Is Boris trying for Herd Immunity in Children?

[wondersun]

Is the government trying for herd immunity with our children?

No mitigations despite increasing cases & more transmissible variant.

No data has been released for schools and the new variant, despite calls from all the unions.

He’s never let go of herd immunity and doesn’t seem at all concerned about the risks of long covid in kids or the fact that some do get ill and that they can spread it to their families.

@WuhanClanAintNothingToFuckWith

Yes, I think he is.

If hospitalisation does not increase, it is a good strategy.

But I think it will be by a combination of infection and vaccination. Children will be vaccinated.

I agree. So they’re managing the waves in schools/younger people (before it filters to older generation or exponential growth). Before it overwhelms hospitals. Going for a combination of natural immunity/vaccinated. Makes sense rather than putting all your eggs in one basket, and never knowing how long natural immunity lasts for.

It is fucking appalling then that medically vulnerable children, like my ds, could be caught up in this strategy.

If this is a strategy, then maybe there should have been some consideration of the lives of those children..whether by ensuring vaccination or further shielding.

Yes, it seems you/they can get a kind of long covid thing even if quite symptomless. Or if you only lost your sense of taste/smell.

@HazeyJaneII

Yes, risky strategy.

@wondersun

Is the government trying for herd immunity with our children?

No mitigations despite increasing cases & more transmissible variant.

No data has been released for schools and the new variant, despite calls from all the unions.

He’s never let go of herd immunity and doesn’t seem at all concerned about the risks of long covid in kids or the fact that some do get ill and that they can spread it to their families.

No, I don't think so. He's just a numpty.

Children need vaccinating, otherwise the virus will continue to circulate and mutate and a vaccine resistant one will emerge.

But that WAS what Cummings’ genius controversial plan was, right at the beginning wasn’t it?

And looking back at what has happened over the last 16 months, that IS what has happened isn’t it?

And the vaccine programme starting from groups 1-6. Top end of risk downwards. Then some people choosing vaccination, others arguing they are healthy enough to chance catching it. We are all quite aware by now of personal risk.

All of the palava with schools. Now the situation with vaccinating younger groups/teens/kids.

That’s exactly what has happened, or been done. Or been managed, or been mismanaged. Whatever your view .... was there ever, really, any other option?

Other than the other strategy of going for zero covid, with borders much more tightly closed. Not easy or good for OUR UK economy forever, if it’s decided zero covid is longwinded and doesn’t work well for us. Constantly batting this thing away, at low-levels with T&T and the strictest of strictest ever isolating and tracking/tracing. Maybe forever?

What if the vaccines don’t work enough, last long enough. What if it turns out natural immunity is better/lasts longer?

What if government and scientists are aware of both strategies and can’t decide/agree which is best. Keep changing their minds, so are hedging their bets and going with both.

It is what it is. And that IS what is happening!

Yes a vaccine resistant one is likely to emerge at some point anyway. From wherever. Then we’ll still have T&T, isolating, some hopefully growing herd immunity and new vaccines to battle it with. T&T might be better by then, people might understand and tolerate it more at lower levels with a clear plan ahead of us.

@paralysedbyinertia

You seem to be assuming that Boris actually has a strategy?

This ^

No, as others have said I don't think he has a strategy. Other than vaccinate adults as quickly as possible.

@WuhanClanAintNothingToFuckWith

But that WAS what Cummings’ genius controversial plan was, right at the beginning wasn’t it?

And looking back at what has happened over the last 16 months, that IS what has happened isn’t it?

And the vaccine programme starting from groups 1-6. Top end of risk downwards. Then some people choosing vaccination, others arguing they are healthy enough to chance catching it. We are all quite aware by now of personal risk.

All of the palava with schools. Now the situation with vaccinating younger groups/teens/kids.

That’s exactly what has happened, or been done. Or been managed, or been mismanaged. Whatever your view .... was there ever, really, any other option?

Other than the other strategy of going for zero covid, with borders much more tightly closed. Not easy or good for OUR UK economy forever, if it’s decided zero covid is longwinded and doesn’t work well for us. Constantly batting this thing away, at low-levels with T&T and the strictest of strictest ever isolating and tracking/tracing. Maybe forever?

What if the vaccines don’t work enough, last long enough. What if it turns out natural immunity is better/lasts longer?

What if government and scientists are aware of both strategies and can’t decide/agree which is best. Keep changing their minds, so are hedging their bets and going with both.

It is what it is. And that IS what is happening!

So firstly - no it was never "Cumming's plan" - the only reason he ever got blamed for it, was people found out he went to some SAGE meetings and they (understandably) didn't trust the guy. But you only have to read the SAGE minutes from Jan/Feb/Mar to understand that our leaders were being BADLY advised. We essentially set out to tackle covid with our influenza strategy which meant making no effort to contain the outbreak at all!

SAGE scientists didn't seem to grasp the situation properly until well into March.

After that we could have gone for zero covid - we were so close! If T&T had been implemented properly, and restrictions relaxed sensibly, then last Autumn's wave wouldn't have happened and the Kent variant may never have got started! But too many voices crying "The danger is past!" wrecked that.

Since then the problem is that you have two groups - on one hand, those who want zero covid. On the other, those who believe we need to "live with it". Our strategy seems to be an attempt to compromise between the two, but in doing so is the worst of both worlds!

Us not vaccinating our children yet, despite other countries starting to do so, isn't a strategy. It's very simply that we don't have enough supply. As our vaccine minister says supplies are 'tight' even for adults.

The decision to go against the advice of many of the experts and deviate from other countries - no masks in schools. I guess that could be a (morally bankrupt and very very stupid) policy. I was literally just reading an interview with an epidemiologist. He explains that if Covid is here to stay for a while (due to open borders and human mistreatment of animals) then measures to mitigate will also have to stay. Including masks.

He described Sweden's initial plan as ludicrous, explaining that herd immunity is only properly achieved through vaccines, not natural exposure - because vaccines give longer lasting immunity and better protection.

With Long Covid risks - the potential long term damage of a new, possibly human engineered/modified disease escaped from a lab - it is playing extreme guinea pig with our children's long term health.

It's also a disgrace, regardless of mask policy and anything else, that CEV and CV children are not being prioritised for vaccines.

Yes, and there is no doubt at all since he sent them back to school for one stupod day after Christmas, in the middle of a mahoosive wave.
And they have not approved the vaccine for children yet. I cannot comprehend it.
But they have worked hard to sell that it does not affect children at the beginning. And there are so many people that take that as the ultimate total absolute truth, forever, whichever variant, that I cannot my hesd around how they think!
It is clear to me that the vaccines are really good at protecting, and that is the reason behind the delta variant affecting younger people. We should ALL have the vaccines now, begore the virus mutates any further.

But you only have to read the SAGE minutes from Jan/Feb/Mar to understand that our leaders were being BADLY advised. We essentially set out to tackle covid with our influenza strategy which meant making no effort to contain the outbreak at all!

SAGE scientists didn't seem to grasp the situation properly until well into March.

Like most people, I haven’t read the SAGE minutes from Jan/Feb/March 2020. China and Italy were well in the thick of things by then. That’s actually scary that SAGE and even the WHO (saying no human to human transmission) didn’t realise what was happening by then! Why not?

The US is reviewing it's position on children and vaccination next week in light of the emerging data on heart issues.

Scotland still has masks in secondary schools and all sorts of other mitigations. Rates of infection are double those in England so they don't seem to make any difference. Scottish schools are already winding down for the Summer holidays in a couple of weeks. Will be interesting to see what happens to infection rates then. However a lot of the data is being driven by the lateral flow testing in schools and so a fall in reported infections won't necessarily signal anything.

Herd immunity in children looks to be an inevitability unless the virus is eradicated in the far more susceptible elderly population. Data from Israel seems to be indicating that vaccinating adults eventually spills over to protect children but it is still early days.

According to the news last week, Israel is starting to vaccinate down to 12 year olds, now yhat pfizer's trial is complete.
US is vaccinating down to those age groups.
There is talk of some furthrr side effects, but I have not read enough about it. Only got some pieces from here and there. Apparently, some of the children vaccinated had some side effects.

@WuhanClanAintNothingToFuckWith

But you only have to read the SAGE minutes from Jan/Feb/Mar to understand that our leaders were being BADLY advised. We essentially set out to tackle covid with our influenza strategy which meant making no effort to contain the outbreak at all!

SAGE scientists didn't seem to grasp the situation properly until well into March.

Like most people, I haven’t read the SAGE minutes from Jan/Feb/March 2020. China and Italy were well in the thick of things by then. That’s actually scary that SAGE and even the WHO (saying no human to human transmission) didn’t realise what was happening by then! Why not?

Err - you should read the Wikipedia page on the timeline of the virus - it's very informative and accurate - I can testify to that as I was following events closely from the second week in Jan.

The initial covid variant had very very low H2H transmission. Out of 92 household members of those initially infected, NONE contracted the virus (they were closely monitored) - THAT led to the perfecly understandable supposition it wasn't H2H transmittable. This was quite early in January!

But that changed quite quickly - sadly AFTER at least 2 people has carried the virus out of Wuhan.

The WHO put the world on alert around the third week in January - they messed up (they admit this now) in advising against border closures, but they told countries to test, track, isolate.

The UK on the other hand had a strategy for dealing with an epidemic, unfortunately it was flu. Nobody at the first SAGE meetings challenged using this strategy (classic group think problems) - and because the minutes were secret back then, no other UK scientist could challenge this, so it wasn't until they ended community testing and tracing for the virus that anyone knew there was a serious problem. The rest is history.

It's a few extremely rare cases. Routine procedure to go over the data but I very much doubt they'll stop vaccinating.

More children and teens in the US were hospitalised from actual Covid (which also causes heart inflammation) than extremely rare side effect. (Incidentally it seems to be mainly male recipients affected by the rare side effects.)

Data from Israel seems to be indicating that vaccinating adults eventually spills over to protect children but it is still early days.

Israel, like America, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, and now several EU countries, is vaccinating children (over 12s).

Also Israel (and UAE, and the others) is using Pfizer and on the 3 week dosing schedule. I don't think we can rely on data from Israel to make our own decisions.

@WuhanClanAintNothingToFuckWith

Yes, I think he is.

If hospitalisation does not increase, it is a good strategy.

But I think it will be by a combination of infection and vaccination. Children will be vaccinated.

I agree. So they’re managing the waves in schools/younger people (before it filters to older generation or exponential growth). Before it overwhelms hospitals. Going for a combination of natural immunity/vaccinated. Makes sense rather than putting all your eggs in one basket, and never knowing how long natural immunity lasts for.

It’s unethical though. They’re threatening vulnerable families with fines and prosecution for non attendance.

They don’t know the long term effects of covid.

Enforced risk taking by a PM who likes a gamble and has no moral compass. Awful.

The initial covid variant had very very low H2H transmission. Out of 92 household members of those initially infected, NONE contracted the virus (they were closely monitored) - THAT led to the perfecly understandable supposition it wasn't H2H transmittable. This was quite early in January!

Actions not words. China's actions - very thorough isolation and disinfection measures in Wuhan made it very obvious this was something potentially airborne and highly contagious.

It's also very basic common sense to take a cautious preventative, proactive approach. Don't let the virus in, and (if a number of cases do leak in) don't let it spread.

With a new disease that has unknown long term effects as well as the risk of death, you don't wait until you know more about it because by then it's spread.

You put the fire out at the first spark, not when it's raging out of control.

@MushMonster

Yes, and there is no doubt at all since he sent them back to school for one stupod day after Christmas, in the middle of a mahoosive wave. And they have not approved the vaccine for children yet. I cannot comprehend it. But they have worked hard to sell that it does not affect children at the beginning. And there are so many people that take that as the ultimate total absolute truth, forever, whichever variant, that I cannot my hesd around how they think! It is clear to me that the vaccines are really good at protecting, and that is the reason behind the delta variant affecting younger people. We should ALL have the vaccines now, begore the virus mutates any further.

I agree. Everyone should have access to a vaccine

@newnortherner111

No, as others have said I don't think he has a strategy. Other than vaccinate adults as quickly as possible.

But he removed masks despite cases rocketing in schools and isn’t releasing the data from schools that would show exactly how quickly it’s rocketting.

@jcyclops

Is the government trying for herd immunity?

YES

Definition: Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that can occur when a sufficient percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections.

Like most governments, and as recommended by WHO, the UK government is pressing ahead with vaccination to achieve herd immunity.

I think it was clear that I was talking about herd immunity via transmission in school without vaccination.

No mitigations for an airborne virus.

Enforced attendance.

Reckless and primitive. We don’t know the long term effects of covid and we have a PM knowingly infecting them. A PM who told us how happy we’d be to hear that he was shaking the hands with all covid patients before ending up in ICU with covid.

I don’t trust his perception of risk.

It’s unethical though. They’re threatening vulnerable families with fines and prosecution for non attendance.

They don’t know the long term effects of covid.

Enforced risk taking by a PM who likes a gamble and has no moral compass. Awful.

Yes. Highly unethical.
Using our children as guinea pigs. When, as leading scientific and medical experts have explained, herd immunity isn't achieved through natural infection. That job is done by the vaccines.

The very least they could do is offer protection to vulnerable children. Let them home school without penalty, if the parents feel more comfortable, and prioritise CEV and CV children for vaccines.

@Moodytoosday

13% to 15% of children contracting long Covid is fine I guess then.

www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/02/long-covid-uk-children-date-cause-concern-scientists-say

The long term effects of even mild infections in children are unknown.

My 12 year old son’s friend has developed type 1 diabetes.

It’s all very well saying we don’t know the long term effects of the vaccines. But we don’t know the long term effects of the virus either.

This is what I think.

We’ve had a lovely day at the beach. I can live my life outdoors for a while and am very thankful for that.

Lots of people can’t though, lots of people can’t be vaccinated for various reasons, lots of people have high covid risk jobs.

We owe it to people to opt for MAXIMUM SUPPRESSION. It won’t go away but every country that has opted for maximum suppression is doing better than us!!

We owe it to people to opt for MAXIMUM SUPPRESSION. It won’t go away but every country that has opted for maximum suppression is doing better than us!!

This. 100%