Infection fatality rates - can we live with this?

[PuzzledObserver]

Apparently there's going to be an update to MP's shortly about the latest data and how things look for unlocking.

I confess I have been concerned by how quickly cases have risen, already we are nearly a quarter of the daily cases we peaked at in January. However, very reassured by this report which says that the infection fatality rate now is only 1/20th of what it was in the winter wave (which itself I think was lower than the first wave, as we have got better at treating it.)

0.08% of cases now result in death - for every 10,000 people infected, 8 are likely to die. That's 8 too many, but hugely better than it was.

Yesterday there were 14,876 cases reported, which would mean 11-12 deaths eventually. IF maintained at that rate year round, that would be around 4,400 deaths per year - less than seasonal flu.

Is that the sort of level the public will tolerate in return for removing restrictions, do you think?

I appreciate it's not as simple as that - hospitalisation rates, long Covid and the risk of new variants arising are also relevant. But purely on the death rate, do you think we can live with it?

It's not up to the public though. Do I think the government can live with that? Yes absolutely.

I’m afraid I tend to agree, @AliceLivesHere . I have had flu a few times and i remember one bout leaving me low for a good six weeks. Another infection left me with permanent health issues.

But I confess surprise when I read some people’s definition of “long covid”. A poster only last week said a relative had tested positive the week before and now had long Covid .

Some people are malingerers, others hypochondriacs and some just plain daft. You only need to read the idiocy on the “side effects” threads. If only there could be a fool-proof test for long covid to sort the genuine from the time wasters.

@Thewiseoneincognito

It’s fine governments preparing their populations to accept a level of death but who are we offering up to die? It’s not like deaths from car crashes where everyone has an equal level of risk and we all have the same safety precautions in place. Life with Covid essentially impedes a large number of people and burdens them with fear either for their own health or their loved ones.

This is a truly bizarre way of thinking. Do you think that pre-covid no one ever worried about death from infection?

We do need much better data on Long Covid. A relative of mine, in her sixties but extremely fit and active, has suffered life changing heart damage, immediately visible on a scan, from a non-hospitalised case of Covid. I have no sense of how common this sort of permanent physical damage is by comparison with temporary medium-term post-viral fatigue, and severe long-term post viral syndrome (CFS/ME type). All we’ve got are scary numbers from questionable samples which could be any of the three types.

@VariantL1130

I think we need to learn to live with the virus. And I don't mean just letting rip and doing nothing. But I do mean ending all restrictions.

In their place, I'd like to see:

• Massive funding increases to the NHS. We spend considerably less than other similar nations on health care and our ICU beds are a lot lower per capita then many EU nations. We need an NHS that can cope with the surge in demand from yearly outbreaks of Covid and Flu, as well as an aging population with increasingly complex care needs.

• Increases in statutory sick pay to end the culture of presenteeism. Plus a one off payment to anyone who tests positive for Covid to enable them to stay at home.

• The legal right to work from home for office based workers, with businesses requiring to demonstrate why workers are not able to work from home when required.

• A dedicated funding stream for research and support into Long Covid. I'm skeptical of the 2 million number because there have been no clinical studies that take confirmed PCR positive patients and follow them through to the end. As far as I'm aware, so far, all our estimates for Long Covid are based on self reported studies and surveys, with many of the reported symptoms overlapping with depression and anxiety. I'm not denying it exists (I know two people that have it) but I think it needs a proper assessment, hence the funding, rather than just relying on media hysteria.

1500 people die every day, and sadly some of those will continue to be from Covid, probably forever more. At some point, we do need to accept that this is the case.

Very well put

It's too early to call. Despite the ra-ra the PHE data raise questions that only open debate can address.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/996740/VariantssofConcernnVOCTechnicallBriefing17.pdf

It is concerning that data is now presented under and over 50 and that headline data of vaccine efficacy seems to lump the over 50 together with the under 50 and does not address real life data.

So we are left wondering why the over 50 vaccinated who are hospitalised and go on to die do so in greater proportion than the unvaccinated of that demographic group when vaccine efficacy is said to be so high.

We are told to get vaccinated and make sure we have our second vaccine because 90+% are protected after 2 vaccines. So much so that we can ditch all preventative measures and the vaccinated can travel freely.

So why are the 2 vaccine over 50 the highest group that contacted severe illness and went on to die?

We used to be constantly told that those with severe illness and dying were over 80 and/or had co-morbidities. Why the change in data presentation? If all 50 deaths despite double vaccination are the same why not say so?

To suggest through unexplained data that, post 2 doses of vaccine, the risk to over 50s has increased to this degree is hugely worrying. This demographic are employed in the community and may well have DC at school, college or university.

@NannyAndJohn

And focusing solely on the IFR disregards important factors such as Long Covid and new Variants.

What happens if a new Variant comes along with a significantly higher IFR?

We need to focus on getting case numbers down.

That ship has sailed. There is no appetite for stricter restrictions and the economy couldn’t handle it. With the Delta variation the restrictions would need to be harsh and cases would bounce up again as soon as lifted. We will never get to zero covid so as long as the NHS is not in meltdown then we’ll need to live with it.

@IrmaFayLear

I’m afraid I tend to agree, *@AliceLivesHere* . I have had flu a few times and i remember one bout leaving me low for a good six weeks. Another infection left me with permanent health issues.

But I confess surprise when I read some people’s definition of “long covid”. A poster only last week said a relative had tested positive the week before and now had long Covid .

Some people are malingerers, others hypochondriacs and some just plain daft. You only need to read the idiocy on the “side effects” threads. If only there could be a fool-proof test for long covid to sort the genuine from the time wasters.

Hear hear. Post viral syndrome is definitely a thing and it can have a massive long term impact on a person - thousands already suffer following glandular fever, or flu (bearing in mind that no one paid the slightest bit of attention to 'long flu' or anything like it). Some of the supposed 'long covid' stories I've heard are laughable - one person had a bit of a cough for three weeks after her positive test and was declaiming that her life was ruined and she'd never be well again. Two months later and all claims of long covid have gone mysteriously silent as she is back to full health. Thankfully she isn't trying to milk it further. But I just think 'dear lord have you never been sick before?' I had cough for three months solid while pregnant with my DD. I nearly lost my mind but I never claimed to be mortally ill.

Isn't there, @Snookie00? Polls always come out in favour of imposing restrictions when we need them.

And we really need them now.

Even the most optimistic person must see that COVID now adds to the pressures on our healthcare system and that the most intense impact will be in the winter. This is when COVID infections and hospitalisations will come on top of the usual basket of winter pressures that almost cripple the NHS every year. Never mind the need to add in a new mass vaccination offer.

Even allowing for significant intersections across the at risk populations Something will need to give to manage that. Be it reduced access to elective and primary care, increased taxes or a need for continued social distancing and isolation. It still remains a set of bad options into the foreseeable.

@Snookie00 yes ultimately it's a financial argument. We dont actually (as a society) care if people are maimed as long as they are economically viable. But dont just put it down to a bit of normal post viral fatigue because it's really not.

@PuzzledObserver

Apparently there's going to be an update to MP's shortly about the latest data and how things look for unlocking.

I confess I have been concerned by how quickly cases have risen, already we are nearly a quarter of the daily cases we peaked at in January. However, very reassured by this report which says that the infection fatality rate now is only 1/20th of what it was in the winter wave (which itself I think was lower than the first wave, as we have got better at treating it.)

0.08% of cases now result in death - for every 10,000 people infected, 8 are likely to die. That's 8 too many, but hugely better than it was.

Yesterday there were 14,876 cases reported, which would mean 11-12 deaths eventually. IF maintained at that rate year round, that would be around 4,400 deaths per year - less than seasonal flu.

Is that the sort of level the public will tolerate in return for removing restrictions, do you think?

I appreciate it's not as simple as that - hospitalisation rates, long Covid and the risk of new variants arising are also relevant. But purely on the death rate, do you think we can live with it?

It isn't going to be maintained at this level , it's growing.

Despite vaccines, NPIs and restrictions.

For people who say a covid peak is naturally a bell curve as if that somehow means everything's ok: we're going to need a bigger axis.

The more cases, the faster the evolution of the virus and the more variants.

We've already been at the mercy of Alpha (Kent) for months and now Delta (India)

How many more years of this do you want?

How much more vaccine resistant and more transmissible would you like covid to be?

@TheKeatingFive

I read that Astrazeneca is only 60% effective against delta even with both jabs, and Pfizer somewhere around 80% (don't quote me, but def thereabouts!). Not sure what to make of that but it would explain why things might be creeping upwards however slowly. I don't know.

I presume those figures refer to infections. The more important metrics are hospitalisations/deaths. I think I read that both vaccines are 90%+ on those measures.

Ah yes, thanks for that, makes more sense to me now.

I have noticed that we have higher case rates but comparatively lower deaths at the moment. I hope this works out.

Deaths are low at the moment because the lag hasn't had time to set in yet.

I'll be holding my breath over the next couple of weeks.

@NannyAndJohn

Deaths are low at the moment because the lag hasn't had time to set in yet.

I'll be holding my breath over the next couple of weeks.

I'll be holding my breath over the next couple of weeks.

Somewhat insensitive phrasing mate

@NannyAndJohn

Deaths are low at the moment because the lag hasn't had time to set in yet.

I'll be holding my breath over the next couple of weeks.

Delta has been here for months. By the same point in Alpha's timeline (ie, when there were the same number of daily infections) hospitalisations and deaths were far, far higher.

Vaccines are working.

And I agree with the PP - your phrasing is deeply insensitive.

What do you suggest we do then?

@siestalady

What do you suggest we do then?

You’ll get two very different responses. One will be we need to open up let it rip and deal with the consequences because we need to ‘live’ with it.

The other will be we need to wait. July 21st is three weeks away and so far it’s evident we are not ready, far from it in fact . Life with Covid will be very miserable for a great deal of people when they realise it’s not quite the utopia of 2019 but rather high rates of infection and being isolated from other countries because we’re high risk.

Living with Covid as we are now is like believing we can live with tigers and lions roaming the streets. Great if you’ve got a gun or you’re in a secure vehicle, not so great if you’re walking the streets alone with neither.

Living with Covid as we are now is like believing we can live with tigers and lions roaming the streets. Great if you’ve got a gun or you’re in a secure vehicle, not so great if you’re walking the streets alone with neither

So even though the link seems to have been broken between vaccination and serious illness/ death, some people want to continue with the restrictions.

You can imagine them hoping that the death toll will increase over the next few weeks so we can lockdown continually. If that doesn’t pan out they’ll fall back on the undefinable long covid and potential new variants as a way to inflict their misery on others.

@Snookie00

So even though the link seems to have been broken between vaccination and serious illness/ death, some people want to continue with the restrictions.

You can imagine them hoping that the death toll will increase over the next few weeks so we can lockdown continually. If that doesn’t pan out they’ll fall back on the undefinable long covid and potential new variants as a way to inflict their misery on others.

Yes, we’re all doing group prayer sessions for a massive death toll to keep us locked up in our homes forever, it’s how pandemics work. 🤯

Seriously, the lack of critical thought from some people is astounding.

Your opening line uses the word ‘seems’ now since when was ‘seems’ a scientific definition? The link either has or hasn’t been broken and it would be a grave mistake to make should it seemingly be the wrong assumption that lead to a hasty reopening and lifting of restrictions that ends up causing even more damage.

Average flu deaths in uk can be 20-30,000 so 4400 a year is great news

The government tone last time was that restrictions are done - they just want to defend themselves by at least offering all those at risk the vaccine and then they can open up freely, confidant that they did what they could

They cannot juatify any lengthening of the restrictions with covid hospitalisations under 1/30 of jan and Feb

I'm skeptical about the numbers bandied around for long covid, or post viral fatigue
Some will be genuine but also a malingerer's joy to be given an opt out card. It needs a proper assessment and diagnosis. Some love nothing more than to whinge and this gives them a club to join

Absolutely

Nobody doubts that post viral problems exist and that the symptoms can be awful for sufferers; however with cases largely being self-diagnosed we really can't know yet what the position is with Covid

It won't stop it being blamed for everything from a cough to crop failure though ...

Living with Covid as we are now is like believing we can live with tigers and lions roaming the streets. Great if you’ve got a gun or you’re in a secure vehicle, not so great if you’re walking the streets alone with neither.

Lol. What?

@Puzzledandpissedoff it's pretty hard to fake lung damage, or heart damage, or brain damage or kidney failure, or deafness but.