I’m wondering will this pandemic ever Be over?

[SparklesandGold]

I thought about the swine flu pandemic of 2009 and it was declared over by summer 2010.

It feels like covid will never end, I know it will always be here but do you think we will ever get back to complete normality when the world vaccination rates are high enough?

As in no more travel restrictions or the risk of going back into lockdowns?

Also, what is the science behind this? Why is this a pandemic? Could you not say the common cold is also a pandemic?

No, sorry life won’t be back to pre 2020, we need to adjust to a new normal. 😌

The thing with major world-wide events is that they do permanently change human culture, which is partly why they become so historically significant. So in the last century both WW1 and WW2 ended but both completely changed life and ideas and society and culture and of course life was never the same after as it has been before because that's how history and change works.
We can't know how yet, but no, life will not go back to what it was. And climate change is really beginning to bite now so we need to shift focus on to that.
I do think that the - very short in human and even shorter in planetary terms - age of mass easy travel is over. So it would be wise to accept and get used to that. It was nice while it lasted but it's not sustainable for many, many reasons and covid has helped break our addiction to it.

I think the world vaccination programme is going to take a very long time. I looked at the WHO and it says only 83% of the children in their member states had polio or measles vaccine and they are long established.

Yeah things will get back to normal. Feels a lot more normal than it used to. Apart from travel abroad, but that will calm down eventually.

It won't even start to be over until wealthy nations stop hoarding vaccines and do more to help developing countries.

www.theguardian.com/society/2021/aug/09/uk-set-to-hoard-up-to-210m-doses-of-covid-vaccine-research-suggests

@Heyhohi

No, sorry life won’t be back to pre 2020, we need to adjust to a new normal. 😌

🤣🤣 hilarious

Covid will never end, it’ll stabilise and become more controlled but it’s with us now. The pandemic will end when that’s true in the majority of the globe.

PP are right, it’s inevitable that some things from pre-covid will change permanently, big events have a tendency to shape our lives like that. The emergence of HIV/AIDS changed our attitudes to sexual health massively along with our approach to blood products for medical treatment. Condoms and other methods to encourage good sexual health are things we don’t even question now but if you think about it, the decades immediately preceding HIV/AIDS heralded a sexual revolution with when the contraceptive pill was introduced. It wasn’t an easy education campaign to introduce. It’s odd that no other std really inspired the same changes but I suppose that’s the influence of advances in science and technology, we had tools available so used them.

@Heyhohi

No, sorry life won’t be back to pre 2020, we need to adjust to a new normal. 😌

I love it when people reply as if they have insider knowledge and have to let the rest of us down gently with their ‘sorry’s .

@Heyhohi

No, sorry life won’t be back to pre 2020, we need to adjust to a new normal. 😌

Hark at mystic meg with her "no, sorry". You don't know a thing so sit down.

I think needing COVID vaccination to do certain things eg elder care, go on a cruise ship, will be with us for quite a few years. But the rest of it - masks, testing, social distancing I reckon will be gone from daily life within a 12 month.

@heldinadream

The thing with major world-wide events is that they do permanently change human culture, which is partly why they become so historically significant. So in the last century both WW1 and WW2 ended but both completely changed life and ideas and society and culture and of course life was never the same after as it has been before because that's how history and change works. We can't know how yet, but no, life will not go back to what it was. And climate change is really beginning to bite now so we need to shift focus on to that. I do think that the - very short in human and even shorter in planetary terms - age of mass easy travel is over. So it would be wise to accept and get used to that. It was nice while it lasted but it's not sustainable for many, many reasons and covid has helped break our addiction to it.

Agree with most of this. One thing the pandemic has demonstrated is that globalisation has hit a biological wall. We can’t carry on consuming, mass international travel and other lifestyle habits like mass meat consumption without there being dire consequences. The pandemic is a consequence of this activity but climate change is much a much bigger and permanent one. Mother Nature’s sending us a message but no one’s listening. As someone much more intelligent than me once said, it’s easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.

The aids thing is an interesting comparison - not least in how rare deep seated permanent change to society really is. It seems that in many cases regarding what seemed like irreversible social change is subject to the pendulum effect where attitudes swing back in the opposition direction - usually as new generations come of age. So the focus on sexual health which was prevalent in the 80s and 90s waning amongst the younger generation with condom use actually declining.
Similarly the social revolution around women in the work place that was triggered by the war was substantially wound back during the post war period and only really took hold again in the 60's and 70's.

@Heyhohi

No, sorry life won’t be back to pre 2020, we need to adjust to a new normal. 😌

What's with the PA smily face at the end? And who are you apologising to? Did you cause the pandemic?

It seems that in many cases regarding what seemed like irreversible social change is subject to the pendulum effect where attitudes swing back in the opposition direction - usually as new generations come of age

This is true but it’s impossible to call which ones stick through the generations and which don’t. I think it was the TB outbreaks (not 100% on that) last century that led to spitting in public becoming socially unacceptable, it’s still seen as something people just do in many countries.

Then you can start looking at the changes triggered by 9/11 and subsequent terrorist threats that seem not only permanently with us but built on and expanded as technology opens up new avenues.

I still think it’s true that big disasters shape society.

We will have to learn to live with it. I'd say that is what will slowly start to happen from now on.

Covid 19 is going nowhere. It may not be a flu virus in itself, but it does behave much like one in that it mutates and sometimes new variants will emerge.

The vaccination program is going well, though we really should be helping poorer countries much more and we can afford to do that.

We need to get into a routine of tweaking vaccines so that they can cover as many new variants as possible each year. Then keep offering those as boosters to at least all who get a flu vaccine. I would hope that we can go from there.

As for back to normal, yes. Do it now. We have to do it soon anyway as we can't afford further lockdowns. Nor can we or should we be destroying people's businesses and livelihoods in that way.

Pandemics typically last for 2-3 years, so we shouldn't expect it to be 'over' yet.
However, countries with a high uptake of vaccines, such as the UK, should be able to drop restrictions and open up the economy without causing massive hospital admissions and loss of life.
While it's still early days, we are now moving towards the position of covid being just another illnesses, similar to flu in significance.

@Orf1abc I do think that is quite lazy reporting by The Guardian. As someone with lots of family in southern Africa I feel very strongly that there should be more vaccine equality. I have no family in this country and haven't seen any of my relatives since 2019 so I have a very strong vested interest in getting the whole world vaccinated.

BUT:

1. It is not just about vaccines - a lot of poorer nations need needles, PPE for health care professionals, vaccinators, logistics help to store vaccines, help to distribute it to big cities and also huge sparsely populated areas. For example, Botswana had to stop giving AZ second doses because they ran out of doses (there were supply issues and the plan wasn't in place to hold back second doses). Malawi, Congo, South Sudan are just three countries (there are more I just can't remember them offhand) who have had to destroy expire vaccine shipments because they haven't been able to distribute them in time.

1. What would massively help is having more of the one dose jabs like Johnson & Johnson - I'm not sure which (if any) countries are stockpiling that but perhaps attention needs to be paid at massively ramping up production of that jab.

1. I don't know whether or not it can be fixed but there is a lot of vaccine hesitancy about the AZ vaccine which I think is Europe's fault. The "quasi vaccine" comments from world leaders (even though this was in direct contradiction to the advice of the EMA) hasn't gone unnoticed in the rest of the world. So when the Netherlands and Denmark send lots of their unwanted AZ vaccines to Kenya, Namibia etc it does look a bit like "it's not good enough for the Europeans but the second rate vaccine is good enough for us Africans". Some hospitals in Namibia are no longer admitting patients over 50 years old and bodies are being piled 3 per drawer in the morgues. And they have AZ supplies which a lot of people won't have. It isn't so long ago that Africa was indeed a dumping ground for medicines or clinical trials so who can blame them for being nervous? It makes me so cross that the world's cheapest vaccine made by a company who committed to do it on a not-for-profit basis was weaponised by politicians looking to score points.

1. The article quotes the fact that countries like Haiti, Yemen, South Sudan etc have barely vaccinated anyone . Seriously. These countries are politically unstable, have ongoing wars etc - fighting people are not going to pause things to allow a vaccine rollout to take place before resuming hostilities. There is no doubt these places need help but is the suggestion that the rest of the world waits for them to catch up really feasible?

I have no idea what the answer is. And I really don't mean to rant. But I would appreciate it if some of the people who criticise vaccine hoarding could look at the bigger picture and come up with constructive suggestions.

Bare in mind the AZ vaccine only needs storage in a normal fridge which makes it much easier to store in poorer countries. It’s such a shame it’s had such bad press but works well.

@PatrickTheFox great post and really drives home the complexities around offering the vaccine to all populations fairly.

There isn’t going to be a perfect solution to distributing vaccines and yes, the west is in a largely fortunate position to be able to roll out large scale programmes but these vials are being manufactured on a massive scale and it stands to reason that those who have the capability to distribute them comparatively easily will do so first. There’s very little to be gained for the bigger picture by distributing vaccines evenly without thinking about the infrastructure of countries receiving them.

It’s not a particularly nice situation but this is a continuation of global inequalities and the truth is that’s the framework we have to work within because there’s not an easy or quick solution to these problems.

The pandemic will end and most people will go back to normal behaviour (many already have) but some people will try to keep dragging it on and on for years.

@bumbleymummy

The pandemic will end and most people will go back to normal behaviour (many already have) but some people will try to keep dragging it on and on for years.

The people that have gone back to normal behaviour are the ones that are able to. For those working in healthcare or likely to have vaccine failure it's not that simple.I think it's important to remember the pandemic has "ended" for a privileged minority.

You say people are will try to keep "dragging it on for years", but in reality, it will require some long term policies globally to reduce death and disability.

[quote PatrickTheFox]@Orf1abc I do think that is quite lazy reporting by The Guardian. As someone with lots of family in southern Africa I feel very strongly that there should be more vaccine equality. I have no family in this country and haven't seen any of my relatives since 2019 so I have a very strong vested interest in getting the whole world vaccinated.

BUT:

1. It is not just about vaccines - a lot of poorer nations need needles, PPE for health care professionals, vaccinators, logistics help to store vaccines, help to distribute it to big cities and also huge sparsely populated areas. For example, Botswana had to stop giving AZ second doses because they ran out of doses (there were supply issues and the plan wasn't in place to hold back second doses). Malawi, Congo, South Sudan are just three countries (there are more I just can't remember them offhand) who have had to destroy expire vaccine shipments because they haven't been able to distribute them in time.

1. What would massively help is having more of the one dose jabs like Johnson & Johnson - I'm not sure which (if any) countries are stockpiling that but perhaps attention needs to be paid at massively ramping up production of that jab.

1. I don't know whether or not it can be fixed but there is a lot of vaccine hesitancy about the AZ vaccine which I think is Europe's fault. The "quasi vaccine" comments from world leaders (even though this was in direct contradiction to the advice of the EMA) hasn't gone unnoticed in the rest of the world. So when the Netherlands and Denmark send lots of their unwanted AZ vaccines to Kenya, Namibia etc it does look a bit like "it's not good enough for the Europeans but the second rate vaccine is good enough for us Africans". Some hospitals in Namibia are no longer admitting patients over 50 years old and bodies are being piled 3 per drawer in the morgues. And they have AZ supplies which a lot of people won't have. It isn't so long ago that Africa was indeed a dumping ground for medicines or clinical trials so who can blame them for being nervous? It makes me so cross that the world's cheapest vaccine made by a company who committed to do it on a not-for-profit basis was weaponised by politicians looking to score points.

1. The article quotes the fact that countries like Haiti, Yemen, South Sudan etc have barely vaccinated anyone . Seriously. These countries are politically unstable, have ongoing wars etc - fighting people are not going to pause things to allow a vaccine rollout to take place before resuming hostilities. There is no doubt these places need help but is the suggestion that the rest of the world waits for them to catch up really feasible?

I have no idea what the answer is. And I really don't mean to rant. But I would appreciate it if some of the people who criticise vaccine hoarding could look at the bigger picture and come up with constructive suggestions.[/quote]
Yes lazy reporting and setting up a false dichotomy- particularly those who state it as if the choice is vaccinating healthy children here or vaccinating vulnerable people in developing countries.

Actual vaccine doses is not the limiting factor for the reasons you have described. We need to do far more to help other countries but just dumping doses as a quick fix is not helpful.

I also wonder if the age of mass global travel is over. .. for a fair few years anyway.

Yup, the UK would have a much greater impact by actually providing resources and funding to Covax and supporting technology transfer agreements for domestic manufacture and scaling up vaccine production. As has been stated a couple of times, Malawi had destroy thousands of donated doses because of some of these issues.

The UK has also been opposed to patent waivers and reduced foreign aid. These are the issues that need to be focussed on here, not trying to discourage vaccination when it's not the bottleneck. I know less about other countries, but it is certainly the case in the UK.