What if the vaccines hasn’t broken the link

[DisposableNamechange]

Between infection and death.

What if it’s just slowed it down? (Ie more time elapses between becoming infected and dying.)

I’d been wondering this anyway but deaths have increased by a bigger percentage than infections, according to Sky.

‘COVID cases in the past week have risen by just over 27% compared with the previous week while deaths have risen by two thirds.’

It is pretty clear that this isn't the case op. It has been well documented that people who end up in hospital are generally needing less time there and are less ill. Also there are a lot of cases who have gone into hospital for something and have tested positive without symptoms. They aren't necessarily in hospital because of covid.

@Ikeeponkeepingon

It is pretty clear that this isn't the case op. It has been well documented that people who end up in hospital are generally needing less time there and are less ill. Also there are a lot of cases who have gone into hospital for something and have tested positive without symptoms. They aren't necessarily in hospital because of covid.

And anyone looking at the govt figures released daily about hospital admissions would know this how?

And how would we compare the current reasons for admissions versus previous waves?

These graphs illustrates how the link between cases and hospitalisation/deaths has been weakened. These are from @RP131 on twitter.

Missed the cases one... 😮

So a very similar number of cases to the last wave but a massive difference in the hospitalisations and deaths resulting.

If vaccines haven't "broken the link" then it's tough shit and unfortunately survival of the fittest. The vaccine was all we had against long term action, restrictions and lockdowns are not a viable option long term (and it would mean long term none of this another 3 weeks to flatten the curve bollocks), because restrictions and lockdowns bring a whole other host of problems that some like to ignore all for the sake of covid. The reality is covid isn't going away but neither Is "normal" functioning every day life. Living long term within restrictions may be fine for some socially,emotionally, mentally, physically and most importantly financially but for a vast amount of people its just not viable. There will be casualties from both sides as we go along, thats life I'm afraid, people need to accept that.

ONS estimated that as of 14th June 90% of the adult population has covid antibodies. If we can't open up a month after we have achieved that then I'm not sure that we ever will.

@HelloMissus

Well I’m waiting to get into Wembley. So if everyone in the whole country isn’t dead in two weeks, you’ve been taking shite!

I think half the population might die of alcohol poisoning

It would be interesting to see the breakdown of hospitalised cases - is this available anywhere?

This report is useful, for England:

4 weeks to 28 January 2021: 95,200 hospitalisations, of whom > 60% were age 65+. ~38,080 people under 65 yrs old

4 weeks to 20 June 2021: 3700 hospitalisations of whom > 70% were people under 65. ~2590 people under 65 yrs old.

I humbly submit that the number of people with covid in English hospitals recently, under 65 yrs old, is very low compared to what we saw in past. In spite of soaring cases.

They’ve weakened it, they haven’t severed it. The issue is one of volume of cases. If we let it rip to a level we never have before we will still potentially overwhelm hospitals. Which might be justifiable if this was truly a once off exit wave. But that’s unlikely given immunity wanes and every new variant brings potential for reinfection.

They are linked but not directly. So the growth of cases now (which has slowed down) doesnt relate to deaths as there is a time lag between it.

Cases leads to hospitialisations leads to deaths. The current increases links to when cases were raising at that point.

Cases growth has slowed though.

In terms of hospitalisations coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

shows how many are currently in. 2500 roughly have been admitted over the past week but the patients in has gone up by 800. So I think you can posit from those figures that it must be a fairly quick turnaround

What @Wellbythebloodyhell said.

Yes we are going to have unfortunately accept some covid deaths. We have to live with covid now the same way we live with some other diseases.

Lockdowns were to buy time until we had a vaccine.

Thanks @Bordois for always bringing the right data researched By those with a full brain

@DisposableNamechange

Between infection and death.

What if it’s just slowed it down? (Ie more time elapses between becoming infected and dying.)

I’d been wondering this anyway but deaths have increased by a bigger percentage than infections, according to Sky.

‘COVID cases in the past week have risen by just over 27% compared with the previous week while deaths have risen by two thirds.’

Wouldn't that mean there that the rate of exponential growth for cases is slowing? Whereas the rate of increase for deaths still reflects the rate of increase for cases about 3 weeks ago due to the lag.

@NannyAndJohn you said that we would have 100,000 cases by 21 June.

[quote BunsyGirl]@NannyAndJohn you said that we would have 100,000 cases by 21 June.[/quote]
And 19th of July and 1st of august. I guess at some point they’ll guess it and will come back and say I told you so line few days ago related with deaths.

But I think the data is pretty clear.
The last time we had this level of infections, deaths were in the high hundreds.

@Wellbythebloodyhell

If vaccines haven't "broken the link" then it's tough shit and unfortunately survival of the fittest. The vaccine was all we had against long term action, restrictions and lockdowns are not a viable option long term (and it would mean long term none of this another 3 weeks to flatten the curve bollocks), because restrictions and lockdowns bring a whole other host of problems that some like to ignore all for the sake of covid. The reality is covid isn't going away but neither Is "normal" functioning every day life. Living long term within restrictions may be fine for some socially,emotionally, mentally, physically and most importantly financially but for a vast amount of people its just not viable. There will be casualties from both sides as we go along, thats life I'm afraid, people need to accept that.

Yes, sad as it is, this is true. We can not live in lockdown indefinitely (I mean, people can if they choose, but we shouldn't have to by force).

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

This is a really good site for people who like graphs and information presented in an easy to read format. If you scroll down to "currently in hospital by day and by nation" and click "all" - you can see VERY clearly that the numbers of people in hospital or ICU are way, way down.

Peak in hospital at the end of January 2021 - 38,000 people. In the first April 2020 peak, about 19,000 people.

Now? Less than 3000 people.

It's so, so clear that the vaccines are keeping loads of people out of hospital and stopping loads of ill people are dying.

But then again I don't have a maths degree so am obviously an uneducated oik.

"This is what we've been saying for months.

Hospitalisations are already rising exponentially, and the deaths are already baked in."

"Baked in" ffs 🤦🏽‍♀️

@NannyAndJohn you appear on every thread claiming to have "been saying this for months". You and your maths degree and all

Another nugget from the most excellent Travelling Tabby site is that 84% of people in NZ haven't had even a single vaccine dose, compared with only 32% in England and 28% in Wales and Scotland.

recent in 2021, ONS data on recent hospitalisations. Also they are patients 'with' covid not necessarily hosptalised for covid.

People < 25 are about 2/3 of cases, people age 55+ are about 2/3 of the "positive at time of admission", people age ? 60+ seem to be 2/3 of deceased.

When they say more "younger people in hospital" they meant 55-65 = younger, not age 30+.

When they say more "younger people in hospital" they meant 55-65 = younger, not age 30+.

Not according to this a&e doctor:

"The patients are younger this time. I’ve been looking after patients aged between 27 and 82 in critical care, but most are in their 30s, 40s and 50s. And the vast majority are either unvaccinated or have had one dose of the jab.

A few patients we are caring for still deny Covid exists, even as we strap oxygen masks to their faces. That is perplexing. Staff find that particularly hard and I think it will be an interesting and difficult part of this next phase. I wonder if we’ll be caring for a select group of patients who think the very disorder we’re treating them for is a sham. How do staff, who are so exhausted, navigate that?"

www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/09/im-an-ae-doctor-covid-patients-are-younger-this-time

It's not broken the link - it's weakened it.

If we get very high case numbers, then it will over-stress the NHS again, because even a lower percentage needing hospital care is still a high number if the number of cases is very high.

And for some reason, even though the figures do get a little out of step from time to time, the reported number of hospital admission has been about 4 days older than the number of positive tests for about a week now. That's a bigger gap than there usually is.

And it seems so random who gets it badly - there's a correlation with age and comorbidities (especially those with immune issues, who are way over-represented in ICU admissions) but then there are also younger, fitter people who become severely ill.

Encouraging a summer peak is a gamble.

I don't understand the phrase break the link. People are going into hospital because they've got covid. There they might die because they've got covid. How can you ever break the link with covid?