Indian variant - good news!

[strangeshapedpotato]

www.bbc.com/news/uk-57214596

It's a little mixed, because the protection after a single vaccine dose is quite a bit lower, but after two doses, it's similar to the protection against the Kent variant.

So it's going to boost R a bit, but not massively - may mean delaying June 21st a couple of weeks to get more through their second jab, but herd immunity is still likely to be a possibility later in the year.

Except the most vulnerable, who were vaccinated first, received Pfizer...

Did they? Not the ones I know.

@nether When you're thinking about who has been thrown under the bus, please don't leave the CEV out.
Especially as they (and by extension their households) have had the shitty end of the stick the whole damned time I find this such a very strange take on the situation (and my child received his vaccine which was due
early in the new year a few days ago). Do you really think the clinically vulnerable have been “thrown under the bus”? the entire country has shut down, people have died alone, been born into isolation, missed operations and education....to protect the clinically vulnerable. How can you not feel cared for? I’m in awe at what has been done and for so long to try a protect us.

@MiddleParking

Oh right, so you copied and crossed out my comment to show your agreement with it. Not really what crossing something out is generally given to mean but ok.

I don't think we know there is reason/no reason to delay June 21st yet. What I do think is the government are not even engaging with this issue again as they have an arbitrary timeline they want to hit for political reasons.

That was what my crossing out and rewriting was intended to explain.

It is like bloody catch-22, if we admitted this variant might require a delay, we could do the things necessary to tackle it, which would make us less likely to need a delay... Instead what Johnson will do is deny that we might need a delay, thus not taking any action all, thus making a delay more likely.

@ncgy

Except the most vulnerable, who were vaccinated first, received Pfizer...

Did they? Not the ones I know.

The MOST vulnerable were first, so yes got Pfizer, but the bulk of at-risk age groups got AZ. Far more AZ was given overall.

Five weeks between steps is the concession to the fact they need to keep analysing the data and a delay might be required. They’re not saying ‘the data on vaccines with the Indian variant looks pretty good so open up tomorrow’, they’re saying it so far looks encouraging for four weeks from now.

Well this has given me a kick up the bum to cancel my second vaccine and i have just rearranged it for tomorrow. I cant hang around anymore for them to contact me. There were loads of appt avail. Wish i had done it last week

The MOST vulnerable were first, so yes got Pfizer, but the bulk of at-risk age groups got AZ. Far more AZ was given overall.

My mum was one of those, still got AZ.

@MiddleParking

They’re clearly not intending to delay June 21st and nor should they.

I kind if agree but then the euros are on Friday 18th June and now is only a small limited audience yet 3 days later apparently we could have a packed stadium?

I wouldn't be surprised if there are still a lot of restrictions.

@MiddleParking

Five weeks between steps is the concession to the fact they need to keep analysing the data and a delay might be required. They’re not saying ‘the data on vaccines with the Indian variant looks pretty good so open up tomorrow’, they’re saying it so far looks encouraging for four weeks from now.

Yes, they are still saying it looks encouraging for four weeks from now - that is my point - they are saying that even though the data today is significantly worse than it was four weeks ago. Most importantly - they are not doing what they could do to make the data better in four weeks' time.

The five weeks between stages was the minimum time put in the plan BEFORE this variant was even a concern. They just don't respond. They are so lumpen.

How is the data significantly worse? Looks fine to me. Definitely not worth delaying Step 4 for.

This is the craziest piece of media spin I have seen in a long time!

The headline, folllowed by identical (if slightly rearranged text) could have been:

"Drastic drop in protection against Indian variant for majority of working age population"

Or

"Majority of population have no or very limited protection against Indian variant"

We need to wait longer to see what's really happening.

Not only as we only opened up less than a week ago (and cases are showing up 10% today) but we now have a clearly more transmissible variant in play.

How many times in Dec did Johnson and co make statements about how there really wasn't anything to worry about?? He still sent all the kids back to school FFS!! And then tens of thousands of people died.

I work in the events industry - I am on the bones of my arse and am desperate for everything to open up.

But to start shouting now about how everything looks like we're on track is madness. I would much prefer to hear "it's likely we will have to delay for 2 weeks so we can be sure that this is the right decision"

So June 21st could see all restrictions lifted with cases rising and millions of CV people only having 30% protection against hospitalisation? Hoping I've misunderstood that

@Halloweenrainbow

So June 21st could see all restrictions lifted with cases rising and millions of CV people only having 30% protection against hospitalisation? Hoping I've misunderstood that

Yes I think you have, symptomatic could mean very very mild symptoms, not enough data about serious illness yet.

@Halloweenrainbow

So June 21st could see all restrictions lifted with cases rising and millions of CV people only having 30% protection against hospitalisation? Hoping I've misunderstood that

The 30% is against any symptoms, likely to be much higher protection for serious disease. After two doses that rises significantly, almost the same as the protection from the Kent strain so nothings really changed.

And by June 21st the majority of vulnerable should have had two doses. I’m right at the end of group 6 and my second is at the beginning of June, well before the 21st.

I seem to recall from the most recent press conference that Matt Hancock said no announcement would be taken until 14 June. So I'm not sure what the issue is right now? I am also reasonably sure I read that the Indian variant is not as transmissible as first thought (certainly not as much as 50% more than the Kent variant) and not spreading outside areas it was first identified in.

So at this stage, is it not just putting the information out there as it arises rather than it currently influencing decisions?

@Halloweenrainbow

So June 21st could see all restrictions lifted with cases rising and millions of CV people only having 30% protection against hospitalisation? Hoping I've misunderstood that

Well, no because most CV people should have received their second dose by now. I think that more or less it is Groups 8 and 9 getting second vaccines now, and the CV were group 6.

"Well, no because most CV people should have received their second dose by now. I think that more or less it is Groups 8 and 9 getting second vaccines now, and the CV were group 6".

Depends on the area though. I was early group 6 for my region and 2nd dose not until mid June.

I'm group 6 & youngish. 2nd was June but has been pulled forward.

42% of adults have already had their second doses. 21 June is over 3 weeks away, so they will have “full” protection by then.

72% of adults have had one dose, so will have at least 30% Protection from serious illness by 21 June.

Plus all those who will be vaccinated with first dose or get second dose before 21st and therefore will have some protection by then.

It’s the unvaccinated teens that are/will be the problem and they are mixing freely in schools already...

The AZ percentage will increase over the coming weeks as more data become available. As already explained up thread. Some people are just desperate for reasons to stay locked up. The vaccines work. We can finally get our lives and livelihoods back and the sooner the better!

Number 10 are blocking data they don't want people to see.
Data on the spread of the Indian variant in schools is nothing being shared.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/22/no-10-tried-to-block-data-on-spread-of-new-covid-variant-in-english-schools

"Some people are just desperate for reasons to stay locked up"

Quite the opposite! Most people hoping vaccines work well so we won't need to.

The 33% figure is strange, seems like too much of a coincidence that two completely different types of vaccines would offer exactly the same level of protection at the same point in time (3 weeks after 1st dose). 🤔

Why would they make that figure up
@nordica?

@Onthedowns

The difference between Pfizer and astra is quite pronounced. I don't feel a lot of middle aged working people will be confident with just over half protection.

I don't yes it's better than nothing but doesn't reassure me with 60% efficacy after 2 doses. I work in a high risk environment and currently only have a 30% chance of it working after one dose. Similar odds without a vaccine at 41. However i appreciate the herd immunity aspect. But with so many varients is this likely to be achieved.

I am starting to feel that younger and core working age, vulnerable will now be left to take their chances.

I think you misunderstand what the %'s mean.

No vaccine STOPS an infection - they just enable the body to clear it quickly before it has chance to spread as far as normal.

SYMPTOMATIC infection is a key measure because if you don't have symptoms, most people think they haven't been infected, but preventing this requires the most efficient response from the immune system. As Van Tam said, it's the first to go when protection isn't complete.

Protection against serious illness is much easier though - it takes around 10 days after infection for people to fall seriously ill - plenty of time for a primed immune system to work. THIS is the metric that matters to people. So what if you have a cough for a few days?

Remember AZ gave just ~65% protection against symptomatic infection with the Kent variant, but 95%+ against serious illness.