Australia in a mess - NZ with a plan

[StartupRepair]

More than half of Australia is in lockdown now, sparked (imo) by the intransigence of the NSW Premier who ignored all warnings about Delta. Our procurement of and messaging around vaccines has been dangerously incompetent.
It all feels a bit bleak today. At least NZ seems to have a plan.

I can’t belive Aus and NZ are doing these harsh lockdowns and making same mistakes UK did

This is not the death plague!

Good article.

twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1429011553034981377?s=19

The protests are a symptom of lockdown. People are breaking, of course they are.

Stupid to expect otherwise.

The Doherty Institutes (actual experts) have provided the federal government with new modelling that show opening up with higher case numbers won’t change things this much.

Of course this good news will be buried amongst the scaremongering articles and the ever louder cries of ‘won’t somebody think of the children’. Australians are being dragged kicking and screaming into the real world and some of them quiet frankly need to get a grip.

Meanwhile. I considered booking a holiday in Tasmania next week from Adelaide but in the end the looming possibility of a lockdown in either state from just one case made it all too hard. Not the end of the world but just another example of how life has been put on hold.

What are the protesters trying to achieve? Why only protest during lockdown? Why not at other times between, we had many many months after the first where they could have protested against them happening again?

Obviously the government aren't just going to say, oh you know you're right, it's a bad idea let's cancel lockdowns.

Why not at other times between

Because then ppl say "what are you protesting for. Lockdown is over"

But we all know that they could be implemented again, we have had several short ones, it's always on the cards if infections rise.

I can almost understand protesting against future lockdowns, standing up and saying no more, we need another way.

It just feels like a stupid thing to do, you know you'll likely be arrested and or fined.

@bluetongue

The Doherty Institutes (actual experts) have provided the federal government with new modelling that show opening up with higher case numbers won’t change things this much.

Of course this good news will be buried amongst the scaremongering articles and the ever louder cries of ‘won’t somebody think of the children’. Australians are being dragged kicking and screaming into the real world and some of them quiet frankly need to get a grip.

Meanwhile. I considered booking a holiday in Tasmania next week from Adelaide but in the end the looming possibility of a lockdown in either state from just one case made it all too hard. Not the end of the world but just another example of how life has been put on hold.

The original reporting on that modelling never made a lot of sense to me. It's long been accepted (especially with Delta) that the base number you start with doesn't matter as much as the rate of spread. So while starting at 30 cases might have kept cases lowish for an extra few series intervals inevitably you will still snowball to higher caseloads pretty quickly.

Obsessing about the starting point only made sense if the real intention was to continue with extreme suppression. And extreme suppression looks to be really hard with Delta. It basically means rolling lockdowns or completely blocking all arrivals from overseas.

If he said “we are closing playgrounds because X number of transmissions have been found here worldwide”

So not Andrews specifically but the Vic CHO - Guardian Aus link

The chief health officer, Prof Brett Sutton, said the risk of transmission between children was one of the reasons he decided to close playgrounds and skateparks.
“We are investigating a potential transmission in a playground,” Sutton said. “It is not definitive, and maybe we will not be able to make it definitive, but it looks like there has been transmission in a playground.

We have also seen transmission between students who were not in classes together, who did not have any other face-to-face interaction other than sharing a walk home, didn’t play together, don’t live together, didn’t have classes together.

Full story here: www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/17/victoria-covid-update-authorities-warn-of-delta-spread-among-children-as-state-reports-24-new-cases

FWIW, playgrounds have also been closed in at least one Sydney LGA (Blacktown) for several weeks and there hasn't been any carry-on about that.

This is a sensible article in my opinion. We are buying time. No more.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/20/it-might-not-feel-like-it-as-cases-rise-but-nsw-is-controlling-delta?fbclid=IwAR1U5pUxtFf8uWKyTnMZ_03hvRy7XtGmpqufs24B4FXJrX-rIep1MD8sGYE

Riots/protests are the langauge of the unheard. There are people who live on the edge, as someone said upthread there is more than one type of "vulnerable", lockdowns might protect the clinically vulnerable from Covid for a while - but it shifts the danger to another group. Equally as vulnerable but in a different way.

While everyone is shouting about "won't you think of the children", they are remarkably silent on the kids who are going hungry, kids now locked in with abusers with no one to see the bruises, kids who are getting no education and who will pay for that lack throughout their lives, probably with shorter lifespans to boot.

Women will die because of the decision to stop breast cancer screening. But hey, they won't die of Covid so I guess that doesn't matter.

If we must lockdown for now to get as many people as possible vaccinated then we must. But lets not pretend that this is without cost. And lets not judge the people whose lives we destroy with that decision when they object.

KowhaiWhy, there was a "carry-on" when those Councils closed the playgrounds and I understand that many of them have now backed down.

@AllHailTheGreatGoddess

This is a sensible article in my opinion. We are buying time. No more.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/20/it-might-not-feel-like-it-as-cases-rise-but-nsw-is-controlling-delta?fbclid=IwAR1U5pUxtFf8uWKyTnMZ_03hvRy7XtGmpqufs24B4FXJrX-rIep1MD8sGYE

Riots/protests are the langauge of the unheard. There are people who live on the edge, as someone said upthread there is more than one type of "vulnerable", lockdowns might protect the clinically vulnerable from Covid for a while - but it shifts the danger to another group. Equally as vulnerable but in a different way.

While everyone is shouting about "won't you think of the children", they are remarkably silent on the kids who are going hungry, kids now locked in with abusers with no one to see the bruises, kids who are getting no education and who will pay for that lack throughout their lives, probably with shorter lifespans to boot.

Women will die because of the decision to stop breast cancer screening. But hey, they won't die of Covid so I guess that doesn't matter.

If we must lockdown for now to get as many people as possible vaccinated then we must. But lets not pretend that this is without cost. And lets not judge the people whose lives we destroy with that decision when they object.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

I do worry about kids with no underlying issues and overprotective parents. Some seem worried enough about Covid that they’d consider effectively shielding them until vaccines are available for children.

From my experience growing up with an overprotective mother it can be really damaging. I still remember how a I wasn’t allowed to ride horses in year 12 ‘in case I broke my arm and it ruined my school year’. She also tried to stop me going on a high school kayaking trip. It really messes up your development and also resulted in things like me still not getting vaccinated for flu because my mum is so insistent on it.

That is sad bluetongue, I am very much a "vaxxer", I have always understood and explained this to my kids as a way to "weigh the dice" in our favour.

Nothing is perfect, life is dangerous and you WILL die. But you can enjoy yourself, take and accept risks while mitigating if possible.

@bluetongue

The Doherty Institutes (actual experts) have provided the federal government with new modelling that show opening up with higher case numbers won’t change things this much.

Of course this good news will be buried amongst the scaremongering articles and the ever louder cries of ‘won’t somebody think of the children’. Australians are being dragged kicking and screaming into the real world and some of them quiet frankly need to get a grip.

Meanwhile. I considered booking a holiday in Tasmania next week from Adelaide but in the end the looming possibility of a lockdown in either state from just one case made it all too hard. Not the end of the world but just another example of how life has been put on hold.

The Doherty Institute and other experts have informed the all the state and Federal Governments throughout this period. Glad you brought them up, as it is they that help inform inform decision-making - not just Gladys Berejiklian on her own.

That is really not what the doherty institute have said, in fact they're revising their modelling as opening up and no lock downs at 70% vax rate was based in 10's of cases, not 100's.

LOL, Australia is now going through the "dob your neighbors in for harmless fun" phase. Someone reported children playing on a trampoline in their own garden, someone else reported a child drawing on their own drive in chalk. Anyone else here old enough to remember "Mrs Mangle" from "Neighbors"?

NSW is now vaccinating like the clappers. Good! If they can roll it out really fast, Oz will get away with a low death toll.

If Oz and NZ do go all "endemic COVID-y" (not certain but possible), I wonder what the Zero Covid people on here will do when they want to point out examples of countries that Did It Right? Will they have to go the full-on "tankie" route and start suggesting that the People's Republic of China isn't really as bad as everyone's making out? Or will they be reduced to pointing at specks of rock in the Pacific Ocean, while saying "See? The plucky little island of Tavalaha (population 813) managed to keep COVID out altogether. ITS PERFECTLY SIMPLE."

once high vaccination rates are achieved, our best shot at living freely is to start with almost no COVID in the community.

They are basically stating that they will aim to treat COVID like measles. This seems to be a bargaining stage that people go through when they are starting to realize how impossible it is to keep the virus out permanently. The trouble is that COVID isn't really like measles at all. It's very hard to achieve no community spread of a disease that is asymptomatic in at least 50% of children and does not have a really watertight sterilizing vaccine.

It's a pity. If COVID was indeed the kind of virus that could be controlled like measles or TB or leprosy or typhoid ( i.e., you accord it the status of a "notifiable disease," require any case, even one, to be reported to a central medical body, and then have the public health authorities trace and quickly stamp out the outbreak right away) then yes, this would be an excellent plan.

The plucky little island of Tavalaha (population 813) managed to keep COVID out altogether. ITS PERFECTLY SIMPLE."

I'm on an island with a population not that much bigger than Tavalaha. We have no covid but we are worried, very worried. There are two ventilators in the local hospital. Two. We hope we can keep it out.

Forever, Guineapigbridge?

No, long enough that we can give boosters to everyone and vaxx all the children. March/April next year, maybe?

The lockdown protesters in Melbourne yesterday were also antivax. Weirdly chanting 'my body my choice', which I think of in a different context. They sent 9 police to hospital with injuries.

The stats on the number of vaccinated needing serious care are heartening.

I think there are only about 8 people in ITU who have had one vax and no double jabbed at all.

@Kokeshi123

once high vaccination rates are achieved, our best shot at living freely is to start with almost no COVID in the community.

They are basically stating that they will aim to treat COVID like measles. This seems to be a bargaining stage that people go through when they are starting to realize how impossible it is to keep the virus out permanently. The trouble is that COVID isn't really like measles at all. It's very hard to achieve no community spread of a disease that is asymptomatic in at least 50% of children and does not have a really watertight sterilizing vaccine.

It's a pity. If COVID was indeed the kind of virus that could be controlled like measles or TB or leprosy or typhoid ( i.e., you accord it the status of a "notifiable disease," require any case, even one, to be reported to a central medical body, and then have the public health authorities trace and quickly stamp out the outbreak right away) then yes, this would be an excellent plan.

We all wish there was a sterilising vaccine but for now the ones we have are still pretty damn good considering the timeframe.

The way I see it up is that everyone will eventually get Covid. Many won’t even realise. For some it will be a minor sniffle. For others they will need a week or two at home recovering for a flu like illness. Life will go on. Children will not fill the ICUs.

I won’t be surprised if a couple of the skivers at my work are the ones that coincidentally end up with a case of long Covid. Not saying long Covid doesn’t exist, more that it will be convenient excuse for time off for some.