When will this end?

[Onthegrapevine]

When the pandemic began I thought a vaccine would be developed and that would be the end of it. Back in March 2020 nobody in my life believe’d we’d have one by now and we do, but I feel we are stuck and will never get out what with these variants. Months ago there was talk of a vaccine that could tackle all variants but I haven’t heard anything since.

People talk about how gruesome a covid death is, and every single one of us will one day be “vulnerable” to it l, be it from a new diagnosis or simply old age. Is this the way life is going to be?

I am scared that as time goes on it will mutate to something even more dangerous, especially to kids (I have a toddler, my first born in March 2020) though experts state this is unlikely as a virus needs to keep its hosts alive to be able to spread etc, but death does not appear to be the only concern with Covid.

I felt relief when my elderly father received his 2nd AZ dose last month but now I am scared for him yet again with talk of reduced efficacy, at 77 he really cannot afford that. I have some family who are not getting vaccinated, they live 5 minutes away from him and see him daily.

I thought this summer would be different. I feel so sad and worried about the future. For myself, my child, my dad, the world.

Most of my family live abroad so they haven’t even met my child, and it doesn’t look like they will until he’s almost two.

Just having a moan I suppose. Really feeling it today.

@Alondra We have a Delta variant that is 100% more transmisible and that results in deaths if the recipient is not vaccinated fully.

Neither of those are true. Yes, it appears to be more transmissible but not 100% more. No, it doesn't "result in deaths if not vaccinated" - lots of people have and will continue to survive it despite not being vaccinated - you make it sound like an automatic death sentence, which it isn't.

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@Nonmaquillee thankfully that type of twisted logic is not endemic, worrying about others is a basic foundation for a harmonious society. If we didn’t do that we’d still be in the dark ages.[/quote]
I think that you’re deliberately misunderstanding me.

@lljkk

Polio isn’t an issue, we haven’t just learn to live with that.

Polio is a sanitation disease. Good human waste disposal = no Polio. Also it has the maximum damage potential to the young. Polio is worse than covid in human impacts while being easier to eliminate. Polio was worth more effort to try to eradicate.

We "live with" most diseases. HI-b, diptheria, whooping cough, tetanus -- which all have potential to be far worse than covid.

No, we don't. We vaccinate against all the diseases you list, and also vaccinated against Polio once a vaccine was developed in the 1950s.

So perhaps it has already ended OP. Perhaps this is our normal for now

There's just no hope is there. I'll never see my parents again.

Surely mutation is not a deliberate design choice - either in an attempt to survive or to be less harmful.

Surely it's more of a roll of the dice thing? Lots of random rolls result in a form of the virus less likely to survive (for any number of reasons) so those mutations quickly die out.

Some result in more or less equal, or better survival rates and they are the ones that tend to get a chance to reproduce.

The survival (or not) is a side effect of the mutation, the mutation is not an attempt to survive, iyswim.

All of that means any virus could evolve to be more transmissable or more deadly or die out altogether. It's just that when there are so many potential new infections, this particular virus is getting millions more chances to mutate than lots of other viruses do.

Reduce the chances to mutate, reduce the rate of mutation, increase virus stability and so increase the chances that science can develop faster than the virus can because developments are against a known enemy, not one that mutates frequently.

That's why no one is safe until we are all safe and global control is important.

@Douchebaggette That's why no one is safe until we are all safe and global control is important.

Yes, whilst I agree, there still has to be found an equilibrium position that controls (NB not eliminates) Covid, whilst still allowing a functioning society.

We simply can't keep closing down schools or sending home dozens of children when one or two of them test positive. We have to find a better way of managing and controlling it.

I'm no covid denier. I'm vulnerable and my OH is ECV due to blood cancer (vaccines probably won't work for him). Whilst we'd like to be "protected" forever by ongoing restrictions etc., we both realise that's simply not practical and, at a societal level, will do more harm than good. We're both happy for everything and everyone else to go back to normal and we'll take our own precautions, do our own risk assessments and take our own chances. We know that we can't continue to expect tens of millions of other people (who are at very low risk from covid) to continue to sacrifice their education, their job prospects, their businesses, etc for the likes of us. It makes far more sense for us to make our own decisions to keep us as safe as possible. We've already decided that our 2019 foreign holidays were our last - that's sad because we liked them, but we really can't see a time when we'll feel safe in crowded airports, sat for hours on full planes etc. I've already moved my business to an "online only" model - that will cost us money in terms of lost trade, but again, it's something we're content with to reduce our personal risks.

I think ALL restrictions need to go on 19 July and that we move to "personal" risk assessments for ourselves and our employers.

@Badbadbunny that’s very noble of you and your husband to be prepared to make your own risk assessments, I can not imagine the worry especially with blood cancer which is hideous enough under normal circumstances, long may his fight continue.

fully agree with you that the difference between Covid and polio, or whooping cough or rubella...or so many other nasty viruses we've lived with and vaccinated agaisnt is vaccines, sanitation and health care. Where I'm not agreeing with you that variants are less likely to be more deadly.

Sorry I did mean to write that if it follows the trend of many other viruses. Obviously we can't be sure this will follow any trend, just offering an alternative to OP's worries. As said though everyone I know catching covid now - delta variant is barely unwell so it's not a case of non vaccinated = death. Yes it was very deadly in India but that again comes down to the level of healthcare and people's health and living conditions.

We "live with" most diseases. HI-b, diptheria, whooping cough, tetanus -- which all have potential to be far worse than covid.*
No, we don't. We vaccinate against all the diseases you list, and also vaccinated against Polio once a vaccine was developed in the 1950s.*

Try telling that to DD, who still lives with after affects of whooping cough 8 years on that she caught as a baby from a vaccinated child. Small whooping cough outbreaks happen regularly. When did anyone last have a tetanus booster. I couldn't tell you when mine was - probably pre school!

[quote Onthegrapevine]@Anothermuddywalk I don’t know how I feel about it if I’m honest. My heart is genuinely sore for all the CEV children who can’t have a vaccine. If I feel like this with a healthy child, I can only imagine how parents of CEV children must feel.

I feel like a lot of people forget about that side of things.[/quote]
And CEV young adults. My son has had both doses, but his hospital is still advising that he doesn't leave the house or have visitors.

@Reachersloveinterest where do they live?

@cocoloco987

When did anyone last have a tetanus booster. I couldn't tell you when mine was - probably pre school!

Slight digression but if you had the whooping cough vaccine when you were pregnant with your dd it would have also contained tetanus. It’s just how that vaccine comes, it also covers polio and diphtheria.

[quote TuesdayRuby]@Reachersloveinterest where do they live?[/quote]
France. Seems so close but Brexit and Covid have really screwed it up.

I too am thoroughly fed up with this half life where most of the things we look forward to are not allowed, but we still get to do all the mundane stuff, there is just this constant background anxiety and uncertainty. I guess it's better than illness or death, but sometimes it feels like not much better.

We’re getting closer op

Data assessed today iirc July 19th coming up

It won’t be gone but things may feel a bit more normal, just waiting here you see trying not to stress about it - esp since dc back at school tg, which is much better

Slight digression but if you had the whooping cough vaccine when you were pregnant with your dd it would have also contained tetanus. It’s just how that vaccine comes, it also covers polio and diphtheria.

I didn't - it was not a thing in the country I was in at that point.

‘When most of the world, at least most of the most demographic dense areas of the world are fully vaccinated.’

I think this is exactly what makes the situation feel so bleak. This just isn’t a realistic goal. If it were, we’d have eliminated a lot of diseases which are rife in the developing world. The infrastructure isn’t there, the money isn’t there, and there are high rates of vaccine hesitancy (mostly due to reporting around AZ.) Go on covidvaxlive- their estimate is that 70% will be fully vaccinated in South Sudan by 2062.

‘Vaccinate the world’ is not a feasible objective. Those advocating for it either have no idea what life is like in countries like South Sudan, or want restrictions to continue indefinitely (or both.)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57630553

@Reachersloveinterest
France. Seems so close but Brexit and Covid have really screwed it up.

I don’t think you will have to wait too long to get the green light to travel between France and the UK. Both rich European countries, there’s no way they’ll let the travel ban continue for too long.

In any case, you only have to quarantine for 5 days coming back from an Amber county now (subject to tests) so if you really wanted to, you could book 2weeks off work and see your parents.

Appreciate its not “normal” and far from ideal but things are moving in the right direction. I personally believe by the end of summer we’ll be 80% back to what we are used to.

Hong Kong have now designated us an ‘Extremely High Risk’ country banning arrivals from the UK from Thursday. They’re clearly not expecting this to change trajectory any time soon.

Yet here we are pondering if we can simply lift all restrictions on July 21st and life will ‘feel a bit more normal’. I’d laugh if it wasn’t so frighteningly real.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Hong Kong have now designated us an ‘Extremely High Risk’ country banning arrivals from the UK from Thursday. They’re clearly not expecting this to change trajectory any time soon.

Yet here we are pondering if we can simply lift all restrictions on July 21st and life will ‘feel a bit more normal’. I’d laugh if it wasn’t so frighteningly real.

And all Britons are set to be banned from the EU because we're so deep in the shit.

Unfortunately my thread informing people of this got deleted because the "anti-dementors" went on a rampage.

COVID Symptom Study: Estimated Active Cases Per 100,000 by age in June

I've just seen this on other forum, I don't know the source.
But it looks promising. The cases are mostly young people in 20-29, and they are plateauing, they will either get vaxxed or get natural immunity and case will start to decrease. And other age groups aren't increasing rapidly except for under 20, but the school will close for summer soon. So, it looks like we are getting there.

@Puppysharness

‘When most of the world, at least most of the most demographic dense areas of the world are fully vaccinated.’

I think this is exactly what makes the situation feel so bleak. This just isn’t a realistic goal. If it were, we’d have eliminated a lot of diseases which are rife in the developing world. The infrastructure isn’t there, the money isn’t there, and there are high rates of vaccine hesitancy (mostly due to reporting around AZ.) Go on covidvaxlive- their estimate is that 70% will be fully vaccinated in South Sudan by 2062.

‘Vaccinate the world’ is not a feasible objective. Those advocating for it either have no idea what life is like in countries like South Sudan, or want restrictions to continue indefinitely (or both.)

What proportion of travellers in/out of the UK are to/from Sudan?

If particular countries/continents are a problem due to low numbers of vaccinated, then there needs to be better control of people to/from those countries. There needs to be no enhanced controls at all between countries that both have high vaccination rates, such as, hopefully, between the UK and mainland Europe later in the year when most European countries have caught up with the UK.

Stronger border controls and better tracking/tracing of travellers between high/low risk countries is the answer.

Watching Wimbledon on the TV at the moment. Centre Court has thousands of spectators on it, shouting and cheering, roof appears to be closed - so in South West London it has quite a 2019 feel about it!

@roguetomato

COVID Symptom Study: Estimated Active Cases Per 100,000 by age in June

I've just seen this on other forum, I don't know the source.
But it looks promising. The cases are mostly young people in 20-29, and they are plateauing, they will either get vaxxed or get natural immunity and case will start to decrease. And other age groups aren't increasing rapidly except for under 20, but the school will close for summer soon. So, it looks like we are getting there.

Wow. There's evidence of the vaccines working if ever I saw it. And now over 18s are getting their first dose let's hope it comes down further. My only worry is it continuing to affect education if they aren't going to vaccinate children.

Direct transmission between Sudan and the UK isn't all that matters.

A Covid positive Sudan resident could travel to neighbouring Egypt and infect a British tourist who would then bring it back home.

This is how diseases spread.