We can’t achieve herd immunity by letting Covid spread (or with the current vaccines)

[Turquoisesol]

It isn’t really possible to reach herd immunity and Britain will not do this by deliberately infecting large numbers of people. Many people seem to be under the impression that by letting it rip we will eventually reach herd immunity but it almost certainly won’t happen.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

You do know that nearly everyone who catches it is absolutely fine, don’t you?

@SeaShoreGalore

You do know that nearly everyone who catches it is absolutely fine, don’t you?

So are people who catch polio.

Until they're not.

So are people who catch polio.

Until they're not.

@NannyAndJohn yup we’re fucked. It is the end of times

@Choux

The human race is nothing if not tenacious! We've survived every major infectious disease thrown at us as a species for thousands of years.

The human race has survived every infectious disease but plenty of individual humans have not!

So it's understandable that people are concerned. While most people who have died are older or CEV you can get 30 yr olds dying and 100 yr olds being asymptomatic.

That's why we have to give every individual the best possible chance of prevention and recovery through vaccination and treatment.

We won't be able to save everyone though, we've never managed to save everyone from any infectious disease. I worry a bit that there is now a fairly prevalent view that all deaths from covid are preventable and so when they occur it must be the fault of the government/pubs/people not complying with rules/not wearing masks/attending the football etc etc etc and if everyone just pulled their socks up all covid deaths could be avoided. I'm not convinced they can be.

@IcedPurple

Would anyone else like to ban the expression 'letting it rip'?

No, I find it a really useful filtering tool, like when a man says he's a really "genuine guy". It's good information.

Same @PicsInRed

There's no way out, is there?

The End Is Nigh!

I can’t take people that say ‘let it rip’ seriously. There’s so many of them now. I wonder if they all think they’re the first to say it.

@IcedPurple

Would anyone else like to ban the expression 'letting it rip'?

God yes. It’s awful anyway but my dad always called farts “rippers” when we were kids, so I'm just thinking of flatulence every time I read it.

@TheKeatingFive

But what if we can't?

Seriously?

We already know we can’t, people die, from many causes, even in the richest countries in the world.

Now we’ve got one more thing on the list you can die from.

Life is risky and death is guaranteed.

Thats my point!

@PicsInRed

There's no way out, is there?

The End Is Nigh!

There's no need to be dramatic.

Infectious disease control works.

Our government just has to choose to do it.

Rather than choose to let things get out of control, have a lockdown, nearly get to a good place, do something to make things spiral out of control again, have a lockdown, nearly get to a good place, do something to make things spiral out of control again, have a lockdown...

How many more years do we want to live like this?

Flatulence/hot air. I see the connection.

How many more years do we want to live like this?

Zero. I'm extremely pleased about Monday, and long may normality continue.

@IcedPurple

Would anyone else like to ban the expression 'letting it rip'?

Reminds me of a fart under a duvet.

@PicsInRed

How many more years do we want to live like this?

Zero. I'm extremely pleased about Monday, and long may normality continue.

Let's circle back to this in a month.

I think it will linger into 2023... at least

Ok maybe I will use “let it spread uncontrolled through the community “ now if let it rip is annoying everyone!
It’s not going to behave the same way as flu though. Flu has r number about 1.4. They say that unchecked delta could have r number 7. So it will spread through communities much more quickly unfortunately.

@IcedPurple

Would anyone else like to ban the expression 'letting it rip'?

Yes please

@PicsInRed

How many more years do we want to live like this?

Zero. I'm extremely pleased about Monday, and long may normality continue.

I give it 2 weeks and it will be far from normal.

Ok maybe I will use “let it spread uncontrolled through the community “ now if let it rip is annoying everyone!

It’s hardly ‘uncontrolled’ when we’ve vaccinated most of the adult population.

Flu has r number about 1.4. They say that unchecked delta could have r number 7.

Part of the reason for that with flu is a high degree of previous exposure to flu in the population.

@IcedPurple

Would anyone else like to ban the expression 'letting it rip'?

Yep! I hate it! I live in the area with the highest rates in the country where you could say it has "ripped". About 20 people i am close to, either colleagues or friends, have had covid in the last 3 weeks. They're all fine.

@Sunshinegirl82

We don't have herd immunity to flu either but we manage and the vast majority don't give flu a second thought.

Not reaching herd immunity doesn't mean that background immunity won't build up to the point that covid circulates at low levels and is generally a mild illness. Why would this virus behave differently to every other virus the human race has ever encountered before?

I'm not a covid sceptic, I'm not anti lockdown or anti mask I just don't think that we'll need to social distance for eternity, herd immunity or no herd immunity.

Agreed.

And for comparison, R for covid the UK right now is about 1.3, and that’s mostly not because of restrictions but because of how much population immunity we have now thanks to the vaccine programme (and a bunch of previous infections). We won’t ever see the unchecked R for delta in this country, because we’ve checked it.

@GoldenOmber

Ok maybe I will use “let it spread uncontrolled through the community “ now if let it rip is annoying everyone!

It’s hardly ‘uncontrolled’ when we’ve vaccinated most of the adult population.

Flu has r number about 1.4. They say that unchecked delta could have r number 7.

Part of the reason for that with flu is a high degree of previous exposure to flu in the population.

The R0 for flu was 1.8 in the 2018 pandemic and over time has dropped to 1.4. bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480