Do you think that people with symptoms will increasingly choose not to get a pcr test? It kickstarts a whole chain of isolation, legal restrictions and after September, zero earnings / no furlough.
I can’t see that people will continue to put everyone else first this winter, as there is literally no benefit to most people to get that positive pcr result. I suspect most people will lie low for a couple of days with “a cold” and then get on with it.