Vaccines versus infection

[Dustyboots]

Interesting article here. I found it informative.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58270098

It’s not just one country though is it? The EU digital certificate can be used in multiple countries and they all had very different infection levels over time.

In comparison to the EU, I think we are a bit behind in acknowledging that people with previous infection have a significant level of durable immunity.

@CuriousaboutSamphire

It will be a while before we can say definitively how long it lasts. Funny, I have been saying that for a few posts now...

Well, maybe she’ll listen to you Curious.

It’s not just one country though is it? Mm hm! That was my point

The EU? They have quite different criteria, many different population groups etc, land borders, commerce etc etc. They will of course make different decisions.

Not 'behind' just different. Or are New Zealand and Australia, for example, positively neolithic in their decision making?

Different decisons based on different criteria!

Well, maybe she’ll listen to you Curious. grin

Given that the post was about your quote, not mine, the reply was clearly directed at you @bumbleymummy

Nice try though.

I've never definitively stated how long immunity will last, only that public health bodies recommend everyone is vaccinated despite a history of previous infection, due to the uncertainty around robustness and duration and the increasing amount of data demonstrating benefits to both the individual and others.

@speckledostrichegg

Immunity to coronavirus is certainly not lifelong,

Which we wouldn't have known had there not been some failrly extensive longitudinal research across all age groups.

Are you sure @CuriousaboutSamphire? AFAIA this was something assumed from the beginning of the pandemic given what we know about other comparable viral infections- one of the key arguments by epidemiologists against the GBD.

My response was to @bumbleymummy as those points were rather disingenuous and just another post attempting to discourage vaccination in the general population against coronavirus.

I think we cross posted... in more ways than one

Yes, there was a decision taken early on NOT to rely on acquired immunity without further research. That is exists is almost a given but the strength and longevity with Covid were, obviously, unknown. But the research was begun and is ongoing, I know a couple of people involved in collection and analysis of samples and it was discussed a couple of Podium Speeches ago, Chris Whitty or Patrick Valance I think.

Well, maybe she’ll listen to you Curious Erm... that was to YOU @bumbleymummy

You're the one quoting 6, 9, 12 months / oh we won't know for aaaaaaaaages!

The EU? They have quite different criteria, many different population groups etc, land borders, commerce etc etc. They will of course make different decisions.

Yes, but those different population groups etc are still accepting the criteria on the EU certificate which includes previous infection.

@speckledostrichegg

I've never definitively stated how long immunity will last

You said it “certainly isn’t lifelong.”

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01442-9

We’ll just have to wait and see.

Yes, because they are part of the EU! Hate to break it to you but the UK is not!

And that article doesn't claim lifelong immunity!

Yes, I know it was directed at me. And yes, I’m quoting the current evidence that we have for duration of immunity. My point is simply that other countries are willing to accept previous infection for their green passes. The U.K. currently are not, despite the evidence showing that previous infection provides durable immunity.

@CuriousaboutSamphire

Yes, because they are part of the EU! Hate to break it to you but the UK is not!

And that article doesn't claim lifelong immunity!

Yes, I’m well aware of that thanks.

And I know it’s not claiming lifelong immunity. It’s still considered a possibility though which is in contrast to speckled’s comment that it ‘definitely isn’t lifelong’.

‘definitely isn’t lifelong’. Certainly, she said certainly... and that article doesn't say otherwise.

You say it's a possibility, others say no, it isn't. All based on the same data and personal interpretation.

Me? Longevity and strength of immunity still being investigated, most recent results published look very heartening.

It still feels weird to be discussing 'covid passports' as a good thing... not so long ago they were the most ridiculous intrusive, Big Brother isms going!

And I suspect that the government position is NOT quite as you think @bumbleymummy

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/999408/COVID-Status-Certification-Review-Report.pdf

From the end of July - they won't mandate status certification and the many issues they took into consideration.

Deepest apologies for my misuse of the word ‘definitely’ instead of ‘certainly’. I did correctly quote her in my previous post. Sorry for any confusion!

Actually, I said we’ll have to wait and see. The article says it’s a possibility.

We’ll see if things change come September when the majority of people will have been offered the vaccine/will have had the opportunity to have both doses. They do say that it may be used for certain events and that companies may decide to use it at their discretion. So I think it’s still worth considering the inclusion of previously infected people.

Why does lifelong immunity matter?

It only needs to be long enough to tide over between infections, plus a bit for safety.

If we accept some protection comes as result of related but not actual covid-19 a/b/d/etc, and for example may come from common cold immunity, flu, and so on, then the length that specific immunity absolutely needs to last is not really long at all — perhaps even only around a year or so.

Add to that the dynamic effect, which seems to be that if you get it bad (implying you’re at least in some way more vulnerable), you seem to get more robust response.

Perhaps the bigger worry should be that lots of people now haven’t had their annual exposure to cold/flu due to lockdown. I guess let’s hope for a weak flu variant this season, or a good vaccine run, or perhaps even for cross-immunity due to covid.

Initially it mattered because infection rates were rife and we didn't have a vaccine.

As you say, @puppeteer, it matters now as it will help steer repeat / annual vaccination programmes.

Initially it mattered because infection rates were rife and we didn't have a vaccine.

Puppeteer is right though. It didn’t need to be lifelong then either.

Puppeteer is right though. It didn’t need to be lifelong then either. Again, I think you misunderstood.

Initially it was an unknown quantity... remember the point was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed?

What do you think I’ve misunderstood?

Puppeteer “Why does lifelong immunity matter?

It only needs to be long enough to tide over between infections, plus a bit for safety.”

You: “Initially it mattered because infection rates were rife and we didn't have a vaccine.”

If people had some immunity back then it wouldn’t have mattered if it was lifelong or not. Any immunity was a good thing in the absence of the vaccine.

If people had some immunity back then it wouldn’t have mattered if it was lifelong or not. Any immunity was a good thing in the absence of the vaccine. That's what I think you misunderstood!

Any immunity? 6 weeks worth? - which was one early guesstimation.

Think it through... 6 weeks, or even 3 months, immunity last April... what good would relying on that have done?

I’m starting to feel like you’re deliberately trying to misunderstand/argue with everything I’m saying.

Do I think 6 weeks/3 months immunity would be better than nothing in the absence of a vaccine? Yes. Relying on it for what? Last July (when we were looking at 3 months worth of data) our restrictions were being lifted. We had ‘flattened the curve’ etc. We weren’t implementing ‘passports’ to allow people to move around freely.

At the risk of perhaps coming over rather crass…

The good it would have done is shown really quick — like within 6-12 weeks — that immunity last a lot longer than that.

As it was, it was an unsayable thing, and a morally unjustifiably experiment.

Crickey. It’s only when I read my words back that I remember just what a terrible time that was.

I’m referring to 3 months worth of data in the U.K. before you jump on me and tell me that the virus originated in China several months before.

Relying on it for what? Pre vaccination relaying on it for prevention of infection, preventing the NHS being overwhelmed. Could we have done that with only the information we had at the time? No hindsight, just what was known then.

You think I am the one determined to misunderstand/argue?

I say April, you say July etc etc etc. Your baseline changes with every post!

We weren’t implementing ‘passports’ to allow people to move around freely. That makes absolutely no sense! Yet you state it as though it means someting,in context! We didn't have any covid passport last April, or July, for some pretty obvious reasons!

Crickey. It’s only when I read my words back that I remember just what a terrible time that was. It was... I don't think you are alone in forgetting that. I think we all do, to varying degrees. It's a self preservation method.

What now seems like a common sense response would have been, as you said, unconscionable.

And as I type that I am listening to news reminders that covid is endemic, we wil be living with it for some time to come. We have to learn how to do that NOW... not a year ago, or in a year's time, but now! With what we know now.

@CuriousaboutSamphire

Relying on it for what? Pre vaccination relaying on it for prevention of infection, preventing the NHS being overwhelmed. Could we have done that with only the information we had at the time? No hindsight, just what was known then.

You think I am the one determined to misunderstand/argue?

I say April, you say July etc etc etc. Your baseline changes with every post!

We weren’t implementing ‘passports’ to allow people to move around freely. That makes absolutely no sense! Yet you state it as though it means someting,in context! We didn't have any covid passport last April, or July, for some pretty obvious reasons!

Take a breath Samphire. I’m not trying to attack you. This is supposed to be a conversation.

No, we weren’t relying on it then because we didn’t have the data. And I don’t think either puppeteer or I were suggesting that we should have completely relied on it without using the restrictions that we did. The point was simply that it didn’t necessarily need to be ‘lifelong’ to be helpful. Whether we were relying on it or not, it was helping to reduce community spread.

I explained why I said July - I’m talking about U.K. data from April - July. (3 months)

My passport comment makes perfect sense in context. We didn’t have them (or need them) last summer to move around. We weren’t ‘relying’ on immunity at that point to enable us to lift restrictions move around.

Take a breath Samphire. I’m not trying to attack you. This is supposed to be a conversation. ????

I responded using your own turn of phrase? You said I’m starting to feel like you’re deliberately trying to misunderstand/argue with everything I’m saying. and I responded that I think the same about you and your posts - that we continue to respond is a conversation!

No, we weren’t relying on it then because we didn’t have the data. And I don’t think either puppeteer or I were suggesting that we should have completely relied on it without using the restrictions that we did. The point was simply that it didn’t necessarily need to be ‘lifelong’ to be helpful. Whether we were relying on it or not, it was helping to reduce community spread. I have no idea what point you are making then! As you have just typed up what I have been posting!

My passport comment makes perfect sense in context. We didn’t have them (or need them) last summer to move around. We weren’t ‘relying’ on immunity at that point to enable us to lift restrictions move around. Which is also what I was saying.

Try again, @bumbleymummy Your position seems to veering a little.

What good do/did you think knowing the length/strenghth of acquired immunity would be/would have been - at any point of the pandenmic?

What good will it be now - with covid being endemic?