Indian variant - good news!

[strangeshapedpotato]

www.bbc.com/news/uk-57214596

It's a little mixed, because the protection after a single vaccine dose is quite a bit lower, but after two doses, it's similar to the protection against the Kent variant.

So it's going to boost R a bit, but not massively - may mean delaying June 21st a couple of weeks to get more through their second jab, but herd immunity is still likely to be a possibility later in the year.

The difference between Pfizer and astra is quite pronounced. I don't feel a lot of middle aged working people will be confident with just over half protection.

I don't yes it's better than nothing but doesn't reassure me with 60% efficacy after 2 doses. I work in a high risk environment and currently only have a 30% chance of it working after one dose. Similar odds without a vaccine at 41. However i appreciate the herd immunity aspect. But with so many varients is this likely to be achieved.

I am starting to feel that younger and core working age, vulnerable will now be left to take their chances.

The AZ figures will go up in a few weeks, they are saying. It's to do with when the full protection kicks in (number of weeks after 2nd shot, for example), and Pfizer is ahead here (many more people had their 2nd Pfizer shot earlier than their 2nd AZ shot).

I don't think this data is good news, and it is notable that the government snuck it out at 11pm on a Saturday evening.

We are heavily reliant on the AZ vaccine, especially amongst our most vulnerable groups as they were first, and so that figure of 60% is not terribly reassuring.

Think this twitter thread captures the situation more accurately twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1396332689955950594

Note the bit about 'UK cover up'. We really need them to stop bullshitting. But they won't.

They’re clearly not intending to delay June 21st and nor should they.

That's still way higher than some of the CEV can expect from 2 doses against any variant.

(Feeling stressed here, as teen DC who were approved for jab over 7 weeks ago have still not been offered an appointment, and them bringing it home from school is they biggest risk our CEV person faces)

Half a million people (all ages, including some DC) have been advised to continue to shield despite the formal ending, and all those CEV are advised to live with significant distancing (stricter than current general population restrictions)

When you're thinking about who has been thrown under the bus, please don't leave the CEV out.
Especially as they (and by extension their households) have had the shitty end of the stick the whole damned time

@MiddleParking

They’re clearly not intending to delay June 21st and nor should they.

They’re clearly not intending to delay June 21st and nor should they irrespective of the data. They are following a timeline and ignoring any warnings. Again.

Exactly this how long before autumn comes and the same situation arrives like a at year this has to be done properly for the last time and everyone's sanity

What warnings are they ignoring and who from?

The data refers to symptomatic cases, more arsed about whether they protect against serious illness.

The Indian variant is being dealt with. All future variants will be too. No need to change June 21st plans.

@Fishandhips

The data refers to symptomatic cases, more arsed about whether they protect against serious illness.

I wonder when this data will come months I would think

@Fishandhips

The data refers to symptomatic cases, more arsed about whether they protect against serious illness.

This is what I was going to ask - is that efficacy against symptomatic disease? Protection against severe disease is likely to be higher.

@MiddleParking

What warnings are they ignoring and who from?

SAGE have warned that if the government ignore the risk/early signs that the variant is more transmissible and shows signs of vaccine excape, by the time they react, it may be too late to control it.

Here is the source report if you like to read this sort of thing assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/988205/S1239_Joint_UNIversities_Pandemic_and_Epidemiological_Research.pdf

As they put it Incontrovertible evidence that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible may come too late

What they are saying, in their polite way, is 'Oi Johnson you massive wally, twice now you have reacted too slowly, maybe a cautious approach would be a nice change for the nation?'

"There are insufficient cases and follow-up periods to estimate vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes from the Indian variant but this will be evaluated over the coming weeks, PHE added."

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-hancock-increasingly-confident-england-is-on-track-for-roadmap-after-vaccines-show-promise-against-indian-variant-12314048

@picturesandpickles

I don't think this data is good news, and it is notable that the government snuck it out at 11pm on a Saturday evening.

We are heavily reliant on the AZ vaccine, especially amongst our most vulnerable groups as they were first, and so that figure of 60% is not terribly reassuring.

Think this twitter thread captures the situation more accurately twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1396332689955950594

Note the bit about 'UK cover up'. We really need them to stop bullshitting. But they won't.

Except the most vulnerable, who were vaccinated first, received Pfizer...

I think after a year of being arm chair public health and statistics experts people have become poor at judging risk.

This time last year, a vaccine of any sort seems remote, and efficacy of 50% was cited as a win.

We now have 4+ vaccines which exceed that against all current strains of the virus, and a baseline level of technology and research which will allow the vaccines to be tweaked to match emergent strains (as with 'flu, each year). We also, notwithstanding local outbreaks, have very low general prevalence, reducing the transmission risk (and by happy relationship the mutation risks).

100% efficacy with a new vaccine for a virus which hadn't even been heard of 18ish months ago would be hugely unlikely. The 60% quoted for AZ will increase as more time elapses and more data is availble. Think of it as being 'at least 60%' rather than 'only 60%'. And of that, it is measuring 'symptomatic cases' - not serious cases or hospitalisations. We will have to wait longer for that data, but from my 'arm chair expert' position I can see no reason to fear there will be any significant increase in serious illness amongst those who are fully vaccinated.

[quote conkersarebonkers]"There are insufficient cases and follow-up periods to estimate vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes from the Indian variant but this will be evaluated over the coming weeks, PHE added."

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-hancock-increasingly-confident-england-is-on-track-for-roadmap-after-vaccines-show-promise-against-indian-variant-12314048[/quote]
Yes quite. Again we are waiting to see if it gets bad, rather than taking action to ensure it doesn't.

They expect the AZ one to be the similar to Pfizer after the second dose. . The numbers will just take a. bit longer to kick in because proportionately more Pfizer second doses have been given and immunity with AZ takes longer to be at its peak . . They both have the same protection after one dose of 33% against the Indian variant which is pretty poor.

Again we are waiting to see if it gets bad, rather than taking action to ensure it doesn't.

What is it you want to happen that isn’t currently planned? June 21st is four weeks away. We know that the protection against serious illness will be higher than it is against symptomatic illness. We can’t just stay locked down just in case.

No one expected 100% efficacy or even anywhere up there, the issue is the efficacy being lower aganst this specific variant in combination with it having higher transmissibility.

@MiddleParking

Again we are waiting to see if it gets bad, rather than taking action to ensure it doesn't.

What is it you want to happen that isn’t currently planned? June 21st is four weeks away. We know that the protection against serious illness will be higher than it is against symptomatic illness. We can’t just stay locked down just in case.

I don;t think we need tobe locked down, and I want what I have always wanted:

• improved TTI (not lasy week's bodge meaning hundreds of cases not followed up)
• funded isolation
• masks and mechanical ventilation in schools, plus other measures as needed
• proper border measures

A general level of engagement from our PM would be good. The narrative, each time, has been @this is nothing to worry about... Oh shit now we have to panic'.

We do not have to be locked down. But hiding what is happening in schools is not a sign that the government is confident about where we are really. If we are back to 'we are hiding data so the plebs don't panic' that really isn't a good place.

I feel ‘relieved’, if that’s the right word. I’m fast approaching 57 with my 2nd AZ jab this coming Friday.

Agree with Parking, what is it that you want to see happening here?

Funded isolation? ssp of £95.85 is available.
Masks in schools? Our schools here have only just taken them off. I'm ok with that.
Here, in Surrey, the 15 local boroughs, we have the lowest rates, low down the table, so I'm ok with this.

Oh right, so you copied and crossed out my comment to show your agreement with it. Not really what crossing something out is generally given to mean but ok.

@Oblomov21

Agree with Parking, what is it that you want to see happening here?

Honesty and caution, it is all I have wanted from the start. I am obviously not expecting either as governments have general approaches and neither of those words are applicable to our current government.

They are in conflict constantly, it appears they tussle over almost everything, so there will be the same battle between the two camps over this phase, as with all the other phases. Johnson stuck on the fence as ever. He is slow and indecisive, which isn't great.

If he wants us to go gung-ho, I think the honest thing would be to say 'we don't know how this will work out but we are going for it anyway'. But he doesn't really know if he does want that!

This is a health problem obviously but very wrapped up in our political problems.