If the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths is weakening...

[SCMocha]

... then does that mean that now, greater numbers vaccinated people are catching it?

As otherwise, you'd expect (somewhat) lower case numbers overall than before because of less transmission, but hospitalisations and deaths to follow the earlier patterns too, because the virus wouldn't really behave any differently in non-vaccinated people once they'd got it.

So the fact that the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths is weakening must mean that the difference between now and Jan is caused by a lot more vaccinated people testing positive, but not getting seriously ill?

I'm not sure I like that conclusion. I mean, I'm glad if serious illness and death is lower, but I don't like the fact that loads of vaccinated people are still catching it mildly, and increasing the chances of a vaccine resistant mutation happening. I hope I'm missing something, like there being a huge proportion of cases detected only because of asymptomatic testing that weren't showing up in January etc.

We have a vaccinated positive in our home with symptoms similar to a bad cold.
In some ways its a relief that its cope-able and if it wasn't covid then we would all still be at work and school. On the other hand like you say it could mutate and get worse. I think (hope) it'll weaken and once all of our bodies know it, and it'll just become one of those viruses.

Yes lots of vaccinated people catching and transmitting. Delta is much more transmissable than the other variants we had before...

Plus one dose isn't really enough for delta. Need 2 vaccine doses

But one dose or two, doesn't really matter, huge swathes of people must be catching it who are then not getting very ill or dying, for the graphs to look like they do. So even one dose must be enough to weaken that link.

Yes, I think lots of vaccinated people are catching it. Even after a second dose the protection against symptomatic covid isn't as good as previously.

I share your concerns about the possibility of developing an even more vaccine-resistant variant. I'm also a bit worried about long covid, as it seems some people develop it after only mild illness. I don't think it's clear yet how much the vaccine protects against that.

Yes that's quite worrying.

And just the idea that for the graphs to look so different requires loads of vaccinated people to be getting it, which just hadn't really occurred to me before - otherwise the graphs would look the same shape as before, just potentially smaller (or potentially even not smaller, given the numbers of unvaccinated people that it could have been spreading through). I almost think I'd have been happier with that in theory, as it would suggest that vaccinated people were more protected generally, although obviously I'm not keen on a third wave in unvaccinated people either! But if it were mainly unvaccinated people catching it, then the graphs wouldn't look so different in shape.

and yes to long covid being a concern too. I am really hoping that getting it more mildly does help, but it still fairly unknown.

I share your concerns about the possibility of developing an even more vaccine-resistant variant.

I think it’s only concerning if you thought that vaccines would actually be able to prevent a virus mutating. Many people from the start accepted that there would always be new variants.

It’s great that the vaccines are preventing serious illness in the most vulnerable groups but all the arguments for trying to vaccinate everyone, including low risk groups such as children and young people, are weakening. Scientists are acknowledging that herd immunity will not be possible given how transmissible delta is and now it’s obvious that vaccinated people can still contract and transmit the virus as well.

No obviously the vaccine is never going to prevent the virus mutating, but if we bring the cases right down, eventually, then there will be fewer chances for it to mutate.

There will be mutants, yes, but the longer we can put them off and the fewer possibilities we can give for them to arise, then the better - more time to develop and tweak the vaccines for that, and to organise the booster programs.

I think vaccinating young people will still be needed, very much in order to stop some of them getting seriously ill, but also in the hopes that the extent to which the vaccines DO block transmission (and I am sure that to an extent they do) will eventually mean that there are fewer chances for mutation. It also means that there will be less pressure on the NHS for all other conditions that have been sidelined at the moment.

A lot of people are still unvaccinated though, and the virus rates are highest among the young at the moment - obviously teenagers are not vaccinated (unless they are CEV/carers etc.) and they also tend to mix much more with others their own age. First dose protection also doesn't seem as good against Delta so that leaves lots of people in their 30s/20s still likely to catch it before their second vaccine, too.

Also, there are big regional differences. In my London borough the vaccination rates among adults are still so low that I'm more likely to come across someone who isn't fully (or at all) vaccinated when out and about locally, especially if you consider children and teenagers are not vaccinated.

Our GP practice put a notice on Facebook about changes occurring from the 19th. It also stated that 35% of people currently in hospital with covid have been double vaccinated. I am quite frightened by this as the press conference on Monday I thought they said it was a much lower rate.

Actually, the point about younger people catching it is a good one. That could partly explain the different shaped graphs ,because if it is mostly younger unvaccinated people catching it, that would then also produce fewer hospitalisations and deaths. So it might not be that it's loads of vaccinated people catching it ,but just younger unvaccinated people who are less likely to be seriously ill anyway. Thanks, I hadn't thought of that, and it could well explain things.

The fact that unvaccinated people are catching it and that there are loads and loads of them around, enough to really increase the numbers of cases, isn't the bit that surprised me. It's the fact that the hospitalisations and deaths hadn't also gone up, which I'd have expected in unvaccinated people - but actually, if they are younger unvaccinated people, they wouldn't necessarily go up.

That is more reassuring really. Yes doubly vaccinated people can catch it, and at a higher rate than perhaps expected, but it sounds like there are still some fairly significant drops in transmission/contraction in double vaccinated people.

@Mindymomo

Our GP practice put a notice on Facebook about changes occurring from the 19th. It also stated that 35% of people currently in hospital with covid have been double vaccinated. I am quite frightened by this as the press conference on Monday I thought they said it was a much lower rate.

Is that locally to you, or nationally? Also, any % needs context.

If that figure is local, your local hospital may have three patients, of which one are double vaccinated. Not cause for concern. Likewise if those 35% are all 80+ that also would not be an unusual outcome, immunity response being less effective in elderly patients with other co-morbidities.

Context matters.

I like this link. Lots of interesting data. Unfortunately the one thing they don't have is how many double vaccinated in hospital.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/Overview

The PHE have reported that more vaccinated people are dying of covid than unvaccinated.The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between Feb 1st and June 21st, had received at least one dose of the vaccine.

Excellent vaccines don't always reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some of the younger demographics. They are still expecting to see more doubly vaccinated 70 plus year olds die from Covid than unvaccinated 35 year olds.

Currently, infections are highest in the youngest and lower in the older age groups. This is why the deaths haven't gone up as its rare for a fit, healthy young person to die from Covid.

Additionally, you have to accept that numerical figures are one dimensional. Anecdotally, Covid patients are less sick upon hospital admission now than they were a year ago; and the broader data shows that the average Covid-related hospital stay is much shorter than it was a year ago. People being admitted to hospital as a precaution for overnight observation, or only needing an oxygen mask for couple of days before being fit enough to be discharged, rather than weeks of invasive treatment or ventilation, is really excellent news: but if the data being conveyed is only the raw figure of how many people were admitted to hospital today, that critical distinction is lost.

I know a few people who have gone down with it recently and they are all young people who have had their first dose but not the 2nd

www.nomoresurgeons.com/post/going-large
According to this doctor, the only fully-vaccinated patients in his ICU are those who are immunocompromised (the ones we need herd immunity to protect). Everyone else is either anti-vax or have delayed their second jab.

So if you have been offered your second jab, please get on and take it!

The biggest increase in case numbers is among the young, including children. The single biggest risk factor for dying from Covid is old age. So cases are increasing fastest among the predominantly unvaccinated age groups, and the most vulnerable due to their age are dying in vastly smaller numbers than was previously the case.

Some double vaccinated people will catch Covid. The primary purpose of the vaccine was always to make the effects less severe, and the reduction in transmission was essentially a bonus. And as none of the vaccines claimed 100% efficiency, there is a proportion for whom it simply won’t work, or they catch it before the full immunity from the second jab has kicked in.

@DdraigGoch

www.nomoresurgeons.com/post/going-large According to this doctor, the only fully-vaccinated patients in his ICU are those who are immunocompromised (the ones we need herd immunity to protect). Everyone else is either anti-vax or have delayed their second jab.

So if you have been offered your second jab, please get on and take it!

No worries, I've been double jabbed for a couple of months now! I'm keen to have a booster too, as soon as they're available. I was just getting a bit worried that the graphs were such different shapes now, but I am far more reassured by the idea that it's the young unvaccinated who don't get very ill that are determining the hospitalisation/death rates.

@SCMocha

No obviously the vaccine is never going to prevent the virus mutating, but if we bring the cases right down, eventually, then there will be fewer chances for it to mutate.

There will be mutants, yes, but the longer we can put them off and the fewer possibilities we can give for them to arise, then the better - more time to develop and tweak the vaccines for that, and to organise the booster programs.

I think vaccinating young people will still be needed, very much in order to stop some of them getting seriously ill, but also in the hopes that the extent to which the vaccines DO block transmission (and I am sure that to an extent they do) will eventually mean that there are fewer chances for mutation. It also means that there will be less pressure on the NHS for all other conditions that have been sidelined at the moment.

Sorry but it sounds like you are still clinging to an idea that is already being disproven. We will not be able to stop new variants arising and spreading. But we can reduce the risk of serious illness and death and develop new treatments.

Isn’t a large part of it the age of a chunk of those testing positive? If you think back to waves 1 and 2, we went into lockdown, schools were closed, young people weren’t mixing. It’s now basically a free for all with very few restrictions and it’s running rampant through the youngsters in the population.

For vaccinated persons coming into contact with actual Covid could also act as a booster … so if this virus is endemic and we can’t get rid of it anyway who knows if mild regular infection might be better anyway, like for the common cold.
The baffling thing is that 1.5 years on nobody still really knows and it is all a gamble.

@NakedAttraction

Isn’t a large part of it the age of a chunk of those testing positive? If you think back to waves 1 and 2, we went into lockdown, schools were closed, young people weren’t mixing. It’s now basically a free for all with very few restrictions and it’s running rampant through the youngsters in the population.

We’re also testing them All The Time so we know about a lot more asymptomatic cases.

@bumbleymummy

I share your concerns about the possibility of developing an even more vaccine-resistant variant.

I think it’s only concerning if you thought that vaccines would actually be able to prevent a virus mutating. Many people from the start accepted that there would always be new variants.

It’s great that the vaccines are preventing serious illness in the most vulnerable groups but all the arguments for trying to vaccinate everyone, including low risk groups such as children and young people, are weakening. Scientists are acknowledging that herd immunity will not be possible given how transmissible delta is and now it’s obvious that vaccinated people can still contract and transmit the virus as well.

Yes, I think you are right that herd immunity through vaccination is now looking impossible.

However, it wasn't that I thought vaccines would absolutely stop mutations: just that it would be more difficult for them to spread. It seems to me not a coincidence that the major variants that have caused problems for us have appeared when the virus is spreading quickly through the population in large numbers (UK, Brazil, India, etc.).

I wonder if a population was very highly vaccinated, then it would be difficult for mutations to find hosts - there would be a lot of dead ends, instead of being passed from person to person IYSWIM. So the vaccines wouldn't necessarily stop all variants, but could potentially slow it quite a bit. It's just the level of coverage has to be so high with Delta. Maybe closer to 100% (impossible) than the 70% we envisaged.

there are news out today that nearly half of all new cases are in the vaccinated.

I am not convinced now that vaccine are the only key, we also need to modify our way of life.

We had quite a high percentage of people vaccinated in the U.K. when delta first emerged and it’s still spreading despite our high levels of coverage.