When will this end?

[Onthegrapevine]

When the pandemic began I thought a vaccine would be developed and that would be the end of it. Back in March 2020 nobody in my life believe’d we’d have one by now and we do, but I feel we are stuck and will never get out what with these variants. Months ago there was talk of a vaccine that could tackle all variants but I haven’t heard anything since.

People talk about how gruesome a covid death is, and every single one of us will one day be “vulnerable” to it l, be it from a new diagnosis or simply old age. Is this the way life is going to be?

I am scared that as time goes on it will mutate to something even more dangerous, especially to kids (I have a toddler, my first born in March 2020) though experts state this is unlikely as a virus needs to keep its hosts alive to be able to spread etc, but death does not appear to be the only concern with Covid.

I felt relief when my elderly father received his 2nd AZ dose last month but now I am scared for him yet again with talk of reduced efficacy, at 77 he really cannot afford that. I have some family who are not getting vaccinated, they live 5 minutes away from him and see him daily.

I thought this summer would be different. I feel so sad and worried about the future. For myself, my child, my dad, the world.

Most of my family live abroad so they haven’t even met my child, and it doesn’t look like they will until he’s almost two.

Just having a moan I suppose. Really feeling it today.

@Hallyup6

I'm feeling the same today. Just had to go and collect my 11 year old from school due to a positive case in her bubble. Her high school transition day is this week, so that's now out of the question for them. I'm sick of it. I think we need to learn to live with it and accept that some people will die from it, just like we do with flu. The whole point of lockdown was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, which it wasn't. Yes it was busy but the Nightingales sat practically empty.

We need to get on with living now.

I totally agree with that, but would just add that a large part of the reason for the empty Nightingale hospitals was because they couldn't be staffed. There were simply not enough specialist staff in the country to run them

We do have to start living with it though. The current scenario is just unsustainable.

Just read that Spain is asking for vaccine or negative test or won’t let people in.

That sounds fair enough. As long as you can travel with children, who won't have been vaccinated. If you can travel with jabs that may convince a few waverers.

Europe might suddenly decide to ban us all, and that's fair enough, but honestly, with how transmissible the Delta variant is I would be very surprised if it wasn't already in some European countries...and with their open borders with each other...

@NannyAndJohn

Direct transmission between Sudan and the UK isn't all that matters.

A Covid positive Sudan resident could travel to neighbouring Egypt and infect a British tourist who would then bring it back home.

This is how diseases spread.

I would imagine it will be a long time before there are no restrictions/quarantine on travel between the UK and Egypt. If there's a problem controlling the border between Egypt and Sudan, then it's unlikely that Egypt would be on the "green" list any time soon. That's why I mentioned countries AND continents in my earlier post.

@BarefootHippieChick

Europe might suddenly decide to ban us all, and that's fair enough, but honestly, with how transmissible the Delta variant is I would be very surprised if it wasn't already in some European countries...and with their open borders with each other...

It already is throughout Europe, and Australia, etc. Basically each new variant will spread faster than it can be identified and controls can be put in place, especially when some other countries aren't as good as identifying new variants as we are in the UK.

It's now being said that the original Wuhan variant started as long ago as Nov/Dec 2019 which was several weeks before China identified it. It also makes a mockery of the UK's "first" positive case in York in February 2020 - it must have been widespread throughout Europe by then, especially given the number of cases in hotels/cruise ships around the World and all those cases linked to the Italian ski resort.

By the time we identify new strains, it's already too late to contain. We have to accept that and find better ways to contain/control it.

It's obviously very early, but somewhat positive hints with the latest NSW (Sydney) lockdown.

The highly contagious Delta strain of COVID-19 infected everyone who attended a Sydney birthday party except for the six people who were vaccinated - with 24 of the 30 attendees, and many of their household contacts, all testing positive for COVID-19.

The virus would have had a near 100 per cent transmission rate were it not for six people who attended the party who had already received a jab.

My only hope, not even for a way out but a plan, is in Australians committing to vaccination and our current government loses the upcoming election.

For Australia at least, I cannot see our border opening until at least 2023.

@Alondra

That’s not how virus mutations work. Please do some real research before spouting this know it all cocky bullshit.

That's exactly how a virus or bacteria mutates. The first rule to an infection whether is viral or bacteriological is to isolate it. If it can't be isolated it will find a way to bypass medications and vaccines and mutate.

Do your own research.

Viruses don't going therefore they can't "find a way" to bypass anything. Random mutations happen which may or may not be significant.

Not sure how think turned into going

It seems it will only end when we can all prove we’re immortal!

The link between hospitalisations and deaths has been cut. Technically the virus could circulate annually around non vulnerable demographics without all the testing and isolating, along with its other coronavirus cousins, and eventually nobody would really be any the wiser. However, as we have governments that love to count cases and make restriction decisions based on those case numbers then in this ridiculous loop we remain.

Also it doesn’t matter that people continue to die of many other illnesses or suicide, as long as nobody dies of covid .

@Thewiseoneincognito

Hong Kong have now designated us an ‘Extremely High Risk’ country banning arrivals from the UK from Thursday. They’re clearly not expecting this to change trajectory any time soon.

Yet here we are pondering if we can simply lift all restrictions on July 21st and life will ‘feel a bit more normal’. I’d laugh if it wasn’t so frighteningly real.

I think for this you and @NannyandJohn are missing the point.

Everything is pointing to vaccines working and this isnt about our trajectory at all. But how brutal Delta variant is, how quickly its spreads and how lockdown doesnt work as effectively as they did due to the increase in transmissibility.

With 20% fully vaccinated and a highly dense population they need to hold off as much as possible

Our data is pointing to (and I think 5:30 will be clearer with Sajid Javid speaking to the House of Commons.

And @NannyandJohn that is not the point the EU is trying to make

@Lostinacloud However, as we have governments that love to count cases and make restriction decisions based on those case numbers then in this ridiculous loop we remain.

It's not just "our" government though is it? There are governments across the World doing pretty much the same as the UK govts, give or take, i.e. lockdowns, restrictions, closed borders, quarantines, etc. It's not as if we're unique and doing things that no other countries are doing.

Worth posting this here too. I looked at the same point infection-wise as December when Alpha was really taking off. The evidence that the vaccines are working is becoming more and more pronounced. Yes infections are currently on the rise as there is still a shrinking but somewhat significant pool of people without antibodies but....
*and lets remember that delta is apparently 40-60% more transmissible than alpha and that we've been told its more likely to lead to hospitalisation. Plus there is far more mixing going in now than there was in December, with outdoor gatherings of up to 30, pubs without the substantial meal and personal responsibility as far as close contact with family and friends.

Numbers admitted to hospital are starting to well and truly flatten from 40%+ increase a few weeks ago to 10%.

Plus the effects of the vaccine are starting to become very obvious. At the same point in the increase due to alpha, the 9th December there were :

16500 cases (7 day average right now is about the same)

1753 admitted to hospital (227 admitted 24th June)
16331 in hospital (1505 on 24th june)
1242 on ventilation (257 on 25th june)
441 deaths (553 reported on 9th December), (18/21 on 24th june)

I always roll my eyes when mumsnet praises Australia's response. I would hate to be imprisoned in the country (at least it's possible to travel from the UK, not easy but possible) and a few times they locked down an area over 1 case! That's just insane behavior

www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-vaccines-have-prevented-7-2-million-infections-and-27-000-deaths?fbclid=IwAR3yL7OIz2M8UBBLfs82rS_l45OwTIMvgurGU9Qvd2wywIlSQAwNig9FSA0

This is possibly why Hong Kong etc have banned us

@Badbadbunny no it’s not just our government, that’s why I made the word plural and said governments!
Some governments and/state leaders have at least started to break through, hence the envious scenes of a completely unrestricted Texas and Florida.

Personally I think at this stage it can only end if the population of the entire uk stopped testing. What would they do then if they had no scary case number figures to put on a graph for the bbc or sky news to show to the masses? The hospitalisations and death figures provide an almost flat line so that’s no good for the fear or “data led” argument. If only!

I am getting muddled as to what I have said on about 3 different threads, but
the government is now saying that the UK needs to accept up to 20,000 deaths from covid, per year.

Yeah, just saw they have said that.

They are planning to treat it like the flu, which is what some people have been saying they should do.

Yes.
Some people, myself included, have been saying this since last June.

My personal point has always been, that the virus infected 1 or 4 people initially. And within 3 months, it was pretty much world wide.
Yes, vaccines may go along way to helping, but they are not 100% as most vaccines are not.
Plus, even with the best will in the world, the whole world can never be policed, so the virus is here to stay. Indefinitely.

So much has been lost trying to stop a tide which, in my opinion, is not likely to be stopped for decades.

There does seem to be some recognition now of all of this. I hope so.

This government always seems to like to put numbers on things.

I dont think it was very wise to put on a number.

If, as could happen, the number goes above 20,000, then people will shout.

It wasn’t possible to treat it like flu because those who did catch it pre-vaccine overwhelmed the hospitals. Hospitals that are well experienced in winter pressures and flu surges - it was worse than that. Multiple wards were full with people with the exact same diagnosis. That doesn’t happen with flu (or anything else).

If vaccines have reduced its severity both in terms of individual illness and impact on hospital resource then we are capable of treating it like the flu.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550

If people get vaxed and it will be like his story, like 60+ cancer survivor can have it mild when catches it and stay out of hospital, then yeah, future looks bright, there's definitely light at the end of the tunnel.