"Forcing children to self isolate was needless"

[Greentrees2021]

News today of Oxford study that has found daily testing of children who are contacts to be just as effective at stopping spread as 10 day isolations.

The results show "98.4% of children sent home never went on to develop Covid."

I think many parents have known this anecdotally for a long time.

What I am worried about is that this Oxford University study compared isolating to testing contacts and found no difference. However where was the control group of "do nothing"? It really worries me that we are not trialling a 3rd option which is isolate the child with symptoms and let the other kids get on with life. 98.4% aren't catching it anyway and others that do will show symptoms and can then isolate themselves?! Why are we persisting with all this testing without conclusively proving that there's a value to that?

The trial wasn’t to see whether a positive child would infect others. (Which is likely why ‘do nothing’ wasn’t considered as an alternative.) The positive child was still sent home to isolate whether in contact testing or isolation.

The difference is whether the daily contact testing picks up enough onward infections to stop it spreading even further, compared to sending all contacts home to isolate. Which the study says it does, so, result!

I’ve noticed that more children are getting it in bubbles now, whereas previously there was only the one positive case which caused the bubble to burst.

That study is possibly obsolete now. A comparison should be done on how many children in the last 2 months in the same bubble have tested positive

So how many families will do the daily testing @GoldenOmber? How many parents on here complained about the twice weekly testing of secondary pupils, how many people on here say they refuse to do testing? What about Primary children, do LFTs work as well on them?

OP we are going to experience the “do nothing” option, from August 16th when no close contacts under 18 have to isolate!

Some good points on this thread. The lead scientist was interviewed on R4 (about 6.50 if you want to find it on BBC Sounds) and pointed out that LFTs for all weren’t available to schools until March and that the virus wasn’t very prevalent for much of the study (19 Apr - 29 June).

modmedmicro.nsms.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/dct_schools_trial_preprint_20210722.pdf

@Greentrees2021

News today of Oxford study that has found daily testing of children who are contacts to be just as effective at stopping spread as 10 day isolations.

The results show "98.4% of children sent home never went on to develop Covid."

I think many parents have known this anecdotally for a long time.

What I am worried about is that this Oxford University study compared isolating to testing contacts and found no difference. However where was the control group of "do nothing"? It really worries me that we are not trialling a 3rd option which is isolate the child with symptoms and let the other kids get on with life. 98.4% aren't catching it anyway and others that do will show symptoms and can then isolate themselves?! Why are we persisting with all this testing without conclusively proving that there's a value to that?

I'm more concerned about the significant group of parents who won't test if the children stay in school. You know the same parents who don't rid of nits, care for their children within bare minimum standards, send to school if ill ...

Daily testing only workings if all parents do it or the school takes responsibility for it!

@ineedaholidaynow

I’ve noticed that more children are getting it in bubbles now, whereas previously there was only the one positive case which caused the bubble to burst.

That study is possibly obsolete now. A comparison should be done on how many children in the last 2 months in the same bubble have tested positive

We've found the same at our school. Obviously it's only anecdotal, but until the Delta varient took hold our bubbles would be the positive case and then nothing else. Since Delta, the initial positive case has always resulted in others testing positive.

@ineedaholidaynow

So how many families will do the daily testing *@GoldenOmber*? How many parents on here complained about the twice weekly testing of secondary pupils, how many people on here say they refuse to do testing? What about Primary children, do LFTs work as well on them?

Well, probably not everyone will follow it precisely, no. But how many teenagers sent home to self-isolate are staying in their rooms all day for the whole isolation period, do you think? We have to compare alternatives against the world we’ve actually got.

I can’t see any reason LFTs wouldn’t ‘work as well’ on primary children, but I don’t think primary schools were part of the trial.

This is good news. We have, through a proper scientific trial, identified an alternative to close contact isolation which keeps more children in school while not increasing spread. That’s good! It’s a good thing!

We've found delta much worse at infecting others in the bubble. Every single bubble isolating since June has had at least one (and usually more) cases on top of the first case. One class had 7 other children infected.

My DD’s (big secondary) school participated in the trial. We are in south west London and her school is in an area where delta took hold very early (a surge testing area very early on). The trial ended in June but definitely (in our case) included a big delta surge.

On the trial if someone tested positive, they went home to isolate as per usual. The close contacts (not whole class but contacts identified by the positive person, seating plans etc) had to do tests every day instead of being sent home (although they were only allowed to be at home or in school - they weren’t allowed out generally). This only applies to contacts who had no symptoms - as soon as anyone developed symptoms they had to go home until negative PCR test.

98.4% missed school when they need not have done. However, if you say anything that the over the top will say you are throwing teachers under a bus (surely they have all had it numerous times already given the highest risk level in the land).

Hopefully common sense will prevail in September and daily testing for contacts whilst attending school will replace mass sending home.

@PatrickTheFox

My DD’s (big secondary) school participated in the trial. We are in south west London and her school is in an area where delta took hold very early (a surge testing area very early on). The trial ended in June but definitely (in our case) included a big delta surge.

On the trial if someone tested positive, they went home to isolate as per usual. The close contacts (not whole class but contacts identified by the positive person, seating plans etc) had to do tests every day instead of being sent home (although they were only allowed to be at home or in school - they weren’t allowed out generally). This only applies to contacts who had no symptoms - as soon as anyone developed symptoms they had to go home until negative PCR test.

I'm quite happy to test daily to avoid missing education.

I'm more concerned about the significant group of parents who won't test if the children stay in school. You know the same parents who don't rid of nits, care for their children within bare minimum standards, send to school if ill ...

There will be a lot of these in most schools. i want my daughter back in proper education but this is where I feel wary.

Hopefully common sense will prevail in September and daily testing for contacts whilst attending school will replace mass sending home.

They’re deliberately infecting kids from September so schools won’t be sending any contacts home.

Test and Trace will be suggesting that anyone named as a contact by the child (nothing to do with the school) gets a PCR.

Anywhere running their pandemic response on common sense would be pretty worrying.

And what was the basis of this policy change minister? Oh I asked some random parent for their common sense view and decided to do that.

FFS. Common sense vs scientific knowledge.

Common sense usually = idiocy tbh.

@TheTallOakTrees

98.4% missed school when they need not have done. However, if you say anything that the over the top will say you are throwing teachers under a bus (surely they have all had it numerous times already given the highest risk level in the land).

Hopefully common sense will prevail in September and daily testing for contacts whilst attending school will replace mass sending home.

Scientists have years of training and experience under their belt. They don’t rock up and just use their common sense when dealing with a pandemic.

Thankfully.

1 child infecting 1.6 children is exponential growth. That’s not including the people that would potentially get infected from kids at hobbies, socialising, family contact etc. So an r of over 2 at least. And when was this study performed? Unless it’s very recent it won’t be with delta.

98.4% missed school when they need not have done.

Most people won't claim on their insurance this year. Common sense says cancel your policy.

Only a tiny percentage of mammograms find camcer. Common sense says don't bother with your mammogram.

Common sense says common sense is usually bull shit.

But where are they getting the info? Dd was told to isolate by school, all of our house has ended up with it, definitely that, we all isolated together from her being sent home.

Went to input the info on the gov website but there is no way of communicating that it came from a school setting for the adults. I just got a message saying someone will be in touch with me 🙄

Another anecdotal experience: from September to this May, every positive case attempt school didn't go on to cause a second in the same bubble more than a couple of times. Since June, we've had 2-8 cases in the same class, multiple times, as have all the other schools I'm aware of locally. Still counting cases in two classes since we broke up! I think it's obvious Delta is much, much more transmissible

@girlmom21

Self isolating for nursery children is happening until next month though - as we discovered last night 😩

@girlmom21 our nursery had a positive case confirmed on Monday...no one has been asked to isolate following the 19th July update.

I don't know the details of the case but I assume there must be some different interpretation of the rules now bubbles have gone

@Flossing that's interesting to know... I don't understand the rules anymore. I thought children under 18 don't need to isolate after 16th august but I'll wait until track and trace get it touch and air on the side of caution until then

@DanglingMod

Another anecdotal experience: from September to this May, every positive case attempt school didn't go on to cause a second in the same bubble more than a couple of times. Since June, we've had 2-8 cases in the same class, multiple times, as have all the other schools I'm aware of locally. Still counting cases in two classes since we broke up! I think it's obvious Delta is much, much more transmissible

It does seem to be the case; especially in schools, that Delta is leading to many more cases. Obviously it's all anecdotal, but there's been a very noticable difference between the variants and the way they spread in the classroom.

Delta is nothing like Alpha. It spreads in classrooms like wildfire.

Well ok yes it probably is the case that the mumsnet option of schools with space (ie a school where only 50 percent of kids attend since that is the only way to get more space) probably was safer!

As the parent of a non key worker kid who would miss years of school under the mumsnet plan however this seems to support that it is a much better option to do testing rather than isolation. But then mumsnet never really have cared about the fifty percent of kids excluded from the classroom during the “more space plan” nor have we seen the study that shows watching bbc bite size for these kids achieves the same as in school education for those entitled to attend.

The results show "98.4% of children sent home never went on to develop Covid."

Really. Right at the end we get to this. I remember thinking this would be useful last year