Why are children suddenly more susceptible?

[WineGetsMeThroughIt]

I've been hearing a lot lately about how now with so many vaccinated more and more children are being seen in the ER and getting reactions to Covid. But why? Is it the Delta variant? Are they just testing more? Previously the govt would report children aren't really impacted by covid hence they don't need to wear masks etc, but now as it seems infections and serious side effects / deaths are being cut in the adult vax'd population all of a sudden children have been made as more prominent carriers and sufferers of covid. But why? Is this just media saying so? Is the delta variant worse for kids? Why is it that now they seem to care more about the infections with children than before??

The graph on the left was shown during the last presentation.
The graph on the right shows the situation more accurately.
I wonder why they chose the graph on the left.

@Hothammock

We are routinely testing children now but we didn't before so no one realised so many were carrying it.

Except school staff. School staff knew. We were ignored, probably deliberately.

@DumplingsAndStew

So many conspiracy loons here.

Go on then, what reason do the Government have to desperately want children vaccinated for no benefit?

Yeah, kind of like those conspiracy loons warning about vaccine passports last year or warning that the lockdowns will last way longer than a few weeks... Oh, wait...

@Honey12346

So no reasonable answer? Yawn.

@WineGetsMeThroughIt

I've been hearing a lot lately about how now with so many vaccinated more and more children are being seen in the ER and getting reactions to Covid. But why? Is it the Delta variant? Are they just testing more? Previously the govt would report children aren't really impacted by covid hence they don't need to wear masks etc, but now as it seems infections and serious side effects / deaths are being cut in the adult vax'd population all of a sudden children have been made as more prominent carriers and sufferers of covid. But why? Is this just media saying so? Is the delta variant worse for kids? Why is it that now they seem to care more about the infections with children than before??

So - firstly Delta is roughtly twice as likely to hospitalise you as Alpha.

But Alpha risk to kids was very low, so Delta is twice almost nothing, which makes it still very low.

But, there are far fewer old people in hospital now for two reasons - vaccines AND the fact that the third wave is starting off in the younger groups. This means that a larger proportion of those in hospital at the moment are younger.

Then as others have pointed out, Delta is much better at spreading through children than Alpha which was much better than the original variant. Because schools are the one place in society where LOTS of people spend a lot of time in close proximity, it is inevitably the driver of this new wave, hence the media attention.

@Buzzinwithbez

The graph on the left was shown during the last presentation. The graph on the right shows the situation more accurately. I wonder why they chose the graph on the left.

I can't see the graphs clearly but presumably one on the right actual numbers while on the left is percentage change or something. Could you post a link? @Buzzinwithbez

@Buzzinwithbez It's not more accurate, just a different way of presenting the same data. The data doesn't change in accuracy.

@titchy

But JCVI have recommended children don't get vaxxed

I don't believe they have... The position is there are no plans currently to vaccinate children. I see this as a holding position rather than a decision either way. With the roll out to adults still continuing apace, there's no scope yet to vaccinate children, so they might as well wait until further data comes out from the US and other places that are vaccinating children.

@Roonerspismed

I think it’s an agenda the government wants to push. Herd immunity can only be achieved through vaccinating children; the vaccines will cause a small number of deaths in children and so they want people to accept that using fear, akin to the AZ vaccine clotting issue.

How does that explain why a number of other countries are saying they are seeing more severe cases in children that with other variants and that children seem to be more affected that with previous strains?

There's no hard evidence yet, but anecdotally, there are enough countries saying there is something different going on with delta outbreaks that it seems inevitable that something will be published in the next few months.

Unfortunately this was always the risk we took, OP.

AND the fact that the third wave is starting off in the younger groups.

tbf, the second wave started off in younger groups and spreads upwards. Possibly the first one as well, but I'm less sure about that one. I don't recall seeing the heatmaps.

We’re not vaccinating children is the fairly simple answer.

Our vaccine strategy means that there was always going to be a point covid cases would be higher in younger age groups. Adults being vaccinated will provide some protection/slowing of the spread but much like chicken pox it will run through the younger age groups. Also, much like chicken pox, this will result in some more serious illness because some children do have worse reactions than others. The variants may make some difference but I wouldn’t expect it to be uniformly dramatic given current information.

I couldn’t tell you why this hasn’t been made clearer, the higher prevalence of covid in children was always the logical outcome of not vaccinating them.

I’m not commenting on vaccinating children either because I’m still undecided on whether it’s necessary. I suspect not once the adult programme has vaccinated everyone who wants it. I’m fairly confident it will be reduced to be comparable with chicken pox as an illness.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201473/covid-19-linked-increase-type-diabetes-children/
I can't find what the results are/were but I believe that there is a link anyway between infectious disease in childhood & getting type 1 diabetes so this is not surprising - type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disorder -

[quote ZednotZee]@Pinchoftums

If they get it through parliament for carers and nurses within nursing homes then I do believe the writing is on the wall.

I hope I'm wrong but Hancock stated in April that it wouldn't be mandatory for nursing home staff and has roundly backtracked. If he gets away with doing so this time then there's nothing stopping him justifying anything and everything else.

This government have the art of boiling proverbial frogs down to a T.[/quote]
There are already quite a few mandatory vaccines for NHS clinical staff; why shouldn’t they have this one too?

Chickenpox or shingles is not just a simple disease & hasn't anybody considered that children will, at some point need to be vaccinated?

What age will this happen -how are we going to define when they become more vulnerable? &what happens -when/if -the next version (if not the current one) does mutate & children do become vulnerable?
The current double vax does provide a decent immunity for severe disease

@Neverfull

Because the current mandatory schedule includes only those vaccines with a proven safety record. HepB for example has been in use since 1986.
Patient and clinician confidence can be assured, not so with the covid vaccines as yet. People should have the chance to wait until they are personally adequately assured of the safety profile of the covid vaccines.

@mumwon

Chickenpox or shingles is not just a simple disease & hasn't anybody considered that children will, at some point need to be vaccinated? What age will this happen -how are we going to define when they become more vulnerable? &what happens -when/if -the next version (if not the current one) does mutate & children do become vulnerable? The current double vax does provide a decent immunity for severe disease

I know it’s not and that’s why I used it as a comparison for covid.

For both a small percentage of children will suffer serious illness from it, a small percentage will suffer long term complications, there are requirements for both to isolate and I suspect that childhood vaccination won’t make part of the generic schedule for some time but will possibly be made available privately.

I’m not sure it works as a valid comparison though.

It’s not perfect granted, I’d be happy to hear a better one

It doesn’t really change the jist of my original reply though. Once the vaccination strategy was implemented the obvious consequence of it was that covid would still spread amongst the unvaccinated in this case children.

I don’t know why it hasn’t been discussed more but there was no other way it could go since we’ve (collective UK we) never entertained the idea of zero covid. I think it should have been discussed more since it was obviously going to look alarming in the figures once the vaccines kicked in.

It might eventually, but while the risks are small for both, I’m not sure they are equally rare. I suspect the risks of chicken pox are an order of magnitude lower than the known risks of Covid.
Secondly, the risks of chicken pox are known while the long terms risks of Covid aren’t at this point. It’s a tricky little bastard of a disease that early studies are suggesting might be leaving physiological changes in a variety of organ systems even in those who were only mildly affected. We don’t yet know what the consequences of that are 5/10 years down the line.

That’s not to say we should vaccinate children, just that there are some unknown risks to deciding that we shouldn’t and just letting it rip through the younger age groups.

Isn't it just because we aren't suppressing the virus at the moment through lock down? So more people are getting the virus in general, which would mean more children are getting it- because they're not vaccinated.

It's also twice as likely to put you in hospital in general.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay I don’t disagree with anything you’ve posted but the situation we’re in means that we have to make decisions on best guesses and experience borrowed from other sources of knowledge because like you say, we simply don’t know.

Outbreaks in children can only (as far as I can see) be managed with testing and isolations. Certainly in under twelves as I don’t believe there’s a vaccine licensed anywhere globally for younger age groups and currently under our lower age limit (16/18?).

That’s not going to be popular with a lot of people already pissed off with the delay to 21/06 but again I don’t really see how this hasn’t been brought up and discussed earlier. As far as I can see there was never an alternative on the table despite all the conversations about all other restrictions. I think it’s been a done deal since the vaccination programme was decided tbh.

I have a 5 year old so it’s not like I don’t have any horse in this race and I’m not exactly overjoyed but I don’t see how else it could be managed within our current strategy.

I’m with you there Cornetta but I suspect you and I might be on the same page I’m terms of general strategy.

I’m not sure the vaccination decision is the issue really is it? It’s a trying to have our cake and eat it problem.

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Also, it depends on the specific statistic you are reading!

As more adults get vaccinated and therefore more of them avoid symptomatic disease, the percentage of coughing, ill patients who are children will steadily increase. It isn't that the total number of sick children is increasing, it is that the total number of sick adults is going down.

I think I would be more worried about flu in children than Covid

www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/21/flu-could-be-a-bigger-problem-than-covid-in-uk-this-winter

It isn't that the total number of sick children is increasing, it is that the total number of sick adults is going down

Succinctly put @BestZebbie

I’m not sure the vaccination decision is the issue really is it? It’s a trying to have our cake and eat it problem

How do you mean? (I’m reading that a couple of different ways - easily confused me )