What R rate are we & why is it not mentioned any more?

[That1GreenBottle]

R rate anyone? Can't seem to find it online.

1.2-1.4 I think.

We will get to 100,000 new cases a day before it peaks, probably.

If current hospitalisation rates hold up, though, the NHS should cope.

The messaging re Corona has changed, as they want people to not be afraid now that most are vaccinated.

They actually want a significant summer wave to avoid a winter one.

90% of adults have antibodies that’s why it’s not mentioned anymore. We don’t report the 650 cancer deaths today do we?

Delta variant without restrictions or vaccination is around r 8.

According to zoe app UK r rate is currently 1.1 but with significant regional variations, rising as high as 1.6 in the NE

@farfallarocks

90% of adults have antibodies that’s why it’s not mentioned anymore. We don’t report the 650 cancer deaths today do we?

Do you have some research to back that up? That’s a very high number.

www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate#latest-r-and-growth-rate-for-england

@Pissinthepottyplease reported this morning ONS
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/7july2021

It was published last Friday.
The highest r rate was South west 1.3 to 1 6.
G7, holidays and covid picking up in all south west cities.

Zoe said its moving west to east.
Hopefully north get better thats what happened last time.
Maybe they change course when London on its knees.

Because the have accepted it is very hard to get it under 1 with delta and now they have vaccines they are less worried about transmission. Rightly or wrongly

Because in order to keep ramming covid news down your throat every day all day for 18 months the media have had to change focus slightly every month or so (so there was focus on: R rates, Ventilators, massive temporary (not needed) hospitals, schools, then more recently: whose vaccinated, whose not. Lets not forget the swinging arrow at one of the press conferences? oh and Zones (or Tiers?). Most importantly the ever continuing debate of masks or no masks. So in summary - the R rate is out of fashion and soooooooo last season

@TheReluctantPhoenix

The messaging re Corona has changed, as they want people to not be afraid now that most are vaccinated.

They actually want a significant summer wave to avoid a winter one.

Have they explained how having a wave of hospitalisations and deaths now avoids having one later?

The nhs hasn’t coped for years. Operations were cancelled on mass January 2019 and 2018. In some places it’s totally unfit for purpose and only keeps going due to the goodwill of the staff which as you point out can’t keep going that much longer. I don’t have the solution but I’m not sure keeping Covid restrictions is the answer

@farfallarocks

The nhs hasn’t coped for years. Operations were cancelled on mass January 2019 and 2018. In some places it’s totally unfit for purpose and only keeps going due to the goodwill of the staff which as you point out can’t keep going that much longer. I don’t have the solution but I’m not sure keeping Covid restrictions is the answer

And the ecomomy limping along in survival mode is not going to help NHS funding long term.

This website is updated daily with all the statistics:
www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

Have they explained how having a wave of hospitalisations and deaths now avoids having one later?

I have seen it explained as (1) after a summer peak antibodies in the general population will be at their highest, so transmission/R-rate is reduced and (2) people who catch and die from Covid in the summer wave can, for sad but obvious reasons, not catch it a second time in the winter.

Lots of infections will give lots of opportunities for successful mutations, so I think the narrative may shift from R-rate towards the effectiveness of vaccines and antibodies from natural infection to hold up against them. Just my guess!

@TheSockMonster

Have they explained how having a wave of hospitalisations and deaths now avoids having one later?

I have seen it explained as (1) after a summer peak antibodies in the general population will be at their highest, so transmission/R-rate is reduced and (2) people who catch and die from Covid in the summer wave can, for sad but obvious reasons, not catch it a second time in the winter.

Lots of infections will give lots of opportunities for successful mutations, so I think the narrative may shift from R-rate towards the effectiveness of vaccines and antibodies from natural infection to hold up against them. Just my guess!

Kill off the vulnerable before winter?

That explains why there doesn't seem to be a plan to bring back shielding.

(2) people who catch and die from Covid in the summer wave can, for sad but obvious reasons, not catch it a second time in the winter.

Well, there's a public health strategy. Let's make sure all the vulnerable are dead before winter so their winter illnesses don't overwhelm the hospitals.

I'm fit and healthy but will be considered ECV from September as I'm pregnant and will be in my third trimester. As it stands it looks like I'll be teaching hundreds of children in a poorly ventilated school with nothing to protect me except perhaps my own mask, which we all know will probably protect my students more than me.

You're right though, if I die of COVID in the autumn term at least it will be one less pregnant lady giving birth in the winter season.

We're in south west and as stated above it's 1.3-1.6. Look at TravellingTabby, there's information there on R numbers and other interesting figures.

You can find it on the government dashboard. This is the postcode for Wogan House in London, just put in your postcode under Search another location towards the bottom of the page.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/search?postcode=W1W+7NY

@Neverendingstory356 a tad dramatic. Congratulations on your pregnancy and try not to panic. Your chances of dying from Covid are so slim compared to frankly most other things

I can’t see “kill off the vulnerable before winter” catching on as the new government catchphrase.

Here is the quote from Chris Whitty:

“At a certain point, you move to the situation where instead of actually averting hospitalisations and deaths, you move over to just delaying them. So you’re not actually changing the number of people who will go to hospital or die, you may change when they happen”

Who would have guessed in 2019 that in under 2 year’s time these would be the sort of decisions having to be made.

It doesn't matter what the R rate is.

Media has toned it down as they want people to go back to normal.

What I'm hearing is

"We've vaccinated half the country, now so of your child gets Long Covid, your parents die or your husband spends a fortnight in ICU, followed by a month in hospital and 6 months off work at home - you're on your own."

@TheSockMonster

I can’t see “kill off the vulnerable before winter” catching on as the new government catchphrase.

Here is the quote from Chris Whitty:

“At a certain point, you move to the situation where instead of actually averting hospitalisations and deaths, you move over to just delaying them. So you’re not actually changing the number of people who will go to hospital or die, you may change when they happen”

Who would have guessed in 2019 that in under 2 year’s time these would be the sort of decisions having to be made.

But why though?

We've reduced deaths and hospitalisations before.

Why are we just letting British people get ill, go to hospital, die, and get long covid now?

What's changed?