Is the worst of coronavirus over now

[Sadless]

Does anyone think that the worst of its over and things will get better from now.
I know things are uncertain but it denifently looks better then a few months ago.

Hopeful

Sal

I hope the worst is over.

@Louisianna16

How many beds altogether do you have in your ICU?

• This isn’t particularly important since I’ve mentioned proportions, but it’s around 25 beds.

What number of your ICU beds are occupied by patients who were admitted to hospital solely because of complications from Covid caught elsewhere?

• Not sure what you mean. All caught Covid in community, got sick enough to come to hospital and then are sick enough to need respiratory support on ITU.

How many patients were admitted to the wards solely because of Covid and not another ailment/ problem , then picked up Covid or tested positive whilst in hospital?

• do you mean how many picked up Covid in hospital? None.

Whereabouts in the UK are you?

• I prefer not to say thank you.

Realistically what can 'we' do though?

There are billions of people living in what could be called 'less developed countries'. Many of these countries have high levels of corruption and very poor health infrastructure. I'm not sure what you expect 'us' to do

Very defeatist attitude.
We have almost eradicated Polio and Smallpox around the globe, its also quite a colonialist view to say poor corrupt nations, as if we somehow exist on the moral hi ground.

And do the countries themselves have any responsibility for their own problems, or is it just us?

Ridiculous but a tory attitude so no surprise - we leave em too it, new vaxx resistant strains emerge.

But without our help, we lose influence over many parts of the globe as China and Russia use vaccines.

So short sighted and inhumane.

My concern is that the virus will mutate to a form that harms/kills children next. The main reason many have been so blasé about it so far is that they assume anyone dying was already at death's door.
Children are the only remaining pool of unvaccinated people, and they are superspreaders. If they start needing hospital treatment or dying of a new variant it could all go sideways very quickly.

[quote ICUDoc]@Louisianna16

How many beds altogether do you have in your ICU?

• This isn’t particularly important since I’ve mentioned proportions, but it’s around 25 beds.

What number of your ICU beds are occupied by patients who were admitted to hospital solely because of complications from Covid caught elsewhere?

• Not sure what you mean. All caught Covid in community, got sick enough to come to hospital and then are sick enough to need respiratory support on ITU.

How many patients were admitted to the wards solely because of Covid and not another ailment/ problem , then picked up Covid or tested positive whilst in hospital?

• do you mean how many picked up Covid in hospital? None.

Whereabouts in the UK are you?

• I prefer not to say thank you.[/quote]

So EVERYONE of your Covid patients caught Covid in the community and became sick enough to need to go into hospital and become admitted?

No one is coming into hospital for something else and then testing positive on a routine test while in hospital.

Because that is the message we are getting that is happening.

Or are you just taking about your ITU rather than the whole hospital.

This is the thing that has been annoying me throughout the whole thing, no body giving context or even full facts.

No one knows. Unfortunately the last 18 months have demonstrated that government(s) are semi-competent at best. We collectively need our brightest minds making the crucial decisions, but with politics in most countries you’re lucky if you get a group of the top 5 - 10%.

Politicians excel at making pretty speeches, kowtowing to corporate interests, making excuses, and whipping up their base. None of which are useful tools in a global pandemic.

@SpringRainbow

I don’t think I professed to knowing ‘the whole thing’, I leave that to my colleagues seeing the full picture across the UK who are trained in epidemiology.

I am merely stating what is fact in my ITU. No agenda, no scaremongering, just fact. The whole hospital has about 50 patients with Covid, half of which are on our ITU. Of those in our ITU, all caught it in community. Three quarters are unvaccinated, the remaining quarter are vaccinated but at either extreme of age or have conditions with immuno-compromise.

Better be. My business is just opening in a few weeks

@ICUDoc

I can only say from what is happening in our hospital and intensive care unit and surrounding intensive care units. We are filling up again and they are talking about reducing elective work again to release staff to help. Transfers of patients are happening between units to aid bed capacity. Three quarters of our current cohort in ITU are young (20’s- 50’s) with no comorbidities, just unvaccinated. One quarter are vaccinated but have either extreme age or immunocompromise. We don’t know if we are reaching a peak or not. Let’s hope we are.

Sounds hard for everyone but also good to see vaccination holding up.

Hopefully it’s the peak and vaccination keeps getting higher.

@InMySpareTime

My concern is that the virus will mutate to a form that harms/kills children next. The main reason many have been so blasé about it so far is that they assume anyone dying was already at death's door. Children are the only remaining pool of unvaccinated people, and they are superspreaders. If they start needing hospital treatment or dying of a new variant it could all go sideways very quickly.

This is what keeps me up at night too. Or that a variant comes along with a much higher fatality rate. I should not have read the Sage papers last night.

We've completely failed to help less developed countries. That's where mutations have the potential to get completely out of control, and all it takes is one person to bring that mutation to another country and we're back to square one.

This is my worry too. I was reading an unrelated Times article this morning which suggested that 1.5% of the Kenyan population was vaccinated, for example.

[quote ICUDoc]@SpringRainbow

I don’t think I professed to knowing ‘the whole thing’, I leave that to my colleagues seeing the full picture across the UK who are trained in epidemiology.

I am merely stating what is fact in my ITU. No agenda, no scaremongering, just fact. The whole hospital has about 50 patients with Covid, half of which are on our ITU. Of those in our ITU, all caught it in community. Three quarters are unvaccinated, the remaining quarter are vaccinated but at either extreme of age or have conditions with immuno-compromise.[/quote]
Thank you for responding.

Tbh I am having a bad morning so didn’t mean to sound like I was accusing you of anything. Sorry.

Might not sound like it I am grateful for everything NHS is doing and has always done.

Who knows , who cares, live life .

This is what keeps me up at night too. Or that a variant comes along with a much higher fatality rate. I should not have read the Sage papers last night

lol ! just hold on to the belief that very deadly viruses tend to be not so transmissible.

We really do need to get vaxx into the arms of everyone, not fucking around sending dicks into space, use their money to do some good, we need a global effort but given our leaders, unlikely.

It keeps you up at night? that will kill you before Covid will .

My husband works at The Royal Berkshire Hospital. Over this past week the covid cases have rocketed. Its being referred to there as 'the football wave'.

Thing is that no one worried about a pandemic pre covid. Now everyone seems worried about this potential "new variant". Why are they worried now when they weren't 18 months ago. The chances of some new deadly pandemic virus appearing that is resistant to the vaccine is the same as it was 18 months ago for some new virus that was as potentially deadly as covid 19. There are always variants of the known viruses circulating all the time, most are pretty harmless to most people. We've had other potentially pandemic viruses in the last few decades which didn't reek havoc like covid 19. It's been a particularly special case both in terms of its' affects and in terms of the knee jerk reactions to it.

@clickychicky

I don't think it will ever be over

You sound as if you don't want it to be.

'Flu in 1918 anyone. Devastating pandemic and now only a vaccine annually fir the vulnerable.

I think we are. It's not over, but I don't think we'll have severe lockdowns again. Maybe some restrictions in winter like masks but not told to stay at home for 12 weeks.

@ActonSquirrel oh I want it to be over. Just don't see how we can win with all the variants. How did the flu of 1918 get less deadly? Did we evolve?

It's a bit more hopeful. However, there is another variant that they are keeping an eye on. USA does not have enough vaccinated people, but that's the same in many countries. Looking at other threads though Im truly sorry about how divisive this has all become. Im thinking of taking a break from the boards for a bit. In the main I think there are lovely people here. I've noticed a more disturbing element creeping in though. Take care everybody.

@jasjas1973

Realistically what can 'we' do though?

There are billions of people living in what could be called 'less developed countries'. Many of these countries have high levels of corruption and very poor health infrastructure. I'm not sure what you expect 'us' to do

Very defeatist attitude.
We have almost eradicated Polio and Smallpox around the globe, its also quite a colonialist view to say poor corrupt nations, as if we somehow exist on the moral hi ground.

And do the countries themselves have any responsibility for their own problems, or is it just us?

Ridiculous but a tory attitude so no surprise - we leave em too it, new vaxx resistant strains emerge.

But without our help, we lose influence over many parts of the globe as China and Russia use vaccines.

So short sighted and inhumane.

Not sure what you mean by a 'tory attitude' as I have never and will never vote Tory in my life.

Are you saying that developing nations are not in fact responsible for their own problems to at least some degree? To me that sounds like a 'colonialist view', as though people outside of the 'west' have no agency and are sitting passively waiting for 'us' to come in and save them.

And I'm all for helping out, but like others, you're rather vague on the details. Millions of vaccines have already been donated to developing nations, but it's going to take billions, and as someone above pointed out, many of the donated vaccine doses haven't been administered. I guess that's 'our' fault too?

Microbiology, officially. Pandemics are a niche interest of mine that nobody ever wanted to discuss until Covid

Smallpox had a (sort of) vaccine.

Spanish Flu didn’t, and we were less densely populated and didn’t travel as much as we did then.

This coming winter will be the deciding factor in whether the vaccines have as much efficacy as we think - due to the amount of mutations occurring with Covid right now. It’ll be interesting to see, from a science perspective.

Obviously I hope it’s mostly over - my MH has taken a fucking battering like never before due to the pandemic - but I’m cautiously optimistic.

[quote clickychicky]@ActonSquirrel oh I want it to be over. Just don't see how we can win with all the variants. How did the flu of 1918 get less deadly? Did we evolve?[/quote]
Spanish Flu:

It lasted 2 years, killed between 20-30 million, mostly due to the pneumonia caused by it - no antibiotics available at that time.

It ended due to most people who became infected dying, or developing immunity.

We didn’t have the medicine, skills, or knowledge that we do now.

The worst is behind us.

I think winter will be bumpy, although I don't think there will be another lockdown. Mind you, I said that this time last year and was so very wrong.