Hospitalisations

[namechanged984630]

I can't see any other threads in this exactly... can anyone explain to me why hospitalisations are rising roughly in proportion to the cases?

What I expected with a vaccinated population would be cases rise by say 30% but hospitalisations rise by maybe 5% (where previously they would've risen by the same amount as the cases).

I know the delta/Indian variant is less effective after one dose but this data looks to me like it has NO effect? Am I missing something?

The think about the number of people in hospital vs number of hospitals is more complicated than that, isn’t it.

For a start the Indian variant is growing but is still heavily focused in a few areas so the patients are likely to be in clusters. So plenty will have no patients, but some of high delta variant areas will have lots.

A lot of those hospitals might not be acute hospitals anyway. All very well having no Covid patients in your local community hospital but it’s not much use to you if you can’t get the treatment you need there anyway.

Even if the patients were spread out, Covid patients need a covid ward. Having a single Covid patient in a hospital would take out a whole ward full of beds that can’t then be used for elective or emergency patients. The same happens with any patient admitted once your red ward is full. You have to convert another ward.

It’s not proportional op but you can see the demographic split and the people being hospitalised and dying are in the age range that should have been vaccinated, Ie over fifty or vulnerable and have not been, plus you also need to differentiate between with Covid or becayse of Covid.

The rate of vaccinated people being hospitalised is not rising with the cases.

The fact that admissions have mostly been unvaccinated people shows how well the vaccines are doing. The fact that most people admitted or testing positive are younger than previous waves. Also signals this

I don't get this, why does more people being admitted to hospital than in previous waves prove that the vaccination are working. I get that more younger people catching it could be shown to prove that the vaccines are working but not the admittance

@Watapalava

The idea that hospitals are 'filling up' is ridiculous. There are 870 cases in hospital and almost 2000 hospitals! NHS is hardly over run

I guess the whole concept of exponential growth just sails high over your head doesn't it...

@Whichjab

The fact that admissions have mostly been unvaccinated people shows how well the vaccines are doing. The fact that most people admitted or testing positive are younger than previous waves. Also signals this

I don't get this, why does more people being admitted to hospital than in previous waves prove that the vaccination are working. I get that more younger people catching it could be shown to prove that the vaccines are working but not the admittance

Because if they weren't, then you'd see similar levels of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in hospital.

Actually given that it's MORE likely that you've been vaccinated if you're in a demographic more at risk from covid, if the vaccines DIDN'T work, you'd expect to see a LOT more vaccinated people in hospital.

But "working" isn't an absolute, as evidenced by the number of vaccinated people actually going into hospital.

@PrincessNutNuts ; Vaccines have changed the ratio of cases to hospitalisations, and hospitalisations to deaths. Not removed the link

Exactly this. Our tolerance level is changing - I say changing because we’re still working through first and second doses - it will be a while before we have an exact grasp on what the situation is.

As long as we can deal with what’s happening there won’t be more full-on lockdowns although restrictions have to be lifted with caution whilst we observe the current effects of vaccines.

But why are more young people in hospital this time?

Well put PrincessNutNuts.

@Whichjab

But why are more young people in hospital this time?

Because those who would have been in hospital last time are now (mainly) jabbed. Therefore, they aren't going to hospital - so young people are therefore a higher proportion of hospital patients, because in the main they aren't jabbed.

Also probably that they are also more likely to be going out and doing things (like going to work) and therefore be more exposed.

*Because those who would have been in hospital last time are now (mainly) jabbed. Therefore, they aren't going to hospital - so young people are therefore a higher proportion of hospital patients, because in the main they aren't jabbed

But that's not what pp are saying. Not that there are more as a percentage than old people but that there are more as a percentage than in the first two waves.

But being more exposed, I guess, is a possibility although guidance is still to WFH

@Whichjab

*Because those who would have been in hospital last time are now (mainly) jabbed. Therefore, they aren't going to hospital - so young people are therefore a higher proportion of hospital patients, because in the main they aren't jabbed

But that's not what pp are saying. Not that there are more as a percentage than old people but that there are more as a percentage than in the first two waves.

Another way of looking at it is in the previous waves the hospitals were alerted to numbers by the older age groups and at this point lockdowns/restrictions were introduced. Now the prevalence/admittance requirements in the older age groups are much lower due to vaccinations we see a rise in younger admittances. These ages were previously protected by the older ages triggering alarms to restrict the spread.

The water is slightly muddied by the variants meaning that the behaviour of the virus has changed a bit with regards to initial infections but it doesn’t, as yet, indicate a change in the severity of illness.

Basically the virus was halted somewhat in spreading to these age groups before because the numbers of older patients triggered lockdowns etc.

@Cornettoninja but testing is as good as it's ever been and we would never have locked down at 3k cases per day. I'm very surprised that anyone young is being admitted to hospital when there are such low levels of virus.

During the surges, most areas had hot hubs. This is where people with symptoms somewhere between mild and serious went. They were assessed and then either referred to hospital or for home monitoring.

These are closing due to falling numbers and activity is being displaced to hospitals or gp surgeries. The data indicates most aren’t staying in hospital and don’t have serious illness.

It will end up like the dentists, people with so called non urgent operations like knees and hips will end up going private or they will have to wait years, maybe this is the plan...

We’re not locking down now are we? We’re still implementing restrictions as far as I’m aware and the debate is around how far these can be lifted without risking over pressuring the hospitals from infections in the unvaccinated population. Happy to be corrected.

Also current cases aren’t evenly distributed so the pressure on hospitals isn’t broadly similar across the country.

Cases compared to hospitalisations isn’t what we’d planned for due to the variants that have emerged but it was always the case that it was projected the younger (unvaccinated) population would start generating larger percentages as we opened up. As the vaccination programme progresses the percentage of cases in

@RedRiverShore

It will end up like the dentists, people with so called non urgent operations like knees and hips will end up going private or they will have to wait years, maybe this is the plan...

Its already the case, its been gradually happening for years, CV has just bought the plan in faster.

If you don't believe it, look at the 5m on the waiting list and Johnsons response? a one off, £1 billion increase.

There is no plan to train more Doctors or Nurses (promises to do so but no actual increase in funding/places) and brexit/CV ensures its far harder to attract foreign medical staff in sufficient numbers.

I had mine in group 6 and am only a week past 2nd vaccine having had them both when called for. There will be plenty of 50 - 65 and CV who are not fully vaccinated.

You’d need to define ‘admitted to hospital’

In the first two waves, from what I gather, people were not being admitted unless they were seriously ill... to prevent them from becoming overwhelmed.

Now, they’re more likely to be admitted for observation (anecdotal, but in the case of someone I know in her 20s) and perhaps they’re discharged pretty quickly afterwards.

I suspect it’s a combination of this, and many other factors people have mentioned.

@Sockwomble

I had mine in group 6 and am only a week past 2nd vaccine having had them both when called for. There will be plenty of 50 - 65 and CV who are not fully vaccinated.

You're quite right.

About 6.5 million people from the JCVI 9 priority groups are still waiting for second jabs.

In our area, we've gone from 21.5 cases per 100,000 a fortnight ago, to 70.2.
Yet hospital admissions are 0. There have been 2 in the last 6 weeks. There have been no deaths since April.
The areas where they have seen a marked increase are up north, Bolton, Blackburn etc, and as has been said, these are areas where specific communities are declining vaccines. They are very small areas of these towns as well that are predominantly houses of multiple generations in a terrace.

Because hospitalisations are admissions where the individual is positive for Covid so it goes that might rise like infection rate. Who (if any) of these people are in hospital BECAUSE OF Covid is top secret for some reason.