Infection rates continue to rise in England as cases fall

[noblegiraffe]

The ONS random sampling survey is out.

“ In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in the week ending 24 July 2021, though there are possible signs that the rate of increase may have slowed; we estimate that 856,200 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 798,600 to 915,000), equating to around 1 in 65 people.
In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive continued to increase in the week ending 24 July 2021; we estimate that 18,800 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 12,700 to 26,000), equating to around 1 in 160 people.
In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive continued to increase in the week ending 24 July 2021; we estimate that 27,200 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 18,200 to 38,200), equating to around 1 in 65 people.
In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in the most recent week ending 24 July 2021; we estimate that 49,500 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 38,300 to 62,300) equating to around 1 in 110 people.”

So rates falling in Scotland but not yet falling in England. There has also been quite a big increase in school-kids testing positive - the effects of schools closing not yet being felt.

This needs untangling to figure out what is going on with testing that caused such a drop in case numbers.

Link to data www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

Just seen on the news the data is up to last Saturday so maybe it's next week's where we will see the true picture?

With schools out secondary pupils and teachers won’t be doing twice weekly lateral flow tests anymore so I expect less asymptotic cases are being caught.

Yeah the data is fucked by people refusing to test. There was a football effect but that's only a very small part of it.

And the sad thing is that the artificial drop has given Joe Public a false sense of security so they'll be throwing caution to the wind.

It looks like the drop in testing has been concentrated in the section of the population most likely to be infected.

@Popfan

Just seen on the news the data is up to last Saturday so maybe it's next week's where we will see the true picture?

Link?

@NannyAndJohn

Yeah the data is fucked by people refusing to test. There was a football effect but that's only a very small part of it.

And the sad thing is that the artificial drop has given Joe Public a false sense of security so they'll be throwing caution to the wind.

Cases have dropped by far more than testing has. Test positivity % has also decreased. So while lower testing may provide part of the answer, it’s by no means all of it.

I don't have a link but the analyst on BBC1 news was talking about the data and said it was data up to last Saturday.

Plus ONS data is always a week behind.

But cases were dropping before last Saturday?

The ONS survey suggests just over 950,000 people in the UK would test positive for coronavirus in the week to 24 July, up from 830,000 people the previous week

From the BBC website. Up to the 24th July. ONS data has been released a week in ‘arrears’ since it began.

And in the first section in the data link says this relates to testing up to the week ending 24th July.

Had a quick look through. It looks like the rising infection levels is in quite specific demographics.
All age groups apart from school age children. (2-16) are dropping. Which makes sense, they’re the ones that haven’t been vaccinated.

They’re also most likely to be asymptotic, so it isn’t surprising they’re being missed by testing now that lateral flows for school have stopped.

In looks regional as well, everywhere apart form the north east is either plateauing or dropping.

@Popfan

And in the first section in the data link says this relates to testing up to the week ending 24th July.

Sorry, I know it goes up to the 24th, I was hoping for an article discussing the data.

@noblegiraffe

But cases were dropping before last Saturday?

18th/19th/20th were the biggest peaks though, so within that w/e 24th we were also at our highest reported infection levels.

Let's wait until next weeks report to see if it then reflects the drop.

Sorry noble! I do think though that next week's ONS data will give a better picture to compare this week's falls than last week. Some schools didn't break up till Friday 23rd and most in my area were 21st.

That's on seven day rates by the way..... which is what the ONS use.

Agreed @BigWoollyJumpers

Some schools didn't break up till Friday 23rd

Quite a few broke up earlier though. That massive leap in secondary is quite something.

I think some people are doing home lat flow test and not telling NHS the result, this would be skewing the numbers. I've spoken to people who've done this, they get a pos result and don't get it confirmed with the other test because they don't want test and trace involved.

Met an antivaxer yesterday walking his father's dog, he happily informed me that he'd had Covid last week (didn't test but had the symptoms) and he was pleased because he'd built up natural immunity.

Then he mentioned that his 70 year old father (who I know has a heart condition and has had two jabs) was now ill with covid (confirmed) but "he'll be fine".

I tried to tell the son that he'd probably given his vulnerable dad Covid, but got shouted down and had to walk away.

I think the ONS figures might be a bit inflated because people can continue to test positive for some time after contracting Covid. Clearly this is far from the whole story though.

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Tim spectre talks about reasons for the figures in his update above. At one point he says the rapid fall in numbers reported by the govt is fishy and that a 30% decrease across two days just isn’t what happens in a pandemic.

Covid cases peaked on July 15 (4 days after Euro finals). People who tested positive at the peak were highly likely to continue testing positive up until July 24.

We discussed this topic several times on Data thread. ONS understates both the speed of growth and the pace of the drop. We have seen the identical picture in January 2021 when cases were falling rapidly but ONS didn’t pick it up until the middle of the month.

I struggle with the idea that sensible Scottish people test and stupid English people don’t which is the only way the “nobody is testing” argument works!

Far more logically is Scottish cases began falling before England and is now reflected in ons and English cases will now start a similar pattern which will be seen in next week’s ons report and yes that is true for hospital numbers too which if they lag cases on the way up must also lag cases on the way down.

I should say I don’t necessarily think that the English fall will be sustained in the same way the Scottish one has due to the wider reopening in July which Scotland hasn’t done yet but for now I think of the Scottish fall is real the English one must be at least for now even if there will be another rise shortly.

@Gingenius

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Tim spectre talks about reasons for the figures in his update above. At one point he says the rapid fall in numbers reported by the govt is fishy and that a 30% decrease across two days just isn’t what happens in a pandemic.

Same has happened in Netherlands though. Even greater drop off there, and following a similar pattern to us. They are also very similar in their opening up strategy and vaccination status.