21st of June

[shakingstevensfan]

I know no one knows what will happen. But I will be really angry if the restrictions end, the hospitalizations go up and we end up in lockdown again.
I know the current restrictions are really harming some businesses. But currently, a lot of businesses are able to be open and make money. People can see family and friends and children are in school and nursery.
If needed I would much rather we operate like this for longer than risk going backwards.

I don't think people appreciate the maths of the situation has changed with a more transmissible covid.

What % of cases do they think will go to hospital now? What % of cases do they think will die now?

We're often told cases don't matter - but of course they do.

We're told the link between cases, hospitalisations, and deaths has been broken - but that's obvious bullshit.

As cases rise, the R goes up, and so do hospital admissions.

If the government allow millions of cases like they did before - then 1% of millions is going to be a significant number.

I also think people ascribe the benefits of a completed vaccinated programme into our ongoing one that has only fully vaccinated 38% of the population.

(And allowing cases to rise pushes up the R and reduces the likelihood of reaching herd immunity which is the main aim of vaccination on a societal level.)

Actually we don't have enough data yet about the new variant. It seems to affect younger populations more than the others.

No one wants to go back into lockdown, if delaying 'freedom day' for 2-3 weeks helps prevent that, I'd rather suck it up.

I read today that mask wearing will still be expected even if 21st goes ahead which is pretty bloody depressing

@AlecTrevelyan006

The overwhelming vast majority of vulnerable people have been vaccinated

We have enough data to know gets ill and who dies from Covid

At a population level the current unvaccinated aren’t a problem

You sound so confident. But have nothing to back it up. The modelling clearly explains why we could be at a risk of high hospitalisations.

What do you mean by 'at a population level' anyway? The modelling is all done on a population level.

The number of people currently unvaccinated who will get either seriously ill or die is insignificant

@dreamingbohemian

Actually we don't have enough data yet about the new variant. It seems to affect younger populations more than the others.

No one wants to go back into lockdown, if delaying 'freedom day' for 2-3 weeks helps prevent that, I'd rather suck it up.

Surely it mainly affects the young people as they haven't had the jabs. You couldn't make this stuff up.

@AlecTrevelyan006

The number of people currently unvaccinated who will get either seriously ill or die is insignificant

that is dependent on how many are infected with covid.

In your detailed workings, what number of inefctions are you expecting and what percentage of them to get hospitalised?

The big I variant is more transmissible (20-50pc more) and not everyone who wants a vaccine has had 2 doses of vaccine, and research shows you need 2 doses of vaccine against this variant. So I would be very, very surprised if all restrictions end on 21 June, unlikely to happen. They will allow a few more things, but masks etc will stay.
I hope some weddings and entertainment (theatre, concerts can go ahead more). These industries need to open up again, but it won’t be with no restrictions. As for international travel, can’t see many countries wanting us as cases are increasing - already a no from France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland etc. No point us allowing holidays to the Algarve etc when it doesn’t benefit us economically. But people should be allowed to go see their families provided tests/quarantine. I can only see a few more things opening up. It is a numbers game.

@colouringcrayons To bear out your point:

Here's the Warwick modelling on hospital admissions and deaths by age and vaccine status.

Red and orange are unvaccinated,

Blue is fully vaccinated.

And of course, in the last two weeks people have died of covid from every age group except 0-9, 20-29, and 30-39.

And people have been in hospital of all vaccine statuses, both, one, and none.

It does not matter if some people do not comply. The current restrictions are mainly about large indoor gatherings in nightclubs, etc. And restrictions in places that are open.
Surely it would be better for things to be open as much as they are and delay total reopening until more people are vaccinated? Then open everything up? There would then be no risk of a lockdown.

If we don't open up I hope all the sheeple accept it's absolutely the fault of Blundering Boris wanting to go to India and keeping it off the red list for too long

I've missed 'sheeple', haven;t heard it for a while

I REALLY want 21 June freedoms to happen, at least outdoors, many people are already breaking the rules.

Alec

Have you heard about what JCVI did ti asthmatics? The majority of asthmatics who were classed as severe and taking steroid inhalers every day were suddenly deemed not vulnerable enough for a vaccine.

This was based on warped data showing not enough asthmatics died of it - apparently 8% isn’t enough because they expected more to die. But because they shielded so carefully they didn’t. The data overlooked the shielding factor.

I had to wait for my age group to get mine even though I struggle every day and have been ill for two months after my kid brought a bug home. Colds go ti my lungs, flu does, but they think Covid won’t! My second vaccine isn’t due yet and I live in an area with the Indian variant rife ... they say two jabs is needed for the vulnerable to be sufficiently protected from it.

Most under 30 asthmatics haven’t had their first dose.

This has affected more than a million people.

Some have even lucky to have gps who gave the vaccine to all asthmatics and overruled the system. But most are still waiting.

Not saying this to argue with you... I just wanted to enlighten you that more than a minority of the vulnerable are waiting to be vaccinated.

@hopingtochangeeachtime

I wonder if Boris or any of his MPs read MN to help with their decisions ?

There's the people who are living their lives doing whatever they please, pretty much all the way through.

The people who follow to rules and are now mixing cautiously.

And half of MN who don't seem to leave the house still and are still washing their post and shopping.

It is about the NHS capacity ( we were told) Surge testing = more cases. I think the media just love w good story to stir people up.

👏🏼

I am doing lots. I want to continue being able to.

all this panicking about Indian variant is recycling the panic we heard about Kent variant 5-6 months ago

@lljkk

all this panicking about Indian variant is recycling the panic we heard about Kent variant 5-6 months ago

Oh my goodness yes.

And that turned out fiiiine.

It only killed 80,000 people and kept us in restrictions from October to now.

The Kent variant was before mass vaccinations tho, and we lost our promised Christmas.

@Averyyounggrandmaofsix

The Kent variant was before mass vaccinations tho, and we lost our promised Christmas.

How could I forget when covid stole Christmas?!

@PrincessNutNuts yes but the difference between the Kent variant were vaccines. SO many people have been vaccinated now.

[quote Lubiluxe]@PrincessNutNuts yes but the difference between the Kent variant were vaccines. SO many people have been vaccinated now.[/quote]
Not enough.

38% of the population fully vaccinated isn't enough.

It needs to be twice that.

41% of the U.K. population is still completely unvaccinated.

And 21% are only partially vaccinated.

Add to that the people for whom the vaccines haven't worked very well,

And the degree of vaccine escape that *Delta, the new dominant variant has,

Then it's clear that the majority of the U.K. population is still susceptible to covid.

*B.1.617.2 - previously known colloquially as "the Indian variant".

I’m happy with how things are at present. Shops, pubs and restaurants are open. Tourist attractions are open. Theatres and other venues are open with social distancing and limited capacity. We can meet up with people in small groups. Life is proceeding in a reasonably normal way. The last thing we want is to ditch all restrictions so numbers shoot up and then we get locked down again. Especially because a lot of people won’t comply any longer so it’ll be harder to get under control.

The other issue is that many people, especially those who are older or have health issues or anxieties, currently feel safe going out because restrictions are in place for their safety. If all restrictions are removed then lots of people will no longer feel safe going out.

When does the government believe that everyone will be double-vaccinated by?

@Wherediditgo

When does the government believe that everyone will be double-vaccinated by?

I think the aim is 70% by September October when the boosters are expected to begin.

On an 11 week schedule those getting their first after the middle of June will get their second in September. Some from July could stretch into October.