Vaccination alone is not the way out of this

[nonono1]

I’m watching a politician on Question Time tonight who has just said that vaccination is not the sole way out of this nightmare pandemic situation. I think she then went on to say something about the importance of the test and trace system being up to scratch in addition to the vaccines. But I wasn’t really listening at that point to be honest, as I was so surprised by what she’d said about the vaccines.

What I don’t understand is, how are vaccines not the sole way out of this? Surely when the vast majority of the population have been double jabbed, it will be over?!

[quote PrincessNutNuts]Senegal:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/22397842/senegal-covid-19-pandemic-playbook[/quote]
Senegal initially put anyone with covid - no matter how mild - and their contacts into hotels to limit spread. China, if you remember, did similar. In neither case was it voluntary. Now, at-home quarantine is monitored and enforced.

They had a 9pm-5am curfew, and broke up protests with tear gas.

Plus they have the great 'advantage' that two thirds of their population are under 35, and so really not vulnerable to covid.

To copy Senegal we'd have to euthanize the majority of our elderly to make the demographics match. We'd have to enforce isolation for anyone who has symptoms and all their contacts. And we'd have to use tear gas to break up any protests.

We can't even get people to download an app.

You only have to read some of the threads here to know why covid is spreading. "I'm not keeping my kid off school again - he only had a temperature overnight." "I'm not isolating because the app pinged me." "The school said they have to self-isolate, but its ridiculous and we're not staying home." "I gave the pub fake contact tracing details." "I'm not wearing a mask." "I pretend to scan into venues."

We could 'be more China' or 'be more Senegal', which would undoubtedly limit spread. But the civil liberties infringements would be significant.

Just in response to people expecting herd immunity... how on earth do you think that it can be achieved when the virus can still be caught by, spread by and kill fully vaccinated people?

That's all a bit over dramatic @Motorina

Just put a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system in place and engage with local communities.

No euthanasia required.

@PrincessNutNuts

That's all a bit over dramatic *@Motorina*

Just put a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system in place and engage with local communities.

No euthanasia required.

It was in the news today that a couple of thousand travellers gave incorrect details to track and trace on arrival in the UK. No T&T system will ever work if people aren't honest.

@DownSideUpped

Just in response to people expecting herd immunity... how on earth do you think that it can be achieved when the virus can still be caught by, spread by and kill fully vaccinated people?

How does that happen once the majority are fully vaccinated?

At that point there would be only very very limited chance for it to spread (or mutate).

Biden's right to call for a temporary patent waiver. That would really speed things up, with getting the rest of the world vaccinated.

@PrincessNutNuts

That's all a bit over dramatic *@Motorina*

Just put a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system in place and engage with local communities.

No euthanasia required.

Yes. Unpopular with some, I know, but I'd add in masks, including as with much of Europe, in schools, and pandemic border control.

And, not necessarily the case with Senegal (I'm not sure) but definitely with many places, eg. London, proportionally young population doesn't mean small numbers of elderly (London has the largest elderly population in the UK). It simply means there's even more young, because of high birth rates.

Also, one third is still a sizeable proportion.

For example. A sleepy market town in the UK with a high proportion of elderly would still have the same numbers of elderly if loads and loads of young people moved there. It might change the balance to a young population, as in more young than old, but it wouldn't reduce the number of elderly already there.

@PrincessNutNuts

That's all a bit over dramatic *@Motorina*

Just put a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system in place and engage with local communities.

No euthanasia required.

Okay, so how do you propose dealing with: *People who won't download the app *People who ignore app notifications *People who give fake details to venues *People who don't answer the phone to test and trace *People who don't fully self-isolate when they're meant to

There's a lot wrong with our test and trace system, but it's not all issues with the system. Quite a lot of it is people basically deciding they won't comply in the absence of compulsion. Unless you make it compulsary (mandatory app usage, enforced self-isolation, confinment in isolation facilities for those who do not comply...) then test and trace is always going to struggle.

Tealightsandd

DownSideUpped

How does that happen once the majority are fully vaccinated?

It’s happening now. Do you think vaccinated people only catch it from unvaccinated? I was told today that a friend who had covid last year and is fully vaxxed has tested positive today. How is this going to be any different just because everyone will be vaccinated??

How is this going to be any different just because everyone will be vaccinated??

Because then the virus will have very limited chance to spread. Obviously right now it's still spreading freely, because we are far from majority fully vaccinated.

It's also possible we might need boosters, particularly if vaccine efficacy is reduced against new strains, like the Delta Boris variant.

Letting in new strains that are possibly more vaccine resistant, and allowing them to freely spread, means people will still be at risk of catching it and it also increases the risk of mutations developing.

People are catching new strains, which could be stronger against the current vaccines.

Good suppress and contain measures would significantly reduce the chances of that happening.

The trick is to suppress and contain until the majority are vaccinated - and therefore not allowing the virus the opportunity of spreading and mutating in the first place.

@boogiebogie

Interesting data..

The bizarre thing with that data is that the vaccines aren't supposed to be at full efficacy until 3 weeks post second vaccine, so surely that should be the measuring stick, not two weeks?