We can’t achieve herd immunity by letting Covid spread (or with the current vaccines)

[Turquoisesol]

It isn’t really possible to reach herd immunity and Britain will not do this by deliberately infecting large numbers of people. Many people seem to be under the impression that by letting it rip we will eventually reach herd immunity but it almost certainly won’t happen.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

'It's still early days'

This is the bit people dont seem to get. Yes we will learn to live with it, yes it will eventually become like flu. But we are a few years from that yet and there will be ups and downs, good periods and bad. Things may get back to normal for a bit and then we need to restrict again.

And if you look back to the start this is what scientists told us, we just weren't ready to hear it.

We will adapt to this as we have to many other big changes in the world.

@trappedsincesundaymorn

I've been trying to warn people that our government's roadmap is a one way ticket to a devastating Third Wave.

No one listened.

And it turned out I was right

At last something to makes you happy. The glee that comes across in your post is tangible. I guess (hope), your work here is done.

I wish I'd been wrong. Trust me, I wish I'd been wrong.

But you can't argue with simple mathematics.

@Turquoisesol

It is frustrating continually watching the government make these wrong decisions though. Sometimes it is just a need to discuss is the reason for posting?

I thought the point from CMO was we use summer firebreak (schools) to deal with peak.

How would you do it?

@Sparklingbrook

I've been trying to warn people that our government's roadmap is a one way ticket to a devastating Third Wave.

No one listened.

Yes, I've seen your extensive daily warnings, they appear on every thread. What I don't understand is why you are so obsessed with 'warning' everyone. Why does it matter if someone on the internet is right or wrong? Unless there's a huge prize maybe?

Because maybe I'll make people think twice and take their heads out of the sand.

With the right-wing press continuing to push the "it's over' narrative, it's easy to see why some may not understand the seriousness of the situation we are in.

@helpfulperson

'It's still early days'

This is the bit people dont seem to get. Yes we will learn to live with it, yes it will eventually become like flu. But we are a few years from that yet and there will be ups and downs, good periods and bad. Things may get back to normal for a bit and then we need to restrict again.

And if you look back to the start this is what scientists told us, we just weren't ready to hear it.

We will adapt to this as we have to many other big changes in the world.

Yep.

Despite the sceptics smugly proclaiming "it's over", we're still in the early stages of the pandemic.

But you can't argue with simple mathematics

Tbf out of all the posters on here the maths you’ve used has been wrong a few times.

Other posters gave more solid workings and reasoning.

Because maybe I'll make people think twice and take their heads out of the sand

Unlikely. The sheer quantity and content of your posts is probably making people and likely to scroll on by.

'Some may not understand' is particularly patronising.

People on MN are capable of finding their own factual information (without all the dramatic language) should they wish.

@NannyAndJohn except that your maths were wrong. You said that we would have 21,000 cases on 21 June - WRONG! You also said that we will have 100,000 cases on 19 July. Unless they double over night, you will be wrong again. People were not saying that we would never get to 100,000. They were saying that your calculations were wrong - which they were.

We had 16000 on 21st June. Not far off.

We're less than one doubling time away from 100000. So I won't be far off there either.

I did look at the first maths post but when everyone pointed out it was based on dodgy assumptions I looked for better posts on it.

There is some solid info on here luckily

@NannyAndJohn

We had 16000 on 21st June. Not far off.

We're less than one doubling time away from 100000. So I won't be far off there either.

You may think you're not far off but you're not exactly right either are you?

“well I was technically wrong, but at a deeper level I was basically right” is probably not going to make anybody think twice about anything else you might say.

@NannyAndJohn don’t know what went wrong there with my post. You said 100,000 on 21 June. You can’t even remember what you’ve posted. Says it all really!

Pick a number, double it, multiply by 37, add a dose of scaremongering etc etc

@NannyAndJohn - your earlier post in case you forgot it.

The prediction was 100,000 on June 21 but it was 16000

And pp is saying not far off?

No wonder people have just stopped paying attention to the dodgy maths

'The fateful day.' Good grief.

@MarshaBradyo and nanny couldn’t even remember that they said 100,000 on June 21. Glad I made that mistake in my earlier post.

Yep, nanny is lying when they say they were right and everyone else should have listened.

No one denied cases and deaths would rise. Nanny is lying when they say that.

Bunsy the heavy weight and duty of being the internet doomsayer ;

Always right in one’s mind - maybe counts for something somewhere

There was a thread months ago of people saying they’d been called doomers and laughed at on here at the start of the pandemic for predicting it all, but lo they’d been right all along. But if you went back and looked at the actual threads from early 2020, it’s about 50% stuff they got right (school closures, national lockdown) and 50% really not (people dropping dead in the streets of Nuneaton, NHS overwhelmed by stabbings from all the anti-lockdown riots).

I suspect they didn’t remember the detail though or consider it that important, just remembered “I thought it was going to be bad and it was so I was right.”

@Bordois

Yep, nanny is lying when they say they were right and everyone else should have listened.

No one denied cases and deaths would rise. Nanny is lying when they say that.

I don't know how you've managed to avoid the plethora of threads and posts stating that the link between cases and deaths is "broken".

Or the long running thread "Deaths aren't increasing" which is often on page 1.

@NannyAndJohn you sound like you’re loving this. It’s grim. Try reading the room a bit. By all means make your own posts, make as many as you want. But maybe stop jumping on EVERY post where it’s clear people are really struggling mentally and bleating on making the same statements over and over again. Just because you can say something doesn’t mean you should.

Why do people care so much about being right? What does it matter? That's what I don't get. Wanting to shout 'I told you so' and whine that people aren't listening.

But then there's 'right' and 'not far off' which are totally different things.

Nanny, proof of your lies have been posted numerous times, bluster all you want but a lot of people on here have seen it.