Infection fatality rates - can we live with this?

[PuzzledObserver]

Apparently there's going to be an update to MP's shortly about the latest data and how things look for unlocking.

I confess I have been concerned by how quickly cases have risen, already we are nearly a quarter of the daily cases we peaked at in January. However, very reassured by this report which says that the infection fatality rate now is only 1/20th of what it was in the winter wave (which itself I think was lower than the first wave, as we have got better at treating it.)

0.08% of cases now result in death - for every 10,000 people infected, 8 are likely to die. That's 8 too many, but hugely better than it was.

Yesterday there were 14,876 cases reported, which would mean 11-12 deaths eventually. IF maintained at that rate year round, that would be around 4,400 deaths per year - less than seasonal flu.

Is that the sort of level the public will tolerate in return for removing restrictions, do you think?

I appreciate it's not as simple as that - hospitalisation rates, long Covid and the risk of new variants arising are also relevant. But purely on the death rate, do you think we can live with it?

Long covid data is anyone who has symptoms lasting over 4 weeks

Diagnoses is by questionnaire and you don’t even have to have been diagnosed with covid in first place

No1 symptom is tiredness

So vast majority won’t have serious issues and the majority heels within 6 months

I don’t think the threat of long covid justifies keeping society shut down, but I do hope we learn more about it and how to treat it as medical knowledge advances.

At the moment it feels like the definitions of what ‘long covid’ is are all over the place. By some of those definitions I’ve had it myself, but I just had some lingering symptoms for a few weeks and I don’t think I should be classed alongside people who have serious post-viral nastiness for months.

[quote BarbarianMum]@Puzzledandpissedoff it's pretty hard to fake lung damage, or heart damage, or brain damage or kidney failure, or deafness but.[/quote]
Which is why we need to have a precise definition of long covid. Someone who has lost their smell for a month or is feeling a bit tired is very different to brain damage. And the fact that you don’t need to have a confirmed covid case. Who is to say that the symptom (if serious) was caused by covid if they never had a positive test. People do get ill from non-covid reasons.

@Watapalavaits not as clear cut as that. My neighbour's no. 1 symptom is tiredness/breathlessness. Turns out that this is caused by lung damage.

Other people will be tired due to post viral syndrome, or deconditioning, or because illness has accelerated menopause or maybe because theyve had me triggered (or already had it a d the COVID has triggered a relapse).

As for the "dont even have to have had a positive covid diagnosis" that is entirrly down to our own dear government who restricted testing at a time just about every other country was rushing to expand it.

There is definitely a need for more clarity in definition and understanding of the effects but the idea that this is all going to resolve itself into a few cases of PCs and a handful of malingerers is nonsense.

A d for those that think losing your sense of smell doesnt matter, it usually comes with a loss or change of taste. One of the worst affected people I met at the long COVID clinic was a young woman who was struggling to eat at all because everything tasted or smelt foul to her. She was in a terrible state.

Nearly 23,000, cases today that's a hell of a rise even with the weekend lag ,fingers crossed hospital admissions and deaths remain low .

It's pretty hard to fake lung damage, or heart damage, or brain damage or kidney failure, or deafness

It certainly is - but no so for general lassitude, a bit of a headache and all the other ways of feeling under the weather which some are insisting "must" be Long Covid

And still the majority of it is self diagnosed ...

X2 boys

Cases were few 1000 out yesterday so it inc added data

@x2boys

Nearly 23,000, cases today that's a hell of a rise even with the weekend lag ,fingers crossed hospital admissions and deaths remain low .

It's had a few (probably 3 or 4 thousand) added onto it from missing info yesterday.

But we'll almost certainly hit that number for real within days.

@Snookie00

So even though the link seems to have been broken between vaccination and serious illness/ death, some people want to continue with the restrictions.

You can imagine them hoping that the death toll will increase over the next few weeks so we can lockdown continually. If that doesn’t pan out they’ll fall back on the undefinable long covid and potential new variants as a way to inflict their misery on others.

Nobody does that.

The link hasn't been broken.

It can't be.

If there are no covid cases nobody catches covid, goes to hospital with covid, or dies of covid.

The more cases, the more hospitalisations the more deaths, the more variants, the more children isolating, the more time in restrictions, the more people on waiting lists for non-covid things, and the more detrimental covid chaos of every type.

But purely on the death rate, do you think we can live with it

I don't understand. How do people 'live with' dying?

Yes I know. You mean Other People dying.

So it seems, according to recent data, that in the UK around 50% of double vaccinated Covid patients are dying. Hugely concerning.

Or do you mean living with a debilitating illness that is known to cause organ damage, and leaves many unable to work and barely able to function?

www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/28/health-systems-should-be-prepared-doctors-brace-for-tsunami-of-long-covid

www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/03/its-terrifying-parents-struggle-to-get-help-for-children-with-long-covid

Hospital waiting lists will also be affected by the sheer numbers of Long Covid sufferers. Not least because one of the highest risk occupations for Long Covid is healthcare. So, extra pressures on the NHS AND even more staff shortages due to Long Covid or PTSD/burn out from the pandemic.

The consequences of failing to suppress and contain - 'letting it rip'.

We need to know why so many double vaccinated are dying. In the UK. It seems like it's different in America, where (from what I understand) very few double vaccinated have died.

Could it be that AZ isn't as effective as the mRNA vaccines? Or the longer wait between Pfizer doses, that the UK chose to do? If either of those, perhaps mRNA boosters might help?

Or, is it the Delta strain?

Someone who has lost their smell for a month or is feeling a bit tired is very different to brain damage.

The loss of smell and taste is down to changes in the brain. It is literally mild brain damage and links have been found between it and damage in other parts of the brain.

If you are willing to risk other people’s lives by ending restrictions but are at the same time not willing to vaccinate yourself, you are a hypocrite.

I hope all those calling for an end to restrictions have done their bit and been vaccinated.

What on earth do you mean by “around 50% of double vaccinated Covid patients are dying”Tealightsandd?

The only way that that could possibly make sense is if you mean “half of the patients who are dying are double vaccinated” but if that is what you mean then no, it’s not hugely concerning.
amp.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated?__twitter_impression=true

Half of double vaccinated Covid patients who are admitted to hospital are dying. Crucial difference - because double vaccinated people are vastly less likely to test positive for Covid than unvaccinated/single vaccinated, and if they do test positive they are vastly less likely to need hospital.

Those double vaccinated people who do need to go to hospital are mostly the ones whose immune systems didn’t make a great response to the vaccines. What chance would they have had if they had caught Covid before being vaccinated?

The report I read earlier today says 119 deaths from the Delta variant. Around 50 - so almost half - were in people who had been double vaccinated.

Yes OP. Nearly half of all Delta deaths have been in double vaccinated patients. In the UK, that is.

Ok, so that is what you meant. And no, it’s not worrying, it’s in line with the 90%+ efficacy figures that we were hoping for. It’s a sodding miracle.

It's definitely worrying that nearly 50% of the deaths are double vaccinated (in the UK).

Now we need to know whether it's purely due to more vaccine resistant variant, Delta, or is it because better efficacy is achieved by mRNA vaccines.

If it's vaccine type and/or schedule, we urgently need to look at getting mRNA boosters to people who've had AZ.

In America very very few of the deaths are in the vaccinated. They have less Delta so far, so it could be that. Or is it because the mRNA vaccines provide better protection.

It isn’t worrying at all. It’s entirely expected. Older people had many multiple chances of dying compared to younger people. Vaccines cut that risk but don’t eliminate it entirely.

Go back and read the David Spiegelhalter article I posted Tealights. The US situation is not comparable because they didn’t vaccinate in strict order of vulnerability and they didn’t get near universal take up in the most vulnerable groups. We did, so those double vaccinated people who are now making up fifty percent of the deaths were the population who were previously making up 99% of the deaths. It’s phenomenal.

50 is hardly elderly.

Funnily enough though, it's mostly over 50s who have been given AZ.

Is there a connection?

Could just be coincidence?

We need a breakdown of the deaths. Which vaccines they were given.