"Forcing children to self isolate was needless"

[Greentrees2021]

News today of Oxford study that has found daily testing of children who are contacts to be just as effective at stopping spread as 10 day isolations.

The results show "98.4% of children sent home never went on to develop Covid."

I think many parents have known this anecdotally for a long time.

What I am worried about is that this Oxford University study compared isolating to testing contacts and found no difference. However where was the control group of "do nothing"? It really worries me that we are not trialling a 3rd option which is isolate the child with symptoms and let the other kids get on with life. 98.4% aren't catching it anyway and others that do will show symptoms and can then isolate themselves?! Why are we persisting with all this testing without conclusively proving that there's a value to that?

98.4% missed school when they need not have done.

Isolating is ending now but yes it could have been useful before

I can’t see any reason LFTs wouldn’t ‘work as well’ on primary children, but I don’t think primary schools were part of the trial.

I don't think many parents would administer throat and nose swabs twice weekly on a young child. I don't know any parents in my Y1 class who ever tested their young child more than once in the whole pandemic. The tests were only done on adults / older siblings.

"I’ve noticed that more children are getting it in bubbles now, whereas previously there was only the one positive case which caused the bubble to burst."

They could be independent infections due to more opportunities to socialise generally and many children still meeting up with friends when they are told to isolate. I don't think we can know in how many cases it was spread within school.

A few months ago I would have believed that most children sent home to isolate don’t develop Covid but not now. My son got sent home as part of a burst bubble a few days ago and several of the children he was with are now sick, with positive lateral flows and waiting PCR results. A friend said recently that at her children’s school, the first bubble burst on Friday night with one case and by Tuesday the whole school was closed, with cases in each year group. The new variant spreads like wildfire.

@Sleepyblueocean

"I’ve noticed that more children are getting it in bubbles now, whereas previously there was only the one positive case which caused the bubble to burst."

They could be independent infections due to more opportunities to socialise generally and many children still meeting up with friends when they are told to isolate. I don't think we can know in how many cases it was spread within school.

Maybe in teens but our outbreak was definitely school driven. Year 6. No bubble closure during the whole pandemic, we have been lucky (middle class school, majority of parents able to wfh and sticking to rules). Then 8 children and a teacher in the same bubble independently catch separate covid infections within the space of 8 days? I don't think so.

@lannistunut

98.4% missed school when they need not have done.

Most people won't claim on their insurance this year. Common sense says cancel your policy.

Only a tiny percentage of mammograms find camcer. Common sense says don't bother with your mammogram.

Common sense says common sense is usually bull shit.

Yes if you think of isolating as a proportion of life, a 5 year old isolating for 10 days is equivalent to a 50 year old isolating for 100 days. Would you still be as keen for a mammogram if you had to isolate for 100 days before each one? There are huge downsides to isolating which is why common sense has to prevail over science sometimes

Yes if you think of isolating as a proportion of life, a 5 year old isolating for 10 days is equivalent to a 50 year old isolating for 100 days. Would you still be as keen for a mammogram if you had to isolate for 100 days before each one? There are huge downsides to isolating which is why common sense has to prevail over science sometimes

Yes it is inconvenient, but no it is not equivalent to 100 days, it is what it is which is 10 days.

I think you don't really understand the scientific and frankly mathematical justifications for the introduction of isolation, so your common sense is actually common nonsense.

We can't just scrap public health measures because the public don't understand science.

if you think of isolating as a proportion of life, a 5 year old isolating for 10 days is equivalent to a 50 year old isolating for 100 days.

Honestly, words fail me. This isn’t logical at all. Common sense really isn’t that common.

If you think of isolation as the amount of remaining life you have to live , then a child had so much more life to live

Imagine the headlines , imagine how children would feel if the headline was " failure to isolate children led to 20,000 extra deaths"

We can't just scrap public health measures because the public don't understand science.

We can use science to identify public health measures which achieve the same results with less damaging interventions, though, which is what this study aimed to do. So that’s a very positive thing.

@GoldenOmber

We can't just scrap public health measures because the public don't understand science.

We can use science to identify public health measures which achieve the same results with less damaging interventions, though, which is what this study aimed to do. So that’s a very positive thing.

It is funny how they haven't done any studies into how many fewer cases we would have if they just installed fucking air filters in schools

As pp said, I think study was done on old variants. We had no cases at my dc's school whole year, until the last few weeks of the school year. It was quite scary how many cases are popping up here and there, and multiple children tested positive. My dc's school kept mask wearing until the end of term.
If no precaution was taken, I'm sure it could have been a lot worse.

As pp said, I think study was done on old variants.

It was done this year, overlapping with the time delta became the predominant strain.

We can use science to identify public health measures which achieve the same results with less damaging interventions, though, which is what this study aimed to do. So that’s a very positive thing.

The problem is people who only want the do nothing option. I understand that isolating has a serious downside. Regular testing may be momentarily unpleasant, but doesn’t have much downside other than people not liking sticking things up their noses. And yet so many people are reluctant to test but prefer to spread Covid through the population.

Let's face it, this study isn't going to be used.

In September, there are no plans for ANY response to a positive case in a school.

IF test and trace manage to contact a close contact (which in itself is VERY doubtful), it will be suggested that they take a PC. End of story. All close contacts remain in school, no isolation, no mandatory testing, no daily testing.

Most cases won't be identified at all, tbh - the guidance for secondary is for 2 LFTs to be offered before going into school (but children can refuse) and until the end of September twice weekly LFTs are advised (again, not mandatory, anyone can opt out). Someone with symptoms MIGHT test, but obviously with no isolation for anyone except those testing positive, the tendency to have a couple of days off for 'a cold' and then return to school will be that much greater.

Nothing at all for primary, who IME are never tested except if a whole family goes down. I suspect even that won't happen since they won't be required to isolate from August 16th if another child or adult in their family tests positive - they will be allowed into school completely as normal.

PCR, not PC.

This graph shows what a mess the daily LFT arm was.

Basically, out of close contacts who were offered the option to test rather than isolate, overall, under half actually did.

So if the school was riddled with covid, or if a close contact thought it was too risky to do LF testing, they weren't included.

Basically only those least at risk, or who considered themselves least at risk, did the LFTs.

@noblegiraffe

This graph shows what a mess the daily LFT arm was.

Basically, out of close contacts who were offered the option to test rather than isolate, overall, under half actually did.

So if the school was riddled with covid, or if a close contact thought it was too risky to do LF testing, they weren't included.

Basically only those least at risk, or who considered themselves least at risk, did the LFTs.

A lot of the 'trials' involving LFTs have been flawed.

The big event trials were deemed successful, but the follow up PCR rate was extremely low so the data was not robust.

What we do know is - loads of Covid spread at Wembley despite higher vaccination rate because the LFT testing is not good enough and the case rate was too high for that type of event to be a good idea.

But we bought the tests, so we have to justify them, even if there are more cases/hospitalisations/deaths as a result.

It is funny how they haven't done any studies into how many fewer cases we would have if they just installed fucking air filters in schools

It’s not really a ‘just’, it would be a pretty massive project across all schools! But it would be good to have some proper evidence around what level of ventilation makes a decent difference. Seems a bit of a weak spot at the moment when official guidance everywhere is “increase ventilation!… by, I dunno, opening a window 🤷‍♀️“

A trial would only need a small number to take part, though, that is the point of a study.

They do not want this evidence as they do not want to have to invest.

They have already bought the stupid tests so they need to use them, it is sunk money.

Oh, yes, I’m not saying the trial would be ridiculously difficult, just that ‘better ventilation’ in school buildings is a much bigger task than it often gets presented as.

Which of course would be even more of a reason to do some decent testing on what sort of ventilation we actually need so we can work on that, rather than more faffing around with handwashing and wiping down chairs…

The school i work in has air filters due to it being very close to a major road. I do wonder if it has helped. Staff did get covid but from their own children at different schools.

The DfE have recently announced an investigation into ventilation in schools.

www.tes.com/news/covid-schools-ventilation-classrooms-government-measure-air-quality-classrooms

Bit fucking late.

@noblegiraffe

The DfE have recently announced an investigation into ventilation in schools.

www.tes.com/news/covid-schools-ventilation-classrooms-government-measure-air-quality-classrooms

Bit fucking late.

That's good news surely