If the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths is weakening...

[SCMocha]

... then does that mean that now, greater numbers vaccinated people are catching it?

As otherwise, you'd expect (somewhat) lower case numbers overall than before because of less transmission, but hospitalisations and deaths to follow the earlier patterns too, because the virus wouldn't really behave any differently in non-vaccinated people once they'd got it.

So the fact that the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths is weakening must mean that the difference between now and Jan is caused by a lot more vaccinated people testing positive, but not getting seriously ill?

I'm not sure I like that conclusion. I mean, I'm glad if serious illness and death is lower, but I don't like the fact that loads of vaccinated people are still catching it mildly, and increasing the chances of a vaccine resistant mutation happening. I hope I'm missing something, like there being a huge proportion of cases detected only because of asymptomatic testing that weren't showing up in January etc.

I am not convinced now that vaccine are the only key, we also need to modify our way of life.

No, I think we just need to accept that some people will still get ill despite being vaccinated, just like with flu, but most people will be ok and we just need to get on with it.

It’s annoying that despite vaccinated people still being able to contract and transmit the virus, they aren’t going to have to isolate.

theconversation.com/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671

Is it possible that the majority of cases are in unvaccinated young people who are less likely to die/become critically ill? Therefore the rate of cases turning to deaths will be lower due to the demographic catching covid?

I think it's both. Out of the many people I know who've had it recently/got it now, about half are young adults who've had one jab, the rest are middle aged people who've had two jabs.

Interestingly, I haven't heard of any older people getting it (could be because they aren't going out socialising as much, or because they got the Pfizer jab? Who knows)

Reported 15 July - 48,553 cases and 63 deaths

Last time cases were that high (14 January - 48,682) there were 1,248 deaths reported the same day

Last time deaths were that high (25 March - 63) there were just 6,397 cases reported the same day.

The vaccines are doing a remarkable job - albeit they can never be 100% effective

They are doing a remarkable job - but the thing I was wondering about what what exactly that job is. Just looking at the differences in the graphs between March and now has at least two explanations: lots of vaccinated people catching it, and not getting severely ill because of the vaccine, OR, lots of young unvaccinated people catching it, and not getting severely ill because they're young. Both great, but both imply slightly different mechansisms, different policy decisions, different types/levels of risks for individuals, so I was curious what the actual data said. It sounds like it's probably a bit of both.

Yes, I think it’s a bit of both. Looking at the figures, there aren’t actually a significantly higher number of young people in hospital - their rates have stayed the same. Proportionally though, it looks like there are more young people in hospital because there is a big decrease in the number of people in the older, most at-risk groups being hospitalised. I think it’s quite positive because older, vulnerable people are less likely to be seriously ill/die and younger people are unlikely to be seriously ill/in hospital for every long/die.

It scares me too. This virus will just keep evolving i thing

@Hellcatspangle

I think it's both. Out of the many people I know who've had it recently/got it now, about half are young adults who've had one jab, the rest are middle aged people who've had two jabs.

Interestingly, I haven't heard of any older people getting it (could be because they aren't going out socialising as much, or because they got the Pfizer jab? Who knows)

I suspect it is becuase middle aged people are more likely to have close contact with the young infected than the older population.

If anything the ones I know who have got it now are young ones who all have had their first dose of the vaccine but not their second

@BigWoollyJumpers. Thank you for the explanation, that makes me happier. We have 12 people in our local hospital with covid, in Surrey, but the figure could be the one hospital, Surrey or the South East.

A point re who is in hospital. During the first wave unless you literally thought you were dying you were discouraged to go to hospital! So lots of us who would usually have gone in with the symptoms we had (in particular breathlessness) didn’t dare go in.
I think if I were to have the same symptoms now with Covid I would happily go into hospital. So maybe the threshold of people going in is much less!
That will also skew the figures when you compare it to the first lockdown.

It would be helpful to have a vaccine breakdown for for the fully jabbed deaths.

Delta is fast becoming the dominant strain in America. 99.5% of their deaths are in the unvaccinated. They used mostly Pfizer and Moderna.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9791983/amp/Up-Brits-doubled-jabbed-AstraZeneca-Covid-symptoms-compared-Pfizer.html

Anecdotally I know several people who have had it recently, have been quite unwell and have said they have been vaccinated twice. None of them have gone to hospital though and seem to have recovered or are recovering well.

[quote Tealightsandd]It would be helpful to have a vaccine breakdown for for the fully jabbed deaths.

Delta is fast becoming the dominant strain in America. 99.5% of their deaths are in the unvaccinated. They used mostly Pfizer and Moderna.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9791983/amp/Up-Brits-doubled-jabbed-AstraZeneca-Covid-symptoms-compared-Pfizer.html[/quote]
We would expect to see more deaths in the vaccinated due to the correlation with age. The risk of a vaccinated 70 year old dying from covid is still higher than for an unvaccinated 35 year old. I read elsewhere that vaccination reduces you risk by around 20 years so a vaccinated 70 year old has the same risk profile as an unvaccinated 50 year old.
www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671

As otherwise, you'd expect (somewhat) lower case numbers overall than before because of less transmission, but hospitalisations and deaths to follow the earlier patterns too, because the virus wouldn't really behave any differently in non-vaccinated people once they'd got it.

Except that the non-vaccinated people are typically a lot younger and less vulnerable to COVID, so you would expect the virus to behave/manifest differently with them and to lead to fewer hospitalisations.

Perhaps an epidemiologist may break transparency protocols to quietly indicate that these are cases of double vaccination escape variants but will hopefully not lead to fatalities nor long Covid disabilities unless preexisting vulnerabilities?

@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia

Perhaps an epidemiologist may break transparency protocols to quietly indicate that these are cases of double vaccination escape variants but will hopefully not lead to fatalities nor long Covid disabilities unless preexisting vulnerabilities?

I don't think so, I think it is just the higher transmission rate. The one family we know who are recently infected, the child brought it back from a club, initially no symptoms, but then just had a sniffle, the mum double vaccinated, felt poorly for a day, but that was it, the dad single vaccinated, was bed-bound ill for a week, and has coughed for a further week. So he was ill, and still feels exhausted, but didn't require hospitalisation. Looking at lots of other anecdotal stories on MN, this does seem to be the current pattern.

I see the vaccines as ‘downgrading’ covid, in all senses, from transmissibility to risk of serious outcomes.

That doesn’t mean you won’t get it. But getting the vaccine will make a marked difference to your body’s ability to cope.

I’m in ROI and one of the things our health minister said the other day was that of the 200ish people who’d been admitted to ICU since March with Covid, only one of them was doubled jabbed, so that’s good indication of how effective vaccines are at preventing serious outcomes.

Where I work there are five staff off (out of about 50 staff) with Covid despite being double jabbed. One of whom is really ill with it.

One of the nurses on the ward hasn’t been vaccinated because she said it she didn’t think it would stop her getting it, and the fact we have 5 double-jabbed nurses off with Covid (when she hasn’t had it) has made her quite smug

@SCMocha

They are doing a remarkable job - but the thing I was wondering about what what exactly that job is. Just looking at the differences in the graphs between March and now has at least two explanations: lots of vaccinated people catching it, and not getting severely ill because of the vaccine, OR, lots of young unvaccinated people catching it, and not getting severely ill because they're young. Both great, but both imply slightly different mechansisms, different policy decisions, different types/levels of risks for individuals, so I was curious what the actual data said. It sounds like it's probably a bit of both.

OP I see case and death figures broken down by age because of my job. It is overwhelmingly cases rising in the young (so predominantly, but not exclusively because of the reasons I mentioned above) the unvaccinated) but deaths in the most vulnerable (oldest) groups not rising at the same rate.