus or flu. The fact that contacts won't have to isolate, and that many young people will get Covid without displaying the three "main" symptoms should hopefully mean Covid will pass through without massive disruption.

But with unknown impact on families and extended school communities who have the virus passed to them.

Schools will close because of lack of staff. If a staff member tests positive, they'll be off. If it's rampant, lots of staff will get it and be off. Staff have been treated appallingly, there is no goodwill left. If I'm positive, whether I'm 'ill' or not, I'm staying home and not working. Others will feel the same.

Increased rates in children cause a huge knock on effect- on hospitalisations, on pressure on healthcare, on absences from work and resulting infrastructure problems. Currently there’s a lot of unknowns, the government really don’t know either. I’d personally say that looking at the current hospitalisation rates and transmissibility of delta including in those vaccinated we will have a problem with the current lack of control measures. If you listen to the previous messaging about the winter it does come across quite clearly that we can expect increased disruption. Flu is also an unknown at the moment.
It is going to be a hard sell to parents after the last 18 months of homeschooling, missed education, lack of social contact to be told never mind you can all get covid and risk passing it on now.

@RuleWithAWoodenFoot

Schools should no more need to close for rampant Covid than they would do for norovirus or flu. The fact that contacts won't have to isolate, and that many young people will get Covid without displaying the three "main" symptoms should hopefully mean Covid will pass through without massive disruption.

But with unknown impact on families and extended school communities who have the virus passed to them.

Schools will close because of lack of staff. If a staff member tests positive, they'll be off. If it's rampant, lots of staff will get it and be off. Staff have been treated appallingly, there is no goodwill left. If I'm positive, whether I'm 'ill' or not, I'm staying home and not working. Others will feel the same.

Im not convinced community testing will continue. The point of it is to contain outbreaks but if you’re not insisting on isolation for contacts there’s not a lot of point..

The 'our children will get covid' argument makes no sense - how does anyone expect their child not to get covid?

That’s kind of the nature of pandemics though, isn’t it.

Who mentions swine flu now, or Spanish flu, or bubonic plague? They come and they go.

I mean, I’ve no idea if that will hold true or not. For all I know we could be going into a third year of chaos. But I hope not.

@TheDailyCarbunkle

The 'our children will get covid' argument makes no sense - how does anyone expect their child not to get covid?

Vaccination maybe?

Vaccination doesnt seem to stop people getting covid

@Bryonyshcmyony

Vaccination doesnt seem to stop people getting covid

It reduces the chances of you getting it. And what people are actually mainly worried about is transmission and disease severity and it has a very positive impact on those things

Yes I know. I was responding to the poster who said people thought vaccination would stop their child getting covid.

Aht that was you 🤣 sorry I thought you thought it stopped you getting it

If you look at the current infection rates in different age groups vaccination is quite clearly pretty effective in stopping you getting covid.
When you have an outbreak of any disease not everyone will get it, the proportion is often changed by simple hygiene measures and other changes to environment. There’s plenty you can do to stop people getting infected, the most important is vaccination. And the modelling with covid shows that it really needs a decent proportion of the population over 12 to be vaccinated.

Why might the government not have encouraged this?

I’m inclined to agree with @RuleWithAWoodenFoot and those suggestions to manage the start back somewhat radically to try and prevent losing too many staff and children all at once.

My prediction is that a fair few schools will close because too many staff are unwell or looking after kids that are unwell. This will happen near at the start of the return because of the transmissibility of Delta. Eventually staff will recover to then manage their work and children will be going off in waves until all have had it.

Perhaps those who are able to Home Educate or have vulnerable children/family and feel it is the safer option could be better supported at least during this third wave and the usual flu season when NHS services are stretched anyway.

It’s going to be a chaotic mess.

Lovely weather expected for the bank holiday weekend which means a lot of mingling and mixing which means schools in England will begin the academic year with very high cases. The effect schools have on case numbers as we all know is significant, so we will be heading into autumn with quite the starting block.

I’m sure we’ll manage to muddle through September somehow but come October the cracks will appear and the extent of our predicament will be crystal clear.

My ‘prediction’ is a return to restrictions in some form or another both in the classroom and in daily life.

Vaccine wane is the elephant in the room, there could be some challenging times ahead and difficult decisions may need to be made.

The big question is will the public get back onboard or will we have to see what life ‘living with Covid’ truly looks like for ourselves?

About 1/3 our year 10-13 are at Reading festival this weekend. 4 days after they leave the festival they will be back in the classroom. With no mitigation and whole year assemblies in the enclosed hall.
Bonkers.

I believe they are trialling air purification systems at some schools in the North.

Have you escaped from a Jane Austen novel?

@borntobequiet

I believe they are trialling air purification systems at some schools in the North.

Have you escaped from a Jane Austen novel?

Sadly not

Here's the link for you

Do you not want festivals then @mumsneedwine

@Sheepsheepmoresheep

Do you not want festivals then *@mumsneedwine*

I think that, since the effect of festivals on teen infection is now entirely foreseeable, then it would be sensible for the government to have a think about whether thousands of teens returning from festivals straight into schools needs some kind of additional planning / risk mitigation.

Unless it really is their plan to seed thousands of in-school outbreaks via festival-goers or, alternatively, start many many teens on the back foot educationally this Autumn through having to miss much of the first week of term.

Interesting

@Sheepsheepmoresheep 😂😂 my own DD is there too. What I'd like is masks and ventilation. But not happening.
If Reading resembles Boardmasters then having those kids in cramped, stuffy rooms is not going to end well.
I'll be wearing a mask and staying as far away as possible.

@cantkeepawayforever exactly. It's bonkers. But then schools are covid safe aren't they 🤪

Here's the link for you

Said Lady Catherine, decisively replacing the sugar tongs.