Hospitalisations

[namechanged984630]

I can't see any other threads in this exactly... can anyone explain to me why hospitalisations are rising roughly in proportion to the cases?

What I expected with a vaccinated population would be cases rise by say 30% but hospitalisations rise by maybe 5% (where previously they would've risen by the same amount as the cases).

I know the delta/Indian variant is less effective after one dose but this data looks to me like it has NO effect? Am I missing something?

And also if it is hospitalising people who've only had one dose that is people 50 and under (over 50s are now double vaxxed). Which tbh I thought was very unlikely? At 2k cases a day (relatively low amounts) I wouldn't expect more than a handful of people in their forties to be hospitalised per week?!

Wonder if I have made a maths error

What data are you looking at?

Just the government data. Cases rising by 20% ish, hospitalisations the same (with lag).

Eh? Hospitalisations are still falling

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_hospital

The rate of decline has slowed but that is not a rising graph.

You need to be looking at the seven day average; not two discrete data points.

Total people in hospital is falling but daily hospitalisations is rising?

Is it because if the prevalence in the general population is higher, then the prevalence in the ill population is higher?
Eg if 1% of population currently has covid then 1% of heart attack admissions likely to have covid. If rate then goes up to 3% then 3% of heart attack admissions will have covid etc.

Just to say that Wales count all suspected cases, and these can amount to more than 20 a day, whereas in reality there are likely to be far fewer than this. This will skew the UK figures - the numbers are currently low so an extra 20 when the day before for example it was only 5 will make a difference to the percentage increase IYSWIM.
Also the figures are not updated daily so are a week or so out of date at the moment.

@boys3 the hospitalisations graph there is beginning to rise. Just like the cases one is. Right at the end

The short answer OP is that when we were told that the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths had been broken that wasn't even a little bit true.

As cases rise, the R rises and so do hospital admissions.

Vaccines have changed the ratio of cases to hospitalisations, and hospitalisations to deaths. Not removed the link.

If the government allow a lot of cases that will still mean a lot of hospital admissions.

Either the vaccines or the Delta variant or both have also changed the relative proportions of the age groups in hospital.

In the current hotspots the proportion of people in their 30s and 40s being admitted would have been pretty unusual in either of the first two waves.

New variant. New ballgame. And we don't know the rules yet.

I know a lot of over 50s who haven't had their second doses yet, and presumably they take a while to work.

Patients in hospital numbers have continued to decline. Admissions have been people getting tests and observations for the most part.

The fact that admissions have mostly been unvaccinated people shows how well the vaccines are doing. The fact that most people admitted or testing positive are younger than previous waves. Also signals this.

ALL the vaccines have now been tested against all known variants and are effective.

Not much else to say really. Other than we were told this is how it would be once we had the old and the vulnerable vaccinated. The young would be more likely to test positive but less likely to spend time in hospital. That is precisely what is happening.

@PrincessNutNuts

The short answer OP is that when we were told that the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths had been broken that wasn't even a little bit true.

As cases rise, the R rises and so do hospital admissions.

Vaccines have changed the ratio of cases to hospitalisations, and hospitalisations to deaths. Not removed the link.

If the government allow a lot of cases that will still mean a lot of hospital admissions.

Either the vaccines or the Delta variant or both have also changed the relative proportions of the age groups in hospital.

In the current hotspots the proportion of people in their 30s and 40s being admitted would have been pretty unusual in either of the first two waves.

New variant. New ballgame. And we don't know the rules yet.

Exactly. Distiguishing between percentages, ratios and risk in terms of how they work mathematically would be a good start.

Of course hospitalisations are rising if cases are increasing! But the vaccine means that a smaller proportion of those hospitalisations will result in serios illness or death. Similarly we'd expect a larger proportion of people being admitted to hospital being younger than during previous waves precisely because the older people were vaccinated first and were higher risk. That was meant he whole point.

That means fewer of them (who are far more likely to die from Covid) contract it, and younger people continue to contract it until we manage to vaccinate them (who are far less likely to get very sick - some will - but a much lower percentage. And we've tried to identify the vulnerable ones and jab them earlier). It isn't a perfect system and can't be, and I am very critical of almost everything our Government has done regarding the panedemic. But vaccines are the ONLY thing they're doing ok at.

The maths means that those people with full vaccination status are now highly unlikely to become seriously ill health even if they contract Covid. Some will. But we accept that with other illnesses and we'll have to do so with this. Then consider how we respond to the countries who massively increase the chances of these novel diseases entering the human population because of their appalling attitude to nature/ animals/ environment/ eating wild animals with no health checks etc.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

People being admitted 'wth covid' has increased last couple of days but it was higher couple weeks ago

But people in hospital 'with covid' is actually lower and dropping - i expect many are testing positive on arrival and are not actually seriously ill given less people every day are staying in hospital

There are currently twice as many hospitals in the UK as patients in hospital so half patients likely have none and the others average 1 patient who probably went in for something else.

so half hospitals likely have none

The idea that hospitals are 'filling up' is ridiculous. There are 870 cases in hospital and almost 2000 hospitals! NHS is hardly over run

@srghcx

I know a lot of over 50s who haven't had their second doses yet, and presumably they take a while to work.

Yes. There are still about 7 million second doses from the JCVI priority groups 7, 8, and 9, to do.

Until at least 48% of the U.K. population has had a second dose the old "the vulnerable are vaccinated" chestnut can't possibly be true.

in fact, given on average 120 people are admitted daily, it would seem most are in and out in a few days - for hospitalisations to be still under 900 and declining. More people leaving than being admitted. That fits with the idea that they are either not unwell or in for other things.

This is like Ground Hog Day... we've been here before, posters boasting we can live with the virus and live again blah blah blah and then boom we are in LD again, with 000s dying.

If anyone here presents (at the NHS) with a hernia, dodgy hip or knee and needs surgery to return to work or to be active again... you will wait years, as well i know as does my in laws, we ve all had to go private to get treated.

So this idea the NHS isn't already over run is bollox, it has essentially become an emergency service only

Any increase in CV admissions will fuck it even further, its a total disgrace.

@jasjas1973 so true, add to that the people who will needlessly die from medical issues because it isn’t serious(now) but once left become serious without early medical intervention,
People are so short sighted and very selfish, it’s always about the holidays they are missing etc no one knows how serious the situation is with the nhs until you or a loved one requires medical attention and you get out on a year’s waiting list.
They didn’t protect the NHS not now, not before. Add to that, the healthcare professionals are exhausted. How much more can they take? They aren’t punch bags.

@jasjas1973

This is like Ground Hog Day... we've been here before, posters boasting we can live with the virus and live again blah blah blah and then boom we are in LD again, with 000s dying.

If anyone here presents (at the NHS) with a hernia, dodgy hip or knee and needs surgery to return to work or to be active again... you will wait years, as well i know as does my in laws, we ve all had to go private to get treated.

So this idea the NHS isn't already over run is bollox, it has essentially become an emergency service only

Any increase in CV admissions will fuck it even further, its a total disgrace.

I agree. There may not be too many covid patients in hospitals at the moment, but the NHS generally is really struggling to start to get back on it's feet. My OH has cancer and is undergoing Chemotherapy. His "care" is a complete joke. It's a lottery whether he can ever contact anyone for advice, his oncologist is constantly not doing what she's said she'll do, even down to not issuing the chemo prescription so that causes wasted appointments etc. He had chemo 3 years ago and it was really all well organised, efficient etc. This time around, "due to covid", it's a complete fiasco and the staff involved are headless chickens.

It's only ever been a Mumsnet myth that people in their 30s and 40s will not get seriously ill with covid. They don't die as often but plenty have been in hospital throughout the pandemic. If other countries are anything to go by, the number of younger people affected seems to have grown over time, too. And now we've opened up everything with a more transmissible variant while these age groups have only just had a first vaccination - which used to be good against the previous variants but now apparently only offers about 33% protection...

@jasjas1973

This is like Ground Hog Day... we've been here before, posters boasting we can live with the virus and live again blah blah blah and then boom we are in LD again, with 000s dying.

If anyone here presents (at the NHS) with a hernia, dodgy hip or knee and needs surgery to return to work or to be active again... you will wait years, as well i know as does my in laws, we ve all had to go private to get treated.

So this idea the NHS isn't already over run is bollox, it has essentially become an emergency service only

Any increase in CV admissions will fuck it even further, its a total disgrace.

Yes. My mum hasn't had her routine 4 monthly eye appointment since 2019.

I'm ok with the general public indulging in as much denial, complacency, elective amnesia, delusion, wishful thinking, and motivated reasoning as they want.

The public is entirely free to be illogical, nonsensical, mathematically illiterate, ideologically blinkered and unable to learn from experience.

We're not in charge, and lives and livelihoods are not at stake based on our respective grip on reality.

But a basic level of logic and competence from our government would be nice.

Especially as they have some of the world's top scientists explaining everything in words of one syllable to them.

The idea that hospitals are 'filling up' is ridiculous. There are 870 cases in hospital and almost 2000 hospitals! NHS is hardly over run

Shhhh - don't spoil it, Watapalava

That doesn't mean that it might not become overrun or that we shouldn't be cautious of course, but irresponsible headlines are hardly new, as we saw when someone linked articles from the last 7 winters with the same dread warnings