Someone please explain the Indian variant and vaccines.

[2boysand1princess]

I’ve not been following the news a great deal recently.
What I’ve picked up from random news feeds is......the Indian variant is here and is predicted to become the dominant strain in the near future and this may significantly impact lockdown opening.
However, has it been said that the vaccines are not effective against the strain?
Also the individuals that have sadly passed with it or hospitalised, were they fully vaccinated?
Thanks. I’m just trying to catch up on the Indian variant and what that means for us going forward.

More from SAGE:

1. It is therefore highly likely that this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (high confidence), and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible. There are also plausible biological reasons as to why some of the mutations present could make this variant more transmissible.

More from SAGE:

8. In the areas where numbers of infections are increasing rapidly under the measures currently in place, an even faster increase can be expected if measures are relaxed (high confidence).

More from SAGE:

1. If this variant were to have a 40% to 50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7, sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England (SAGE 88) indicate that it is likely that progressing with Step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks). Progressing with both Steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak. Smaller transmission advantage would lead to smaller peaks.

More from SAGE:

10. Early indications are that there is some antigenic distance between B.1.617.2 and wild-type virus, and that this distance is greater than that for B.1.1.7, but less than for B.1.351, and similar to that for B.1.617.1 (low confidence). This means that there may be some reduction in protection given by vaccines or by naturally acquired immunity from past infection, though data on this are still mixed.

More from SAGE:

11. Any such reduction is likely to affect protection against infection more than protection against severe disease or death. If protection against infection were reduced it could contribute to a transmission advantage over B.1.1.7. PHE has linked data on vaccinations and variants and is monitoring for any signals of an impact on vaccine efficacy.

More from SAGE:

12. There is not yet any clear evidence of any difference in disease severity following infection with this variant. The number of hospitalisations remains low in the affected areas, though this could be because the number of infections has only recently increased. As emphasised by SAGE previously rapid sequencing of hospitalised cases and infections post vaccination is important, and work is underway to increase the proportion of these cases sequenced.

More from SAGE:

14. The ‘earlier, harder, broader’ principles of responding quickly, taking strong measures, and doing so over a wider geography than where the issues have been identified in response to outbreaks, remain relevant. Testing, tracing and, in particular, isolating cases remains very important.

More from SAGE:

15. If vaccination reduces the likelihood of transmission for this variant, increasing regional vaccination in areas where it is prevalent could dampen growth in infections, although it takes several weeks for vaccines to provide protection. The benefits would need to be balanced against the costs of moving vaccines from elsewhere. JCVI continues to review the evidence on different vaccination strategies.

Utterly shit for the NHS and frontline staff who will be exposed to the patients who do get seriously ill with this Indian variant and expose NHS frontline staff to massive huge viral loads.

I very much hope there will be priority boosters given to NHS staff who have to treat Covid patients face-to-face. And perhaps to the immediate households of these staff (sharing bathrooms, washing machines etc) to slow the transmission of the variant back out into the community (and protect the health of these staff and their families whose health and lives have been continuously put at risk by their employer).

Last one from SAGE:

1. R is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.1 in England, between 0.8 and 1.0 in Scotland, between 0.7 and 1.0 in Wales, and between 0.8 and 1.1 in Northern Ireland. R is an indicator that lags by 2 to 3 weeks, and estimates are averages over populations and areas.
2. For the most recent week of the study (2 May to 8 May), the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey estimates that an average of 40,800 people had COVID-19 in the community in England (credible interval 31,900 to 50,900), 4,200 in Scotland (credible interval 1,900 to 7,700), 700 in Wales (credible interval 100 to 1,900) and 1,300 in Northern Ireland (credible interval 300 to 3000). SPI-M estimates that there are between 1,000 and 7,000 new infections per day in England.

Links here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-89-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-13-may-2021/sage-89-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-13-may-2021

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/986709/S12377SPI-M-OConsensussStatement.pdf

Anecdotal, I know, but a family member was recently in India (early 70s) and was repetitively exposed to Covid positive cases in her family there. She had had 2 doses of Pfizer in the US - didn’t get it, multiple Covid tests, close contact with multiple Covid cases.

It is hard to tell with such antidotes if she didn't get it or got it but didn't know. However good to here

There has been some anecdotal evidence coming from hospitals in India that they are full of unvaccinated people. They see very few vaccinated people testing positive. The ones that do have no symptoms or only very mild ones. So fingers crossed that is true.

We need descent data from India really. Goodness knows if that is possible the state they are in at the moment.

Some evidence we do have that the vaccines are probably working well in India can be seem here

@TruelyWonder did you mean to add a link?

They are using AZ

[quote Catslovepies]@TruelyWonder did you mean to add a link?[/quote]
Thanks😂

In Bolton we have this but it is to early to tell yet. Older people often get infected after the young

You can see though looking at the graphs for Bolton and Blackburn that so far the vaccinated older people are ok. So things crossed that continues because it would should the vaccines are working.

*show not should

@AzureTwist

Quite concerning. It seems we allow travel u til we know it is a problem and that is too late.

Absolutely agree and we don’t enforce quarantine which would have stopped the spread...

The Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in Delhi said on Saturday on the basis of an observational study that 97.38 per cent of those vaccinated were protected from the COVID-19 infection and the chances of hospitalisation after the vaccination are 0.06 per cent.

www.hindustantimes.com/lifestyle/health/hospitalisation-chances-after-covid-vaccination-are-0-06-apollo-hospital-study-101621089347535.html

Apparently the India variant version we have was circulating in Delhi in the time period of infection. So if this is all true the vaccine should still be as good as we expect it to be. They are currently using using there AZ or the Indian versions of AZ. All vaccines are expected to work well if one does though. So that doesn't matter much.

Those are fab graphs. Interesting that 40-59 had rising cases when this group has all been offered 1 vaccine now.

Maybe the 2nd dose is key.

Definitely a case for vaccinating the young in that graph. Especially as education is already being severely disrupted in year groups where India variant has been detected (whole year groups doing home learning again now).

Hancock said that a lot of the cases in hospital are people eligible to have the vaccine but haven't. Take up in some areas of Bolton is apparently very low. Though the vaccination queues there this weekend for the vac bus may help with that

www.politico.eu/article/eu-regulator-confident-vaccines-work-against-indian-coronavirus-variant/

I can tell you it’s a very difficult picture, first not all tests have the sequencing done , the proportion they do has gone up but it’s certainly not all , then to know who is ill in hospital , if they are already vaccinated or not , one dose or two, that’s a different data set, then to know if they have the Indian variant, putting all that information together is a very difficult task , I would honestly say that the data is inconclusive at the moment ,and will be for a while until they can find some way of putting all that data together- plus the lag on deaths from covid is about 3 weeks …