What if the vaccines hasn’t broken the link

[DisposableNamechange]

Between infection and death.

What if it’s just slowed it down? (Ie more time elapses between becoming infected and dying.)

I’d been wondering this anyway but deaths have increased by a bigger percentage than infections, according to Sky.

‘COVID cases in the past week have risen by just over 27% compared with the previous week while deaths have risen by two thirds.’

The "yobs" (nanny's word not mine) would have been doing the mixing hugging singing, etc. for hours by the Time the game ended. Even if they had all gone meekly home (which they didnt) then it wouldn't really make much difference if they were spreading it around amongst themselves anyway.

Does data exist comparing the gradient of growth for infection, hospitalisation and death?

The growth in case numbers was dismissed a couple of months ago because exponential growth started from 'low' numbers (doesn't it always?) and now it seems that exponential growth in hospitalisation and death is being discounted because it started from 'low' numbers, it's not as bad as previous peaks etc. And crucially that the ratio of infections to hospitalisation and to death has changed. But isn't it higher than expected as per modelling? Hence why the change of rhetoric that the association is merely weakened?

The ONS graphs are presented side by side but have different x and y axes that make comparison impossible - percentage of population, rate per 100,000, absolute numbers etc. This is misleading. Either present comparable data or highlight that it is not comparable.

I'm presuming that the data does exist in a comparable format or could be presented that way. But given that risk assessment and management has been delegated to the individual I am assuming that we will all be privy to the data that the government and their advisors have based their policies on. All the data collected. Comparable data. Not cherry picked excerpts and political assertions.

@KOKOagainandagain

Does data exist comparing the gradient of growth for infection, hospitalisation and death?

The growth in case numbers was dismissed a couple of months ago because exponential growth started from 'low' numbers (doesn't it always?) and now it seems that exponential growth in hospitalisation and death is being discounted because it started from 'low' numbers, it's not as bad as previous peaks etc. And crucially that the ratio of infections to hospitalisation and to death has changed. But isn't it higher than expected as per modelling? Hence why the change of rhetoric that the association is merely weakened?

The ONS graphs are presented side by side but have different x and y axes that make comparison impossible - percentage of population, rate per 100,000, absolute numbers etc. This is misleading. Either present comparable data or highlight that it is not comparable.

I'm presuming that the data does exist in a comparable format or could be presented that way. But given that risk assessment and management has been delegated to the individual I am assuming that we will all be privy to the data that the government and their advisors have based their policies on. All the data collected. Comparable data. Not cherry picked excerpts and political assertions.

This is kind of what I was trying to say but less eloquently.

I’m not an anti vaxxer, I don’t love lock down, but so far I’ve been told that comparing apples and oranges = broken link. What I think I might be seeing comparing apples and oranges is a delayed, and smaller link. But they’re making it hard to know for sure.

ii know it's Monday but only 6 deaths today , last Monday it was 25 and the one before 12.
Less reporting or actually the link might be broken...

@EasterIssland

ii know it's Monday but only 6 deaths today , last Monday it was 25 and the one before 12. Less reporting or actually the link might be broken...

We had a zero death day not long ago...

ii know @PrincessNutNuts that's why I said I know it's Monday, the "good" thing is that it was "only" 6 and not 25 like last week or like 1500 like in January

@EasterIssland

ii know *@PrincessNutNuts* that's why I said I know it's Monday, the "good" thing is that it was "only" 6 and not 25 like last week or like 1500 like in January

I prefer the zero covid death days.

We've had more covid deaths in the first 12 days of July than we had in the whole of May.

"I prefer the zero covid death days. "

Me too

And 12, 25, 6 isn’t a pattern, it’s 3 numbers from which it’s impossible to determine a pattern.

@PrincessNutNuts We've had more covid deaths in the first 12 days of July than we had in the whole of May.

That suggests it was the re-opening of pubs etc (indoors) mid May which triggered the rise in infections.

Do we want to go back to pub closures to stop the rise in infections??

@NannyAndJohn

This is what we've been saying for months.

Hospitalisations are already rising exponentially, and the deaths are already baked in.

You'd make a good soap writer. Total fabrication.

Re hospitalisation

It is also true that you are now taken into hospital more readily and with less severe symptoms than in the first wave and first months of the pandemic.
Back then you had to be really very seriously ill to be admitted into hospital for Covid. Now the threshold is lower. This is the case in many hospitals across the country.

[quote Kazzyhoward]**@PrincessNutNuts* We've had more covid deaths in the first 12 days of July than we had in the whole of May.*

That suggests it was the re-opening of pubs etc (indoors) mid May which triggered the rise in infections.

Do we want to go back to pub closures to stop the rise in infections??[/quote]
Why does it suggest that?

@EasterIssland

ii know it's Monday but only 6 deaths today , last Monday it was 25 and the one before 12. Less reporting or actually the link might be broken...

50 today.

Still feeling smug?

Why would anyone ever be smug when talking about deaths of actual people. The days they are less we should be pleased, the days more take a moment to be sad

It’s an awful thing to say Nannyandjohn

Still feeling smug?

What a vile thing to say. There was no smugness in that post whatsoever. There's more than a hint of crowing over the deaths of 50 people in yours, however.

@NannyAndJohn have a good day

There is more than a hint by some posters of being pleased when things go wrong or get worse. I wonder what they did pre-pandemic? I bet they were big Millennium Bug fans!

@DottyHarmer

The ones that usually prefaced every prediction with "I'm afraid" or "sorry to say but youre all wrong "