I’m wondering will this pandemic ever Be over?

[SparklesandGold]

I thought about the swine flu pandemic of 2009 and it was declared over by summer 2010.

It feels like covid will never end, I know it will always be here but do you think we will ever get back to complete normality when the world vaccination rates are high enough?

As in no more travel restrictions or the risk of going back into lockdowns?

Also, what is the science behind this? Why is this a pandemic? Could you not say the common cold is also a pandemic?

Yes and no. I work in social science / academia and one phrase I’ve started to hear a lot recently is the Covid Decade. Which doesn’t mean things continuing exactly as they are now for the next ten years but more that socially, economically, culturally etc Covid and the response to it will define the next decade. Similar to the post WW2 1945-1955 period in some ways.

Here’s an idea, as reparation for introducing the virus in the first place, China pays for mass world vaccination. They already “own” vast swathes of Africa. They should step up to the plate. Furthermore it is China which is leading the charge towards climate and natural disaster. Whilst we are busy recycling one sheet of paper they are sticking up another couple of coal-fired furnaces. Furthermore I saw that the market in consumer goods has rocketed there. Fair enough, but one item in particular was disposable nappies, a product which has seen sales increase by literally millions.

Two “furthermores” in there - clumsy!

I somewhat agree about the covid clingers. My local council dreams of March 2020. The offices are still taped up and there are dire warnings of doom on the website.

@DottyHarmer I don’t think you’ve thought this through. When a contagion of concern arises in any country do you really want to dissuade them alerting the WHO and the rest of the world for fear of bankrupting themselves and marking themselves as pariah’s? Actions like you’re suggesting have terrible repercussions for future health concerns. Viruses and bacteria happen, it’s a fact of life.

I’d rather see a fund created to enable countries to isolate themselves if they identify a dangerous contagion in their population.

Yes and no, the pandemic will cease but we just will have another disease in circulation just like flu is

What about the Spanish flu?;that pandemic ended without vaccines;that pandemic was so much worse;millions died.

Thé strain coronavirus that caused that eventually mutation into seasonal flu.

Not for a few years, if ever, will things be exactly as they were.

But it won't be as restrictive as it has been. Mask wearing will be normalised in certain situations. Vulnerable people will be careful about social distancing. Public buildings will need to have more ventilation. Hopefully schools will have better ventilation and a safer layout in classrooms.

If there's another spike then restrictions will be introduced.

It would be lovely if we could pretend it's all over but it isn't. We still have to protect the NHS and vulnerable people.

Also, what is the science behind this? Why is this a pandemic? Could you not say the common cold is also a pandemic

Covid is highly infectious, has a long incubation period, many with it are asymptomatic, it has a much higher mortality rate than flu (6 x higher) and so, importantly, it has the potential to collapse health services in a short space of time if the spread is not suppressed by lockdowns etc and vaccines. This is the reason why it is such a serious situation and this has been known more or less right from the start.

Everything that's happening, across the world, is about keeping services, especially health, functioning at an acceptable level while science learns more about the virus and how to cope with it in the future, because unfortunately it's most likely here to stay

[quote Cornettoninja]@DottyHarmer I don’t think you’ve thought this through. When a contagion of concern arises in any country do you really want to dissuade them alerting the WHO and the rest of the world for fear of bankrupting themselves and marking themselves as pariah’s? Actions like you’re suggesting have terrible repercussions for future health concerns. Viruses and bacteria happen, it’s a fact of life.

I’d rather see a fund created to enable countries to isolate themselves if they identify a dangerous contagion in their population.[/quote]
Because China were so open about it last time

China supplies the world. I’d prefer to see investment into alternative suppliers which is starting to happen given the rise in global shipping costs

The WHO are useless anyway. Let’s not forget their early guidance all about avoiding stigmatising asians rather than How To Actually Protect Yourselves From Covid

It makes me so cross that the world's cheapest vaccine made by a company who committed to do it on a not-for-profit basis was weaponised by politicians looking to score points.

Indeed. I think most people don't have a clue that this has happened.
I had AZ and have no complaints about it . In fact I htink it is safer than the others.

Here’s an idea, as reparation for introducing the virus in the first place, China pays for mass world vaccination. They already “own” vast swathes of Africa. They should step up to the plate.

Why are China not paying? But we can't wait for them.......after all they started it off. Covid. Do they want an end to it?

Fair comment @AuntieJoyce but there’s certainly room to make a bad situation worse. There’s very little to gain from actions like @DottyHarmer proposed.

I’m not a massive fan of the WHO but appreciate they have to navigate tricky politics and whether it’s improving it’s current structure or starting a new organisation they have an important role. We’d be worse off without it and nothing to replace it. One of the earliest identifiers of a weakness in global surveillance was Trumps withdrawal of their surveillance programme in China and other countries. America shouldn’t have to shoulder the burden of global surveillance anyway, but their pulling back almost certainly contributed to the pandemic.

China’s hold on the global market will depend on more than our government can sanction. I’d like to see a more even spread globally and whether this happens remains to be seen. Prices will absolutely rise and whether or not this will be tolerated by markets remains to be seen. China commit horrendous human rights abuses to keep their position in global markets and have been doing so for a very long time. I struggle to believe that this is what will knock them out of their position. I think it will take a much larger internal revolution within China to impact that side and whether their citizens want that or not isn’t something we can really influence.

Apart from the fact that I've lost my job and my industry is still affected, I think life feels pretty normal again now. In the last few weeks I've been on holiday abroad, been to a museum without booking, ordered a drink at the bar in a pub, visited friends, been for a swim without booking a session, eaten out, been to the cinema, been shopping in my local shopping centre without wearing a mask everywhere. I'm still wearing a mask on public transport and crowded places, but it feels like we're taking small steps back to normality.

[quote Cornettoninja]@DottyHarmer I don’t think you’ve thought this through. When a contagion of concern arises in any country do you really want to dissuade them alerting the WHO and the rest of the world for fear of bankrupting themselves and marking themselves as pariah’s? Actions like you’re suggesting have terrible repercussions for future health concerns. Viruses and bacteria happen, it’s a fact of life.

I’d rather see a fund created to enable countries to isolate themselves if they identify a dangerous contagion in their population.[/quote]
New viruses and bacteria emerge more frequently when we exploit animals and the natural world for our own personal gain. This wasn’t a ‘natural’ disaster. It could have been avoided and future pandemics could be avoided if weren’t weren’t so scared of offending other nations’ cultural sensibilities.

Well said.
Some narrow minded views on here that are getting repetitive

This wasn’t a ‘natural’ disaster. It could have been avoided and future pandemics could be avoided if weren’t weren’t so scared of offending other nations’ cultural sensibilities

I’m not going to get into debating the origins of covid itself, it doesn’t really matter, viruses are a natural biological fact and exist engineered or not.

Do you not agree that rather than waiting for countries to be ‘found out’ and offending them that it’s better that scenarios like this one are voluntarily disclosed?

Quote fail....
Was referring to foliage everywhere post

Eventually we will have life back. But maybe not for all, for a while.
Many passed away, many left with lingering issues. But I'm hopeful it will be over some day, and covid will be one of those illness like many other.

Also, what is the science behind this? Why is this a pandemic? Could you not say the common cold is also a pandemic?

The common cold is endemic. Endemic means that a disease is permanently present in a population. The population could be global or it could be local eg malaria is endemic in Africa but not Europe.

An outbreak is when you get higher levels of an endemic disease than would be expected or a disease is imported into an area where it is not endemic eg there have been outbreaks of measles in recent years.

An epidemic is when you have very high levels of a disease rapidly spreading in a region or several regions.

A pandemic is when an epidemic has spread around the world.

The likelihood is that COVID will become endemic - so permanently present but at lower levels than the current pandemic due to immunity in the population.

@Cornettoninja

This wasn’t a ‘natural’ disaster. It could have been avoided and future pandemics could be avoided if weren’t weren’t so scared of offending other nations’ cultural sensibilities

I’m not going to get into debating the origins of covid itself, it doesn’t really matter, viruses are a natural biological fact and exist engineered or not.

Do you not agree that rather than waiting for countries to be ‘found out’ and offending them that it’s better that scenarios like this one are voluntarily disclosed?

Yes I agree they should be voluntarily disclosed. However I think the WHO’s handling of the pandemic has been an abysmal failure right from the start. It’s a organisation that’s in dire need of reform or replacement. We need a set of governing practices and principles that all nations should adhere to on the treatment of animals in all settings as we do for humans.

Yes viruses and bacteria are natural but we helping engineer new viruses and bacteria must faster than they would naturally evolve because of the way we treat animals and the natural world. One example, factory farmed cattle are pumped full of antibiotics and make the likelihood of need strain of antibiotic resistant bacteria evolving extremely likely. Scientists agree this will happen at some point in the future. Do we therefore rethink the way we treat animals and our meat consumption or just sit back and wait for this new strain of bacteria to emerge because ‘it’s a natural biological fact’, albeit one that could have been avoided?

@thenewduchessofhastings

What about the Spanish flu?;that pandemic ended without vaccines;that pandemic was so much worse;millions died.

Thé strain coronavirus that caused that eventually mutation into seasonal flu.

Except that flu isn’t caused by a coronavirus

@AchillesLastStand I don’t disagree with anything you’ve posted but I stand by what I posted in response to a poster calling for China to effectively be punished for covid.

There are much deeper issues thrown up by covid that are deserving of attention but making anyone ‘pay’ for the pandemic in some misguided attempt at, well I’m not even sure what that would be an attempt at other than revenge and an outlet for anger… it doesn’t really matter, because that’s simply antagonising further conflict.

[quote Cornettoninja]@AchillesLastStand I don’t disagree with anything you’ve posted but I stand by what I posted in response to a poster calling for China to effectively be punished for covid.

There are much deeper issues thrown up by covid that are deserving of attention but making anyone ‘pay’ for the pandemic in some misguided attempt at, well I’m not even sure what that would be an attempt at other than revenge and an outlet for anger… it doesn’t really matter, because that’s simply antagonising further conflict.[/quote]
I completely agree. There is no point in blaming China for the pandemic and doing that is extremely unhelpful in preventing future pandemics. I do however think the WHO should be held to account for its actions early on. The truth is this pandemic could have easily emerged from one the massive factory farms in the US or even here in the U.K.

What will it actually take for this pandemic to be declared over?

@Odisia

Apart from the fact that I've lost my job and my industry is still affected, I think life feels pretty normal again now. In the last few weeks I've been on holiday abroad, been to a museum without booking, ordered a drink at the bar in a pub, visited friends, been for a swim without booking a session, eaten out, been to the cinema, been shopping in my local shopping centre without wearing a mask everywhere. I'm still wearing a mask on public transport and crowded places, but it feels like we're taking small steps back to normality.

Yup. As soon as we can get over that slight anomaly of 130 plus Covid related deaths a day in the UK we’ll be laughing won’t we?