To Have This Virus Forever

[Dave20]

Just listened to Radio 2s Jeremy Vine show, about the prospect of living with covid forever, which Patrick Vallance has said will be.
Talk of social distancing forever, wearing masks forever and people working from home where they can, still.
Other ideas are staying at home if you’re ill until you have a test.
It’s utterly depressing. What about the financial costs? People having lots of sick leave because they have a cold, and don’t even have covid. People not isolating because they won’t get paid.
How will people form relationships and meet partners?
How can theatres and sporting venues operate with limited spectators?
What about not about ever shaking hands with people or giving people a hug?
What kind of future will our children have? Companies will be smaller meaning less opportunities.
The economic affect of people working at home in mass numbers,ditching the office, leaving ghost towns and pubs and restaurants closing, along with industries in hospitality.
Surely the death rate of covid can’t be worth sacrificing our kids futures? I’m sure even older people who are most at risk of dying wouldn’t want these measures forever?
The one thing I can’t understand is social distancing, the people who want it to stay forever! Many businesses rely on a full ‘house’ to stay open.

Patrick Vallance said Coronavirus will probably be around forever. He didn’t say anything about restrictions being around forever, this was just a discussion on Radio 2.
I get people sent bothered about saving Pret A Manger, if it means they can work from home. But it’s not just the staff in these types of places.
It’s the supply chain, the people that deliver to these places, even down to the farmers who sell the milk.
Same for pubs and restaurants. Knock on effect. But I do think it’s probably easier to get rid of people ( make redundant) when they’re no longer in an office and at home.

I really don’t believe anything Boris says about 19th July. I think there may be some changes but I doubt everything will just be dropped and fully open up again in 4 weeks.
He’s been dangling a carrot in front of us since March last year.

@Gothichouse40

I actually found the government broadcast the other day quite depressing. I do feel life has changed forever and I wonder how my adult children and grandchild will cope with it all. Sometimes, I feel Im not coping. I hate bl**dy queuing with a passion. I have to use public transport and will definitely keep my mask on for that. Nothing spontaneous anymore, book 6 months in advance if you want to do anything. My only pleasures were theatre, library and live music. I feel the joy has been sucked out of everything. The one thing that did concern me was when Mr Vallance (I think it was), mentioned something about future variants. This ain't over by a long chalk. Re masks etc people are already pleasing themselves, but personally I listen to Profs Whitty and Vallance and up here Mr Leitch. They know their stuff and give me more confidence than any politician.

Yes, I've been fairly depressed about things the last couple of weeks.

Slightly different reasons - I think the biggest changes are going to be societal. i.e. while at the moment, you have lots of people desperate to have freedom back and quite prepared to accept low risks - that's going to change over time.

e.g. I regularly attend large dance events. They're notorious for picking up illnesses - obv cold/flu in normal times. A number of people won't attend them for this reason. How many more will avoid them if they become known as a source of mass covid infections?

Ditto everywhere else in life where lots of people come together (e.g. nightclubs, theatre, indoor sports, bingo) - events which are believed to carry the biggest risk will draw fewer people. Over time that will make them less economically viable.

People are already nasty about certain things - you only have to scan the AIBU forum on here to see that some people seem to walk around looking for reasons to be upset with other people. We already have "the covid police" - how much worse it that going to be in future. e.g. I can see the poor kid at school with rhinitis being called the Covid Kid.

Racism will no doubt increase because covid will always be more prevalent in poorer communities, which are frequently non-white.

I can't help feel that in years to come, we'll all look back at this time and wonder why on earth we didn't copy Australia and China and pursue a policy of eradication rather than mitigation.

I don't understand why people are saying social distancing and face masks will be forever. Where are they getting their crystal balls from? Two doses of the vaccine are meant to provide over 90% protection against serious illness from covid. I was watching John Campbell's update yesterday and he shared some very optimistic news about the vaccine providing immunity longer than originally thought. Furthermore if you get covid after having both vaccines, not only is covid likely to be mild for most people, but those people will get even more immunity from future infections. As long as we don't get a variant that completely evades the vaccine, then why can't we return to normal in the foreseeable future? Why are we being condemned to a life of masks, hand sanitisers and social distancing forever more? The biggest risk then will surely be people commiting suicide rather than covid?

I also miss being spontaneous. Just turning up somewhere, like swimming, or a football match.
Booking on line for everything.
I firmly believe most people would like their lives back then live with restrictions forever.

not sure that the 90% figure is at all accurate

and from Sky News

Having South African and Kent variants previously doesn't offer long-term protection against re-infection - study

Previous coronavirus infection may not offer long-term protection against getting the virus again - particularly with the Alpha (Kent) and Beta (South African) variants, a new study shows.

But some people have lost an awful lot. They lost their livelihoods and in some cases their homes. Some people sacrificed literally everything. And they’re being told now it’s still not enough.
The government said it was to protect the NHS. i.e older people who were more vulnerable to dying.The government keep changing the goal posts with new variants.
What’s the alternative ? A county in debt by trillions, high unemployment, masses of people with depression. People would exist in a bubble rather than live their lives to the fullest.

Long Jeremy Vine

Very few people got colds this year because they had to stay at home. That would result in less sick leave and fewer deaths from respiratory illnesses.

The way we've been coughing and wheezing over each other and suffering constant colds wasn't working for anyone.

It's best not to listen to programmes like a Jeremy Vine.
I used to work in central London where the numbers or coffee shops were ridiculous. If they hadn't shut some Prets I suspect that they would be struggling to find employees because of Brexit.
Does anyone know how profitable deliveries and click and collect coffee have been for the chains? Are people who used to buy their coffee and lunches simply getting them delivered? I've noticed that chains like Greggs are on Deliveroo as well as meal deals from petrol stations and supermarkets
I've noticed that Pret do frozen croissants, Wagamama do their sauces in supermarkets and Costa sell their coffee in pods and cans now. Perhaps chains needed this kick to innovate rather than rely on single revenue streams in shops?

Previous coronavirus infection may not offer long-term protection against getting the virus again - particularly with the Alpha (Kent) and Beta (South African) variants, a new study shows.

Sorry, but that's crap - the SIREN study proves as such.

This is from Sky, are they wrong?

Previous coronavirus infection may not offer long-term protection against getting the virus again - particularly with the Alpha (Kent) and Beta (South African) variants, a new study shows.

New research funded by the government suggests that the body's immune response from natural COVID infection can vary between individuals, six months after contracting the virus.

Researchers have carried out a new study that reinforces the need for everyone to get vaccinated for maximum protection against COVID, as vaccines generate higher immune response than natural infection.

Author Dr Christina Dold, from the University of Oxford, said: "Our study is one of the most comprehensive accounts of the immune response following COVID in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals.

"We found that individuals showed very different immune responses from each other following COVID, with some people from both the symptomatic and asymptomatic groups showing no evidence of immune memory six months after infection or even sooner.

"Our concern is that these people may be at risk of contracting COVID for a second time, especially with new variants circulating.

"This means that it is very important that we all get the vaccine when offered even if you think you may have previously had COVID."

The Pitch study, funded by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), involved experts from the University of Oxford as well as Liverpool, Sheffield, Newcastle and Birmingham, with support from the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium (UK-CIC).

@ancientmammal

This is from Sky, are they wrong?

Previous coronavirus infection may not offer long-term protection against getting the virus again - particularly with the Alpha (Kent) and Beta (South African) variants, a new study shows.

New research funded by the government suggests that the body's immune response from natural COVID infection can vary between individuals, six months after contracting the virus.

Researchers have carried out a new study that reinforces the need for everyone to get vaccinated for maximum protection against COVID, as vaccines generate higher immune response than natural infection.

Author Dr Christina Dold, from the University of Oxford, said: "Our study is one of the most comprehensive accounts of the immune response following COVID in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals.

"We found that individuals showed very different immune responses from each other following COVID, with some people from both the symptomatic and asymptomatic groups showing no evidence of immune memory six months after infection or even sooner.

"Our concern is that these people may be at risk of contracting COVID for a second time, especially with new variants circulating.

"This means that it is very important that we all get the vaccine when offered even if you think you may have previously had COVID."

The Pitch study, funded by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), involved experts from the University of Oxford as well as Liverpool, Sheffield, Newcastle and Birmingham, with support from the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium (UK-CIC).

LOL - that's utterly ridiculous.

Our study is one of the most comprehensive accounts of the immune response

In actual paper - "we studied a cohort of 78 UK healthcare workers..."

Yup - quite how 78 corresponds to "most comprehensive" is beyond me.

By contrast the SIREN study involved over 30,000 participants.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00675-9/fulltext

A previous history of infection was associated with an 84% reduced risk of infection over a period of 7 months (and counting...)

Now I didn't watch the interview, so it's possible that what they meant was susceptibility to new variants, which is the same as with vaccines. The further the antigen mutates away from the version our immune system encountered, the greater % of people will become susceptible again.

I'm sure I read this week that both AZ and Pfizer after 2 doses and a certain period of time were over 90% effective against severe covid.

In actual paper - "we studied a cohort of 78 UK healthcare workers
so 'propaganda' from sky then:(

Talk of social distancing forever, wearing masks forever and people working from home where they can, still.

Far better would be to do as other counties are doing. Taken/taking measures now to suppress and contain, so that the future is a return to real normality.

But, British exceptionalism.

Heaven help us customers and clients if it's a permanent WFH. It's been utterly shit standards of service. Really shit. Takes ages to get hold of the right person, messages disappear, giving out private financial etc information whilst hearing someone's family noises in the background. Oh joy.

People who want to let the bodies pile up go on about loss of jobs and affected industries.... Well huge numbers of jobs and related industries rely on office environments and lifestyles.

Masks, for certain situations - the East Asian courtesy for others of wearing one when you are sick to protect others. Well a little bit of civic mindedness like that wouldn't be such a bad thing.

Permanent WFH on the other would be massively damaging.

Shit customer service, poorer access to help for people needing public sector support/help, and a major increase in inequality.

Opportunities for those with the money for a large spacious home working environment. Those stuck in unsuitable cramped flats or HMOs will lose out. As will the young people who will have to start their working lives spending all day in their childhood bedroom.

@Egeegogxmv

In actual paper - "we studied a cohort of 78 UK healthcare workers so 'propaganda' from sky then:(

Maybe trying to encourage vaccine uptake.

Sorry but what’s WFH?

I suspect Boris will just keep saying how well we are doing and what a great effort we’re making. Then keep kicking the can down the road. Until the end of summer, the beyond maybe.
I don’t hold out any hope for freedom day in 4 weeks. Atleast not a fully open country anyway.

Maybe worth getting away from the idea of a “freedom day” - realistically we may have to have periods of measures coming and going for quite some time. Pinning hopes on a magical day under these circumstances seems to me like setting yourself up for disappointment.

Dave, WFH - work from home.

One thing that I always think is what relationships? We are meant to SD forever., erm, how do people meet partners & procreate?! 😂

@SonnetForSpring @Egeegogxmv

I think now I've had more time to read the paper, the "comprehensive" bit was referring to the fact they considered every aspect of the immune response in the patients they looked at.

The Sky coverage is very distorted though it would seem as the paper stated that B-Memory cell responses were long-lasting - (B-Mem cells are expected to last a long time - they produce antibodies when they reencounter the virus)

Possibly the point they were making was that in some people, immunity will be short-lived (which we knew from the SIREN study, as were it otherwise, then 0% of people would be reinfected!).

I don't think the misdirection is intentional here, it's just one of the problems you get when science research is piped directly to the public in this way.

@Bobholll

One thing that I always think is what relationships? We are meant to SD forever., erm, how do people meet partners & procreate?! 😂

Wait - haven't you heard of online dating yet??

Once you've met your chosen partner, procreation can take place via Zoom, and the relevant bodily fluids sent over by courier.

The government keep changing the goal posts with new variants.

Dave20 Do you think the Government just throws out a new variant when it feels public behaviour needs to be changed somewhat? You do recognise this pandemic is affecting the entire world - right?

Why are people lumping everything together and expecting every single restriction to stay forever? It's much more likely that things will return to the "old normal" gradually, and some things may improve while others will be more of a challenge for some time.

Being able to work from home when you are ill (with any virus) for example would be a hugely beneficial as it's always been crazy you are expected to travel to a stuffy office on a packed train and spread your germs to everyone you meet. Obviously this is not possible if you are a supermarket worker or a plumber but they will benefit from less illness being spread around in general too.

Also things like travel to work meetings - you don't really need 10 people to spend a few hours travelling somewhere if you can just meet on Zoom from your own home or office. Doesn't have to be all or nothing though, you might meet in person once every few months instead to not miss out on the extra interaction that's only possible in person, but not every week.

Pret in the city centre may be suffering but the local cafes near where people live are thriving with the new lunch time trade now people are WFH.

Do you really need to shake hands with someone you've just met? (They probably haven't washed their hands after using the loo anyway.) Most of us will of course be hugging our best friends and family members when we see them, though.

It's really not a binary choice between lockdown forever and going back to 2019 immediately.