Someone please explain the Indian variant and vaccines.

[2boysand1princess]

I’ve not been following the news a great deal recently.
What I’ve picked up from random news feeds is......the Indian variant is here and is predicted to become the dominant strain in the near future and this may significantly impact lockdown opening.
However, has it been said that the vaccines are not effective against the strain?
Also the individuals that have sadly passed with it or hospitalised, were they fully vaccinated?
Thanks. I’m just trying to catch up on the Indian variant and what that means for us going forward.

There's no evidence that the Indian variant can completely evade the vaccine, but it might reduce it a bit.

The big problem is that there are still lots of people who are in the vulnerable groups but haven't had the second dose of the vaccine. The first dose gives lots of protection (over 50%) the second dose tops you up further (probably to more or less complete protection from severe disease /death). It's also possible that protection from the first dose is reduced as time goes on. So there's still potential for a fair bit of pressure on the NHS even in people who have had a dose of vaccine.

Secondly, uptake is lower in some at-risk groups, such as BAME communities.

Thirdly, very few under 40s have had any vaccine. These age groups are at much less risk, but a very small number will still need hospitalisation. If a huge number of younger people become infected in a short space of time then the overall number needing medical treatment could still be large. Plus the other problems above.

That's my understanding anyway.

There has been a minor increase in hospitalizations in areas where the variant is rife, but only in 35-65 yos who haven't been vaccinated according to this article. The problem being that the areas affected have high numbers of unvaccinated people in those groups.

[[BBC News - Covid: Get the jab plea as Army deployed in hotspots
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57126318]]

There's no evidence that the Indian variant can completely evade the vaccine, but it might reduce it a bit.
This.
The other concern is that one dose will probably protect you against serious illness but you may still get a mild dose and may still pass it on whereas two doses reduces transmission.

[[BBC News - Covid: Get the jab plea as Army deployed in hotspots
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57126318 try again]]

Oh dear, I give up

The Indian variant is also much more effective at transmission.

Copied this from this article in the Guardian:
Assuming the vaccines hold up, more people could be hospitalised than in the first wave – putting the NHS at risk – if the variant is much more than 30% more transmissible, University of Warwick models show. At 40% more transmissible, hospitalisations could reach 6,000 per day, far above the peak of the second wave, and 10,000 per day if the variant is 50% more transmissible.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/india-covid-variant-could-lead-to-third-wave-uk

We’ve just had the Indian variant. Or at least DD and DS have. DH and I didn’t get it (no symptoms, 2x negative PCR tests). We were vaccinated 11 days before DD showed symptoms (1st dose, AZ).

I know this is just my personal experience, and may not translate across the population as a whole. But it gives me hope that it might not lead to a huge surge in hospital admissions. And the DC really weren’t that ill. A headache for a couple of days, a sore throat for a few days and (eventually) a bit of a cough. No “classic” symptoms at the onset though (fever, cough, loss of taste/smell) - the cough definitely came later.

We’ve just had the Indian variant.

Out of interest, how do you know which variant they had?

Public Health England phoned and told us (a couple of weeks after the initial positive test).

There are two separate issues and people tend to focus on the lesser one - the increased risk of a healthy vaccinated person getting seriously ill with the Indian variant vs say the Kent variant. We don't know the %, but seriously, FORGET THIS - it's not the main issue.

The problem stems from the impact on transmission which appears two-fold. Firstly it seems to be MUCH more transmittable which means cases will escalate rapidly among the unvaccinated.
Secondly, it appears to have SOME vaccine evasion - a small difference here can translate to a BIG difference in the ease with which it spreads among vaccinated people - so the reduction in R due to vaccines MAY be lost - possibly entirely.

In short - without restrictions to curb its spread, it's rapidly going to become the dominant UK strain and case numbers will once again be huge. At this point, it's a %'s game - even if vaccine efficacy against serious illness is maintained, the sheer numbers of infections will mean many hospital admissions.

And the situation could get even worse- once the variant starts spreading through the vaccinated, it's the perfect scenario for further mutations to further defeat existing immunities.

Quite concerning.
It seems we allow travel u til we know it is a problem and that is too late.

Very worrying @bookworm1632. Thank you for explaining it so clearly though. Do you think the May 17 opening up will be held back?

@OublietteBravo

Public Health England phoned and told us (a couple of weeks after the initial positive test).

So you had it around 2-3 weeks ago?

@ColouringPencils

Very worrying *@bookworm1632*. Thank you for explaining it so clearly though. Do you think the May 17 opening up will be held back?

No - I think they will go right ahead with it and continue with the wait and see while throwing whatever resources they can at the hotspots.

I don't think it will work though - if the variant IS as transmittable as they believe then with fewer restrictions on top, it's going to grow rapidly.

The ONLY thing I could see working now is to totally lockdown areas affected by it, with severe restrictions on travel in and out of those areas as well, but they'd have to implement that NOW as in another week or two, it will have spread to more areas. But I don't think they'll do that either yet.

My bet is that in two weeks, they announce a delay to the June relaxation, and a week after that start to reimpose restrictions in certain areas.

Thanks for all the info guys. Fingers crossed the vaccines get us through this. I’m feeling fairly confident now.

@OublietteBravo

We’ve just had the Indian variant. Or at least DD and DS have. DH and I didn’t get it (no symptoms, 2x negative PCR tests). We were vaccinated 11 days before DD showed symptoms (1st dose, AZ).

I know this is just my personal experience, and may not translate across the population as a whole. But it gives me hope that it might not lead to a huge surge in hospital admissions. And the DC really weren’t that ill. A headache for a couple of days, a sore throat for a few days and (eventually) a bit of a cough. No “classic” symptoms at the onset though (fever, cough, loss of taste/smell) - the cough definitely came later.

This is interesting. As I understand it children are seldom particularly ill with covid anyway. But 11 days after one dose of AZ you weren't infected in spite of two infected and symptomatic DC in the house.

SAGE said yesterday:

22. Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

(Non Pharmaceutical Interventions -also known as NPIs are things like masks, social distancing, working from home, not mixing indoors etc)

46% of the population are completely unvaccinated so herd immunity can't help us stop the spread.

Therefore we need restrictions to reduce contacts.

Here's a model from Warwick Uni which assumes the vaccines give complete protection.

The different size peaks are just from increases in transmissibility.

This variant is believed to be 50% more transmissible.

DD had a positive lateral flow on 2 May and a positive PCR on 3 May. Public Health England phoned yesterday (14 May). They asked some extra questions about symptoms and contacts (very few - DD had a minor operation on 30 April, so she had a PCR test at the hospital on 26 April, and then we all self-isolated until her operation).

Her 26 April PCR was negative. She almost certainly caught covid at the hospital.

For completeness: we all did a PCR on 3 May. DD and DS were both positive. DH and I were both negative. DH and I did another PCR on 13 May. Both still negative.

This is a nice balanced article about the current situation. Unlike the normal newspaper stories

inews.co.uk/news/politics/indian-variant-vaccine-efficacy-covid-strain-modest-reduction-1001431

Seems to be breaking through even the Pfizer and Moderna protection, based on the Singapore airport cluster:

www.nytimes.com/2021/05/14/world/asia/singapore-covid-restrictions.html

But no one is seriously ill, which is what matters.

@OublietteBravo

For completeness: we all did a PCR on 3 May. DD and DS were both positive. DH and I were both negative. DH and I did another PCR on 13 May. Both still negative.

Thats good to hear 😊

I can't really find any detailed information about the Singapore situation. Other than this

'None of the cases linked to the airport outbreak are believed to have resulted in critical illness or death, according to officials.'

Which is obviously a good sign the vaccines are doing what they were made to do.

As for infections and transmission we need to know stuff like when they were vaccinated and how big a gap between doses. We are definitely getting more evidence that a longer gap helps with stopping infections.