What are your thoughts?

[Catcrazy008]

Predicting a rough winter for COVID.
Possible lockdowns.
Is it likely that schools will close again and we will return to home schooling?
I really can’t face it, but if it’s going to happen, I would rather try and psych myself up for it.

Not really re ‘head in the sand’

Thanks Golden will check it out tomorrow, I am interested in what’s behind their thinking, too late now

@Dghgcotcitc

Personally I am not sure how we save the nhs if we don’t educated the next generation. I know on mumsnet education is “just for lazy parents” but in the real world it actually gives us doctors, nurses, plumbers, electricians. We cannot go on for ever not educating the next generation except through getting them to watch a few joe wicks and other minor celebrities doing programmes on our national broadcaster!

But yes school closures are popular because the long term consequences are quite down the line so people deny they exist. So next year they will close by finally I do think the worm will turn on the idea particularly if employers start getting jittery about skill shortages etc. Maybe the academic year after?

Not just schools but universities as well. I lecture in an allied health profession course and we’ve had students drop out because of this.

The ones who are left are struggling with the practicalities of placements. Not enough mentors/supervision due to staff shortages because of staff isolating. Students repeatedly having to isolate due to their kids/husbaNd/mother getting covid.

So down on their hours (by hundreds of hours in some cases). They have to make these hours up to qualify, they can’t qualify without a minimum amount of hours.

So while I’ve only scanned it and possibly I’m missing something the Warwick scenario that has the tallest winter wave has it peaking at 611 hospital admissions a day. This would be pretty shit, not least for those 611 people. But our last winter wave peaked with over 4000 admissions in a day, so I’m not seeing how 611 leads to a ‘lockdown Christmas’. Perhaps it was in a footnote?

@CovidCorvid

My DD has just finished her AHP course and had no problem completing her placement hours, in fact in all 3 placements they'd have taken her on FT, there and then...they were that short staffed.
the huge issue she did have was being able to contact Uni staff for help and assistance.
Marking was appalling too, with group work severely curtailed because staff didn't turn up or help... no F2F lectures, even when allowed.

Working now, one positive of doing a healthcare degree, there is so many jobs out there, get some experience and work in the private sector or Aussie.

@GoldenOmber

So while I’ve only scanned it and possibly I’m missing something the Warwick scenario that has the tallest winter wave has it peaking at 611 hospital admissions a day. This would be pretty shit, not least for those 611 people. But our last winter wave peaked with over 4000 admissions in a day, so I’m not seeing how 611 leads to a ‘lockdown Christmas’. Perhaps it was in a footnote?

I'd rather avoid 611 hospitalisations a day, wouldn't you?

[quote jasjas1973]@CovidCorvid

My DD has just finished her AHP course and had no problem completing her placement hours, in fact in all 3 placements they'd have taken her on FT, there and then...they were that short staffed.
the huge issue she did have was being able to contact Uni staff for help and assistance.
Marking was appalling too, with group work severely curtailed because staff didn't turn up or help... no F2F lectures, even when allowed.

Working now, one positive of doing a healthcare degree, there is so many jobs out there, get some experience and work in the private sector or Aussie.[/quote]
It’s bizarre that some uni students report such issues with their unis.

We are more contactable now than before covid. Before covid the only way the students could contact me was by email or my office phone. Now each cohort has a Teams group chat and they message on there, plus they can ring me or any other lecturer on teams which connects to my personal mobile phone when they call me on teams! Every lecture has been done online live. Group work has been done online in breakout groups. All marking done within the 15 day turnaround. We do weekly online drop in support sessions, including some evening ones.

I will be delighted and astonished if this will not be déjà vu perpetual open and close semi lockdown cycles. What does one expect given our short sighted boom and bust short term carefree pandemic public health gross negligent mismanagement. Even good vaccination can’t cheat the forever super spreading mutating virus given the increased mixing with optional non enforcement risk mitigation measures.

LadyCatStark

We learn to live with it. Children can’t have3 yearsof disrupted education.

Yet thousands of kids with SEN in unsuitable or no placement face just that.

OK so so far they have had some disruption in the school year 2020 to 2021 and 1 and a half terms of 2019 to 2020
I don't think the Govt have any appetite for further lockdowns either. They can't afford it which of course is why they are going down the personal responsibility route with ECV.

Sorry meant to say just that and more.

It is should never have been presented as boom or bust, its a fluid, unknown situation and we will probably need to have some mitigation measures until we are well and truly in the top of it. I imagine at any moment the game changer will come about and change things very quickly but we do need to navigate a very hard winter before that.

I’d rather avoid 611 hospitalisations a day, wouldn't you?

Yeah, that would be great. Not sure how you’re planning to achieve that by bullshitting about University of Warwick modelling on Mumsnet but I’m sure you know what you’re doing,

Until the government start paying a better rate of statutory sick pay, people won't isolate if they get symptoms or come in to contact with a positive case. A lot of people can't manage on £96 a week, I know sick pay is kept low to discourage skiving but in a worldwide pandemic it would make sense to pay a sensible amount to encourage people to do the right thing. The same thing applies to schools, my ds started with symptoms last week, we ordered a test which took 3 days to arrive, sent it back the same day & it took a further 4 days to get a result which thankfully was negative but his school have rung every day to ask when he will be back in school. I can understand why parents are still sending ill children to school.

I can see schools closing again I will be amazed if the make it through the entire school year August till June and not close .

Many schools have already completed the in schooling academic year recently just before the past weekend of major sporting activities. This is in relation to families attending most independent fee paying schools in London. State primaries still generally have two more weeks and as usual a general blasé lack of lateral flow home testing in case it disrupt bubbles should a positive result be discovered as mostly asymptomatic (no fatalities or other illnesses). So usual carry on pick and mix Covid schooling herd immunity experiment with of course no risk mitigation in case it interferes with the school population herd immunity by default (or by design) as this cohort may not be afforded protection by vaccination.

I would hope they’d vaccinate the over 12s before they shut them out of school again.

Not sure.

What more are we going to do? We have the vaccines, the vast majority of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated twice. It's taken 7 months and we still haven't fully jabbed every single adult, yet despite having one of the best and fastest vaccine rollouts, we are only a few months off having to start again with boosters.

We've been living under restrictions now for 18 months and yet even now, with lots of restrictions still in place (and despite what some here will say we ARE under lots of restrictions), cases are getting very high again.

We know that if we delay the unlocking until the winter it will be worse because of other winter bugs, people being indoors more and so on.

What more are we to do and for how much longer? Are we to just say that some things we want to do and some businesses just aren't viable anymore?

Does learning to live with Covid mean accepting more deaths, or living under restrictions for years to come or possibly forever more?