Infection rates continue to rise in England as cases fall

[noblegiraffe]

The ONS random sampling survey is out.

“ In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in the week ending 24 July 2021, though there are possible signs that the rate of increase may have slowed; we estimate that 856,200 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 798,600 to 915,000), equating to around 1 in 65 people.
In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive continued to increase in the week ending 24 July 2021; we estimate that 18,800 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 12,700 to 26,000), equating to around 1 in 160 people.
In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive continued to increase in the week ending 24 July 2021; we estimate that 27,200 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 18,200 to 38,200), equating to around 1 in 65 people.
In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in the most recent week ending 24 July 2021; we estimate that 49,500 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 38,300 to 62,300) equating to around 1 in 110 people.”

So rates falling in Scotland but not yet falling in England. There has also been quite a big increase in school-kids testing positive - the effects of schools closing not yet being felt.

This needs untangling to figure out what is going on with testing that caused such a drop in case numbers.

@TeloMere
He sounds such a knob!!!

Looking back to the start of the year, the first ONS survey that picked up a clear drop happening since December 29 was published on February 5, i.e. more than a month post the peak. The data set ran until January 30.

ONS lag is even more significant than I remembered.