Is the worst of coronavirus over now

[Sadless]

Does anyone think that the worst of its over and things will get better from now.
I know things are uncertain but it denifently looks better then a few months ago.

Hopeful

Sal

@GetTaeFuck

Scientist here.

I want to say yes, but the science brain in me says wait for the second winter… Most pandemics have a worse second winter

After vaccination programme?

Can you give examples

@GetTaeFuck what other pandemics had a vaccine though?

Well, I’d say we (U.K., and Europe etc) are on our 2.5th winter?

No, whilst there were cases before February 2019, there were not high numbers, the first full winter was 2019/20, and next winter will be the second winter.

We're screwed

@GetTaeFuck

Scientist here.

I want to say yes, but the science brain in me says wait for the second winter… Most pandemics have a worse second winter

Isn’t it the second wave that tends to be worse, rather than related to the season?

@newnortherner111

Better in many respects, but we still have an incompetent misogynistic Prime Minister at the helm.

WTF has Boris Johnson being misogynistic got to do with Covid-19?

@Daisy829

Yes I think so but I think winter will be pretty crap with all winter bugs we avoided last year but once we are through that it will be much better again. I’m remaining hopeful.

This

From what I've read we're nearing herd immunity (from either confirmed positive infection or vaccine), and numbers seem to be dropping. It appears they're saying we're now over the worst in the U.K.

For uk, and Europe it definitely feels like this last week or so there has been a shift in attitude from worrying about covid to moving past and living with it.

@KurtWilde

From what I've read we're nearing herd immunity (from either confirmed positive infection or vaccine), and numbers seem to be dropping. It appears they're saying we're now over the worst in the U.K.

I heard a scientist say this on R4 news but didn’t catch the name

Hope so!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58029383

TL:DR - data is still messy, but some of the data sets used are showing some improvements

@lannistunut

Well, I’d say we (U.K., and Europe etc) are on our 2.5th winter?

No, whilst there were cases before February 2019, there were not high numbers, the first full winter was 2019/20, and next winter will be the second winter.

There were definitely thousands of cases before Christmas 2019. We just weren't looking for them. Water samples have picked up covid all over Europe since October 2019.

@Tuba437

For uk, and Europe it definitely feels like this last week or so there has been a shift in attitude from worrying about covid to moving past and living with it.

Thing is, I’m not really sure what the alternative is.

Society will not tolerate lockdowns and restrictions forever. Each and every wave has brought less and less tolerance and compliance with ‘the rules’. Even if you shut businesses (which are struggling to survive as it is) less and less people will stay away from loved ones.

There is also no appetite in society or even within World Leaders to attempt to achieve zero Covid (which would require a global effort). There are only a handful of countries that have even appeared to even attempt zero Covid.

That really only leaves figuring out a way to ‘live’ with the virus.

@SpringRainbow absolutely. It will be interesting over the next year or so aswell. I'm guessing next spring we may even stop testing. There has to be a point where we accept it as just another illness.

RoseAndRose

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58029383

TL:DR - data is still messy, but some of the data sets used are showing some improvements

Really useful article, thanks for sharing. I guess the summary then is that the jury is still out, but we should have a much better idea in a couple of weeks. Plenty of reason to be optimistic though!

We thought so this time last year.

It's a case of wait and see. And continue to be cautious.

[quote Tuba437]@SpringRainbow absolutely. It will be interesting over the next year or so aswell. I'm guessing next spring we may even stop testing. There has to be a point where we accept it as just another illness.[/quote]
Yeah, I think over Winter they will attempt to normalise testing and do away with isolation for all. There will be even more attempts to make the vaccine look attractive to those who are hesitant (today they appear to be targeting pregnant women).

Then (assuming it doesn’t all go really wrong) next year they will start phasing out testing and announcing daily figures. Spring would probably be the earliest this will happen. I would probably guess more towards summer though.

There were definitely thousands of cases before Christmas 2019. We just weren't looking for them. Water samples have picked up covid all over Europe since October 2019.

No idea what virus my then 8yo had mid-December 2019 but it floored him for a week and he had 3 months of post-viral fatigue. Had to give up pressing redial for the GP and a third of the class were ill with varying symptoms too.
It was an early "colds and flu" season that autumn admittedly not helped by a crap summer.

Commity cases have been retrospectively traced back via samples to about the point that China admitted there was an issue, but there is a lack of widespread evidence avaliable to test retrospectively.

There are billions of people in the 'developing world', almost none of whom have been vaccinated. Where exactly are all these billions of vaccines we can 'give them'?

Where indeed - and interestingly, someone linked an article saying that a number of developing countries aren't using enough of the vaccines they do have
Apparently this is because the training/infrastructure isn't in place, but how long it'll take until it is is anyone's guess

@MarshaBradyo I read this, it states information from the scientist I think you're referring to.

www.standard.co.uk/news/health/covid-pandemic-almost-over-herd-immunity-b948291.html

I can only say from what is happening in our hospital and intensive care unit and surrounding intensive care units. We are filling up again and they are talking about reducing elective work again to release staff to help. Transfers of patients are happening between units to aid bed capacity. Three quarters of our current cohort in ITU are young (20’s- 50’s) with no comorbidities, just unvaccinated. One quarter are vaccinated but have either extreme age or immunocompromise. We don’t know if we are reaching a peak or not. Let’s hope we are.

@Tuba437

Yes I agree cases were here before Feb 2019, but not in big numbers or we'd have had high admissions and deaths. So that was not our first proper winter imo.

I think it’s too soon to say over.
There is not enough vaccination to provide herd immunity to the Delta Variant - epidemiological modelling suggests you need 97 percent of population vaccinated to do that.
Because the third world is so poorly vaccinated there will be other variants emerge and there is a risk they may not be susceptible to vaccines and we will keep needing new vaccines which take time to develop.
We are a long way off it being over - whatever Boris says - the virus does not listen to him.
This is a completely novel virus. Other corona viruses present as colds - and look how ubiquitous they are. This will be as common as that but it will take a long , long time - no body is sure how long but could take many years.
There is nothing equivalent to this in modern human memory and the worlds population is huge now compared even to 2018.
Disclosing - GP in NZ.

@ICUDoc A few questions for you

How many beds altogether do you have in your ICU, ?

What number of your ICU beds are occupied by patients who were admitted to hospital solely because of complications from Covid caught elsewhere?

How many patients were admitted to the wards solely because of Covid and not another ailment/ problem , then picked up Covid or tested positive whilst in hospital?

Whereabouts in the UK are you?

Thanks.

ICUDoc you are amazing 💐