What do you think will happen over winter?

[brideyb]

Restriction wise. I'm feeling very gloomy / anxious about it! My sister is getting married and I desperately hope it can go ahead.

@RoseAndRose

I think when you have a senior ICU professor who has spent over a year working almost entirely with covid , saying some activities are just too risky, it's worth listening.

He's not advocating continuing lockdown. Or saying that going to the pub is too risky. He is saying that being in a crowded indoors space yelling at a screen for 80mins is too much.

The comparison to having an accident doesn't really stand up - we mitigate against accidents all the time, and yes you could be killed on any road, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea to play chicken on a dual carriageway

At this point though that should be down to the individual to decide. If I want to go in a crowded indoor space then that's no one else's business really, it's my risk to take. Anyone who doesn't want to do it doesn't have to.

He is saying that being in a crowded indoors space yelling at a screen for 80mins is too much.

Too much for his own personal risk tolerance, okay, he gets to make that call.

Objectively ‘too much’ for the population in general though? For people who are vaccinated and who were at very low risk of ending up in ICU if they caught covid even before that? No, it really isn’t.

People like having a social life. It is good for people to do social activities. Expecting people to massively cut back on that for decades because there is a very-low-but-non-zero risk of dying of covid specifically is neither proportionate nor realistic.

Social isolation raises risk of death from a number of causes, raises risk of developing illnesses such as dementia. Staying at home is ‘risky’ too.

@GoldenOmber

Social isolation raises risk of death from a number of causes, raises risk of developing illnesses such as dementia. Staying at home is ‘risky’ too.

Good job that's not remotely what the article was saying then!

There’s no doubt the damage caused to some groups was large - eg isolating elderly or lost education

Stay ‘Safe’ was used successfully over last 18 months but it’s losing its usefulness now.

The harms of keeping us apart outweigh the benefits of hospitalisation is within capacity.

I’m really glad the word sage is losing it’s ability to change behaviour of majority. I also know risk us very low so now I’m ok with living doing stuff I enjoy rather than continue to modify.

Of - if hospitalisation

Good job that's not remotely what the article was saying then!

I didn’t say it was!

But if you’re comparing going to watch rugby at the pub to playing chicken on a dual carriageway, you presumably also think social isolation is incredibly dangerous and a risk that we will choose/be ordered not to tolerate too? So how do we balance those risks, if not by letting people make their own decisions?

Professor Doom (sorry, Ferguson) himself is saying we will be over the worst of the pandemic by autumn. So I choose to be optimistic.

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-coronavirus-pandemic-over-september-vaccines-neil-ferguson-b947801.html

You are making erroneous assumptions.

@RoseAndRose

You are making erroneous assumptions.

Which ones?

The comparison to having an accident doesn't really stand up - we mitigate against accidents all the time

No, the comparison is very valid

We have mitigations against covid now too in the form of vaccination.

None of the ‘mitigations’ cited for accidents impinge upon our quality of life in any significant way. They are very minor things. We could do a huge amount more to minimise RTA deaths, but we don’t, because we have become comfortable with a certain amount of deaths and more actions would impinge on our lifestyles. The same will ultimately be true for covid.

So long as childcare and early years/key stage 1 stays open it will be more bearable than either of the two lockdowns so far as I will just put DD in playgroup/ preschool for 4 or 5 full days a week. It will be my chance to complete some lockdown projects finally.

Hopefully everything will stay open though.

If I want to go in a crowded indoor space then that's no one else's business really, it's my risk to take
The problem is though, that you’ll subsequently go to work or to a supermarket or dentist etc and take your germs with you to infect others. You’re not only putting yourself at risk, you’re putting everyone you come in contact with at risk.

The problem is though, that you’ll subsequently go to work or to a supermarket or dentist etc and take your germs with you to infect others

But now, with widespread vaccination, there's a limit to how much curtailing of their lives people are prepared to do for others.

Just like they didn't curtail their lives for the immuno-compromised before. Just like they drive cars knowing there's a small chance they could hurt/kill someone. Just like they continue to contribute to air pollution that causes respiratory illness and cancers. Etc, etc.

The problem is though, that you’ll subsequently go to work or to a supermarket or dentist etc and take your germs with you to infect others. You’re not only putting yourself at risk, you’re putting everyone you come in contact with at risk

But it isn't going to go away, ever. The risk will always be there. Humans have always transmitted germs to other humans and always will. We locked down, repeatedly and now we have highly effective vaccines. If that isn't enough then what will be?

@breadwidow

Just read an article in the guardian with the most depressing quote ever from a professor of intensive care medicine

Montgomery, 58, said he did not believe life would return to normal in his lifetime and that people would remain cautious, adding that mask wearing should continue while hopefully people will try to live more of their lives outside.

[[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/29/uk-covid-cases-rise-second-day-running-amid-drop-testing?CMP=Share]]iOSAppp_Other

So now I'm feeling more depressed re winter than I was

He sounds unwell.

[quote RosaMoline]@PigeonPink - TWENTY YEARS?!
f**k that!
I genuinely don’t understand the pessimism on this forum. We have the vaccines, things are looking up hopefully? Why should we back to square one in a few months?[/quote]
We'll be far more bothered about the impact of climate change in 5-10 years than Covid 19.

@PigeonPink

If I want to go in a crowded indoor space then that's no one else's business really, it's my risk to take The problem is though, that you’ll subsequently go to work or to a supermarket or dentist etc and take your germs with you to infect others. You’re not only putting yourself at risk, you’re putting everyone you come in contact with at risk.

That's life now. Covid isn't going away. I've had my vaccinations and I'm not willing to put my life on hold forevermore. What is the alternative?

I can’t foresee a time when I’ll feel safe in a pub or busy place

Sorry not read the full thread but things like this really confuse me.

Covid is a novel virus hence the need for (temporary) restrictions but it is far from being the most dangerous virus that has ever existed. You could have caught flu in a crowded place prior to March 2020 and died a horrible death (many flu varients are not in the vaccine). This level of fear now I can accept (albeit is still a bit out of proportion) but forever?

What is different about covid?

And don't say variants because flu has them too...

But it isn't going to go away, ever. The risk will always be there. Humans have always transmitted germs to other humans and always will. We locked down, repeatedly and now we have highly effective vaccines. If that isn't enough then what will be?

100% agree.

Covid isn’t going anywhere - the ‘risk’ will always be there.

We cannot live in masks and fear forever. Life has to get back to normal at some point and as has been said, if the vaccination scheme isn’t enough to justify that, then I don’t know what ever will be.

He lost his son, @PicsInRed. Have some fucking empathy.

Looking at his leisure activities (sky diving, hill walking etc) I’d say he has a pretty good grasp of how to calculate risks.

Looking at his leisure activities (sky diving, hill walking etc) I’d say he has a pretty good grasp of how to calculate risks.

That … doesn’t make any sense at all

Does it not, TheKeatingFive? Oh well, not sure how to simplify it further for you

How about….I trust the advice of someone who can calculate risk associated with dangerous sports but who wouldn’t choose to swap Covid-ridden air molecules in a crowded pub with others at the moment?
Or does your disingenuousness prevent you understanding that also?