Stop panicking about variants says top expert

[CottageGardener]

People need to "stop panicking" every time a new coronavirus variant is identified in the UK, a leading scientist has said, amid concern about the growing number of cases of the Indian variant.

Professor Robert Dingwall, who is a member of the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, said that while the Indian variant may be capable of becoming the dominant variant in the UK, the risk of a surge in deaths or hospital admissions remains low.

Prof Dingwall, of the School of Social Sciences at Nottingham Trent University, told the PA news agency: "This variant seems to be better managed by the vaccines than the South African variant so that vaccinated people have only a very low risk of infection that is likely to be mild."

Source: BBC news

[quote scratchmeandyoullfindthenc]@SonnetForSpring But the partial selection pressure is not necessarily to be feared. Only if makes people so sick that they need hopspitalisation. What Prof Dingwall is arguing is that there isn't sufficient evidence to believe it would set us back and escape the vaccine. Having people in your house is indeed high risk for catching it, but it is now not for being hospitalised or dying. My colleagues and I were expecting to see much high rates of hospitalisation as we opened up, but, nationally, we haven't, which is fantastic. We need to monitor closely between now and the June deadline to see what happens.

I think it comes down to the level of risk we are prepared to live with and one's perception of the likelihood of a mutation that escapes the vaccine to the point that it hospitalizes and kills large numbers of people. My view is that the evidence we now have is that that is very unlikely to happen and I'm mindful of the risks of cautious opening too. You disgree and are entitled to do so. At what point would you be happy to proceed? What conditions need to be met for you to be satified we could proceed with the relaxation scheduled for Monday?[/quote]
I understand. I'm happy to proceed with Monday if it was done in the way the government is advising it to be done. The issue is people think the threat is gone or doesn't matter. So Monday signifies much more than a few rule relaxations. I would like everyone to be mindful of the risks just as you are. Being mindless is what is going to cause us issues down the road. I don't want another lockdown at all. I want us to compromise and learn to live with covid. That requires acceptance of its nature. Which is not forthcoming from the general public at the moment. The theme seems to be they are done with it and won't put up with it anymore. That's just not going to work.

the government are busy gathering data on all variants

so they need to know if the new ones are more dangerous to the young and if so will they mainly get a mild illness or be hospitalised and secondly of those who are catching the new virus variant - how many are vaccinated and are any of that group in hospital

that will affect what happens . Just feel grateful we have testing and data analysis as at least they can perhaps localise mass testing and vaccination .

viruses mutate and at least we are analysing that .

Great post from Moondust001 i totally agree.

Lockdown as a policy was only suitable for short-term, emergency measures. We’re past the point of expecting high compliance already, this is a different stage of the pandemic and the approach has to take into consideration much wider issues than simply Covid suppression.

On the news now they're talking about rates of infection, the proportion which are Indian variant, that more cases are in younger people.... all sounds scary. But how many people are seriously ill, hospitalised and dying? That's the number we need to look at.

By all means we may need to pause for a while, but I think the way its being reported could make some people panic and worry that we're heading back into NHS overwhelm, high death rates and lockdowns. I know I can't bear the thought of another lockdown, school closures etc. So if you weren't listening properly to what is being reported you could panic and feel despair. Which in my opinion would be unnecessary and there's no need to panic people.

@RubyFowler

On the news now they're talking about rates of infection, the proportion which are Indian variant, that more cases are in younger people.... all sounds scary. But how many people are seriously ill, hospitalised and dying? That's the number we need to look at.

By all means we may need to pause for a while, but I think the way its being reported could make some people panic and worry that we're heading back into NHS overwhelm, high death rates and lockdowns. I know I can't bear the thought of another lockdown, school closures etc. So if you weren't listening properly to what is being reported you could panic and feel despair. Which in my opinion would be unnecessary and there's no need to panic people.

That the whole point. We won't know the implications on hospitalizations for a several weeks by which point it will be much harder to control.

@Unsure33

the government are busy gathering data on all variants

so they need to know if the new ones are more dangerous to the young and if so will they mainly get a mild illness or be hospitalised and secondly of those who are catching the new virus variant - how many are vaccinated and are any of that group in hospital

that will affect what happens . Just feel grateful we have testing and data analysis as at least they can perhaps localise mass testing and vaccination .

viruses mutate and at least we are analysing that .

Yes this data is key. I think the interpretation of that data needs careful, non sensationalist reporting in the media too. See my previous post. There's a risk of scaremongering at the moment.

@SonnetForSpring
There are some things you can't argue with...gravity is one of them and evolutionary biological mechanisms is another

And therein, you just proved my point. If you were a scientist of any sort, you would know that both these things can be argued with! They said pretty much the same thing to Galileo about that sun going around the earth. The speed at which scientific and technological understanding evolves today is unprecedented. And it's getting faster. I am old enough to have day down and watched this new fangled programme with my dad some decades ago. It was called Star Trek. In those days they didn't refer to it as the original series. It was the only series.

Rubbish said the scientists. You can't have communication methods that span a planet, fit in your pocket, and don't have wires. You couldn't possible have a computer linked to many other servers that would fit in your handbag.Welcome to smartphones and tablets. You couldn't possibly have warp speed. It's now a legitimate field of science and theoretically proven as possible. You can't zap atoms and molecules through space in a transporter. Well actually, we can already do that - only short distances, and only at a molecular level, so it'll be a bit before the holiday is taken by instant transportation from a pad... but its already possible and bening worked on.

Never ever take science for granted. And never assume it knows the answers. It knows some of the answers, sometimes, in some circumstances.

That the whole point. We won't know the implications on hospitalizations for a several weeks by which point it will be much harder to control.

By all means pause. I just think the reporting of this variant needs to be managed carefully.
Lots of people have really struggled with the lockdowns myself included.
If I thought we would be back where we were in January again, I would really struggle with that. I think the reporting needs to be accurate of course, but not scaremongering.

[quote Moondust001]@SonnetForSpring
There are some things you can't argue with...gravity is one of them and evolutionary biological mechanisms is another

And therein, you just proved my point. If you were a scientist of any sort, you would know that both these things can be argued with! They said pretty much the same thing to Galileo about that sun going around the earth. The speed at which scientific and technological understanding evolves today is unprecedented. And it's getting faster. I am old enough to have day down and watched this new fangled programme with my dad some decades ago. It was called Star Trek. In those days they didn't refer to it as the original series. It was the only series.

Rubbish said the scientists. You can't have communication methods that span a planet, fit in your pocket, and don't have wires. You couldn't possible have a computer linked to many other servers that would fit in your handbag.Welcome to smartphones and tablets. You couldn't possibly have warp speed. It's now a legitimate field of science and theoretically proven as possible. You can't zap atoms and molecules through space in a transporter. Well actually, we can already do that - only short distances, and only at a molecular level, so it'll be a bit before the holiday is taken by instant transportation from a pad... but its already possible and bening worked on.

Never ever take science for granted. And never assume it knows the answers. It knows some of the answers, sometimes, in some circumstances.[/quote]
Not even worth debating with you.

I do work in science and it is always evolving. That doesn't meant you can use that argument for everything. As you well know.

@SonnetForSpring

I do work in science and it is always evolving. That doesn't meant you can use that argument for everything. As you well know.

No, you really don't work on science. Your posts demonstrate no characteristics of a scientist. But we agree on one thing. There is no point debating with you because you do nothing but spout tired opinions with no evidence. So I'm not debating with you. I am correcting the rubbish you are spouting so that other people of intelligence are able to consider the alternatives and come to their own decisions. Unlike you, I am not married to an agenda that forces my opinion on the actions of others. In this day, it is entirely possible for anyone who wishes to stay at home forever and not mix to do so - providing they can afford to pay for that choice. But whilst a minority of the entitled, working from home, middle classes do that, all the rest of us want the right to make our own decisions based on reality and the widest view of risks and impacts. As they always have, even before social media and social forums existed to churn out endless opinions of the uninformed claiming to be things that they clearly aren't.

Well said moon dust.
The people have spoken
The people are out of the can and they aren’t going back in.

In fact most have been out of the can ages...if york market is anything to go by
Bloody brilliant on a weekend with all its food stalls.. like a mini Camden

Me I looking forward to the cinema and will go and see any old shite.. just cos I can 😁

@Moondust001 well said. Enough is enough now. People aren't going to keep complying, not with the goalposts continually being moved. Do we hide away forever in fear of variants? Fuck that.

Exactly strawberry
People have been so good for too long

Monday is going to be like the Notting hill carnival
Like the real VE Day in 1945
I expect there’ll be lots of hugging and dancing in the street

Moondust, you are absolutely delusional.

Moondust yep, ignore pp ;

We all need to calm down. This is very minor.