Stop panicking about variants says top expert

[CottageGardener]

People need to "stop panicking" every time a new coronavirus variant is identified in the UK, a leading scientist has said, amid concern about the growing number of cases of the Indian variant.

Professor Robert Dingwall, who is a member of the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, said that while the Indian variant may be capable of becoming the dominant variant in the UK, the risk of a surge in deaths or hospital admissions remains low.

Prof Dingwall, of the School of Social Sciences at Nottingham Trent University, told the PA news agency: "This variant seems to be better managed by the vaccines than the South African variant so that vaccinated people have only a very low risk of infection that is likely to be mild."

Source: BBC news

Testing and isolating really is the main issue I think. No one wants to isolate as far as I can tell. Which is why they don't test, which is why they pretend covid is not a threat. Otherwise, they wouldn't be able to live with the damage they are causing to people who are falling ill.

Anyway, my point was, but I got sidetracked, that the relaxation they've decided not to do was to allow you to see any more people in your house (not sure whether they were thinking of extending the extended households or moving to something like England).

@110APiccadilly

Anyway, my point was, but I got sidetracked, that the relaxation they've decided not to do was to allow you to see any more people in your house (not sure whether they were thinking of extending the extended households or moving to something like England).

Which is very sensible.

For people who say that vaccines can be tweaked. True. But it takes time to manufacture, distribute and develop immunity. It's hardly a quick-fix. Effort has been amazing but we're 6 months into the current roll-out and there's still millions of people yet to have their first dose!

5 minutes covid tests would be a game changer I feel. Then pubs/restaurants/theatres could test before entry. Along side all other covid secure recommendations.

I really hope England doesn't relax the inside households rule on Monday. We know that's were the bulk of transmission occurs. The weather is improving towards summer.

I think that is perhaps where we diverge then because I dont think it is just about working within the parameters of the virus. It is about understanding those parameters and we can best fit them into managing life alongside them.

@Quartz2208

I think that is perhaps where we diverge then because I dont think it is just about working within the parameters of the virus. It is about understanding those parameters and we can best fit them into managing life alongside them.

What's the difference?

They will be adjusted at some point

Well that is sinister as fuck.

@LucilleTheVampireBat

They will be adjusted at some point

Well that is sinister as fuck.

Well, its certainly not all roses is it. Unless. Boris has just scheduled a press conference to wish all a lovely weekend.

I don’t think anyone is wanting lockdown forever or revelling in worrying about new variants. I think many of us who are concerned would just like the government to listen to the scientists and take early action. We can’t just rely on vaccinations, they are wonderful and making a huge difference but they aren’t 100 percent effective so the more Covid spreads the greater the number of people who will be effected by vaccine failure. The government were warned about the Indian variant and advised to take action weeks ago but once again they took action too late. Early closure of the boarders / compulsory hotel quarantine on return from India and surge testing when they were still deciding if it was a concern would have prevented the situation we are now in. The government and many people on here who just want normality to return don’t seem to realise that early action, better testing, excellent contact tracing, huge caution with new variants, better financial support for people isolating are all essential to allow us to learn to live with this. Vaccines alone and wanting this to be over won’t result in normality. The issue with this variant is that it’s so much more transmissible, yes the vaccinations should work against it, yes the most vulnerable are vaccinated but there are still many adults not vaccinated, large numbers partially vaccinated and all children unvaccinated. If this variant is very transmissible then it allows for it to spread quickly which could cause huge disruption in schools etc and all the knock on effects and larger numbers of people will be effected by vaccine failure than if community transmission were low which could start to lead to more hospital admissions and deaths again. Our government have dealt with the whole thing appallingly, it’s not as simple as people being over covid it’s about sensible, preemptive action being taken to avoid further lockdowns. Unfortunately the government failed to act at a point where these actions would have had minimal impact on society as a whole and the longer they hold off action, the more disruptive the action will be. The countries who are coping well with covid are the ones that took quick and decisive action. Our government never seem to learn and are always too late! The vaccine drive has gone so well and has been really working, we were always warned that the biggest threat to this was new variants so why hasn’t more action been taken to prevent variants being imported. I don’t care about people being able to go on holiday I just want normality in the U.K. and the government seem to screw it up time and time again, always thinking they know better than the scientists. They keep trying to put the economy before health and as a result let things spiral so badly that we’ve had thousands of deaths and huge damage to the economy and people’s livelihoods too. It’s possible to be cautious and as a result get the normality everyone wants.

@Rainbowsandstorms

I don’t think anyone is wanting lockdown forever or revelling in worrying about new variants. I think many of us who are concerned would just like the government to listen to the scientists and take early action. We can’t just rely on vaccinations, they are wonderful and making a huge difference but they aren’t 100 percent effective so the more Covid spreads the greater the number of people who will be effected by vaccine failure. The government were warned about the Indian variant and advised to take action weeks ago but once again they took action too late. Early closure of the boarders / compulsory hotel quarantine on return from India and surge testing when they were still deciding if it was a concern would have prevented the situation we are now in. The government and many people on here who just want normality to return don’t seem to realise that early action, better testing, excellent contact tracing, huge caution with new variants, better financial support for people isolating are all essential to allow us to learn to live with this. Vaccines alone and wanting this to be over won’t result in normality. The issue with this variant is that it’s so much more transmissible, yes the vaccinations should work against it, yes the most vulnerable are vaccinated but there are still many adults not vaccinated, large numbers partially vaccinated and all children unvaccinated. If this variant is very transmissible then it allows for it to spread quickly which could cause huge disruption in schools etc and all the knock on effects and larger numbers of people will be effected by vaccine failure than if community transmission were low which could start to lead to more hospital admissions and deaths again. Our government have dealt with the whole thing appallingly, it’s not as simple as people being over covid it’s about sensible, preemptive action being taken to avoid further lockdowns. Unfortunately the government failed to act at a point where these actions would have had minimal impact on society as a whole and the longer they hold off action, the more disruptive the action will be. The countries who are coping well with covid are the ones that took quick and decisive action. Our government never seem to learn and are always too late! The vaccine drive has gone so well and has been really working, we were always warned that the biggest threat to this was new variants so why hasn’t more action been taken to prevent variants being imported. I don’t care about people being able to go on holiday I just want normality in the U.K. and the government seem to screw it up time and time again, always thinking they know better than the scientists. They keep trying to put the economy before health and as a result let things spiral so badly that we’ve had thousands of deaths and huge damage to the economy and people’s livelihoods too. It’s possible to be cautious and as a result get the normality everyone wants.

Exactly.

@SonnetForSpring so lets say COVID is the square peg and normal life is a round hole. You are saying we need to work with the parameters of the square peg and therefore make the whole square. I am saying there has to be a point where we instead trying to make the peg circle in order to fit into the whole.

At the moment though we seem to still be trying to fit the square peg into the round hole again and again and again.

I have no idea why I have written whole instead of hole!

@Rainbowsandstorms

I don’t think anyone is wanting lockdown forever or revelling in worrying about new variants. I think many of us who are concerned would just like the government to listen to the scientists and take early action. We can’t just rely on vaccinations, they are wonderful and making a huge difference but they aren’t 100 percent effective so the more Covid spreads the greater the number of people who will be effected by vaccine failure. The government were warned about the Indian variant and advised to take action weeks ago but once again they took action too late. Early closure of the boarders / compulsory hotel quarantine on return from India and surge testing when they were still deciding if it was a concern would have prevented the situation we are now in. The government and many people on here who just want normality to return don’t seem to realise that early action, better testing, excellent contact tracing, huge caution with new variants, better financial support for people isolating are all essential to allow us to learn to live with this. Vaccines alone and wanting this to be over won’t result in normality. The issue with this variant is that it’s so much more transmissible, yes the vaccinations should work against it, yes the most vulnerable are vaccinated but there are still many adults not vaccinated, large numbers partially vaccinated and all children unvaccinated. If this variant is very transmissible then it allows for it to spread quickly which could cause huge disruption in schools etc and all the knock on effects and larger numbers of people will be effected by vaccine failure than if community transmission were low which could start to lead to more hospital admissions and deaths again. Our government have dealt with the whole thing appallingly, it’s not as simple as people being over covid it’s about sensible, preemptive action being taken to avoid further lockdowns. Unfortunately the government failed to act at a point where these actions would have had minimal impact on society as a whole and the longer they hold off action, the more disruptive the action will be. The countries who are coping well with covid are the ones that took quick and decisive action. Our government never seem to learn and are always too late! The vaccine drive has gone so well and has been really working, we were always warned that the biggest threat to this was new variants so why hasn’t more action been taken to prevent variants being imported. I don’t care about people being able to go on holiday I just want normality in the U.K. and the government seem to screw it up time and time again, always thinking they know better than the scientists. They keep trying to put the economy before health and as a result let things spiral so badly that we’ve had thousands of deaths and huge damage to the economy and people’s livelihoods too. It’s possible to be cautious and as a result get the normality everyone wants.

THIS

The Gov and those who want lockdowns lifted yesterday can not seem to understand the need to act early and that is our Achilles heel. They choose to ignore it until it’s too late.

There are a vocal few on MN who will accuse you of ‘frothing’ at the notion of a lockdown, just like in early Feb last year when we were accused of screeching and shrieking for lockdowns to stop the ‘flu’ virus, that we were being ridiculous to suggest what was happening in a China would happen here too.

Assuming vaccines are our saviour is another big mistake, we haven’t even completed our vax program so why would we want to risk stepping into the unknown with a half finished effort? It’s no different to a child waking up to a snow filled garden, would you let them run out of the house with one welly on and no coat?

@Quartz2208

I have no idea why I have written whole instead of hole!

. How would we do that? The parameters of the virus cannot be changed? It spreads through airborne transmission. It evades partial selection pressures.

So you are instead suggesting that the parameters of what we think of as normal life can instead be changed? Because as you yourself are saying people arent isolating etc. Human instinct and human behaviour can no more be changed than how a virus works.

Failing to take into account how we are all feeling about this is just as dangerous and failing to act against the virus.

So we need to come up as I have said methods of keeping the virus in check as much as we can alongside allowing normal life to continue.

It would seem prudent therefore to maybe hold back on households mixing in houses - but allow the hospitiality sector to open.

Continue mask wearing, lack of contact, social distancing where it makes sense to (indoors in particular), test where we can but understand that it isnt going to go away and we have to learn to live it

I dont think necessarily we are disagreeing

@Quartz2208

So you are instead suggesting that the parameters of what we think of as normal life can instead be changed? Because as you yourself are saying people arent isolating etc. Human instinct and human behaviour can no more be changed than how a virus works.

Failing to take into account how we are all feeling about this is just as dangerous and failing to act against the virus.

So we need to come up as I have said methods of keeping the virus in check as much as we can alongside allowing normal life to continue.

It would seem prudent therefore to maybe hold back on households mixing in houses - but allow the hospitiality sector to open.

Continue mask wearing, lack of contact, social distancing where it makes sense to (indoors in particular), test where we can but understand that it isnt going to go away and we have to learn to live it

I dont think necessarily we are disagreeing

I think we are agreeing. I understand it is very hard to change human behaviour and I think it has to be a compromise. But we cannot compromise on testing and isolating. This needs to be addressed by the government IMO. I feel the gov have made a mistake by manipulating people rather than educating and engaging them in what is happening. People are so fed up with being pushed in different directions. Its exhausting. However, those who are not manipulated but understand are not exhausted as they are in the middle ground, rolling with the punches as beat they can. Government have made a big mistake.

@Moondust001

a real scientist....with medical training here. He's correct. There is no evidence whatsoever that this or any other variant evades the vaccines available. It is more easily transmitted that some previous strains, but even that is a bit of a "finger in the wind" thing, because comparing conditions in India to those in the UK is like comparing Earth to Mars.

There appears to be a train of Mumsnet thought that I really do not come across in any aspect of real life, where people seem to be enjoying living in a state of hysteria conducted from their living rooms because they have no intention of ever going to the shops, on holiday, or engaging with any form of real life ever again. They are therefore willing to jump on every doomsayer bandwagon and accuse anyone with rational thought processes of being flat-earthers or anti-vaxxers. Just because the vast majority of people want to get back to normal, whether or not they fully understand the imperatives for that, does not make them less intelligent than you. It makes them probably less entitled and almost certainly less irrational.

Most people cannot afford to spend their lives working from home and doing nothing with their lives. Most people don't even want to.

Great post

Steve from Facebook though 🤣🤣

I agree, Moondust, thank you.
I only read and have no medical knowledge admittedly, but isn't it correct that a virus mutates slightly each time it leaves the host. Effectively each time it is contracted it has changed. There is always going to be a new strain. There is no evidence to support that the vaccine is ineffective across all strains. The govt should do some research on that before issuing us with more lockdown restrictions.

Wonder what variant we will all be wringing our hands about before the June proposed easing. We’ve had Kent, India, Brazil, SA, where’s next?

So predictable. Every time things start to look positive along comes a new scary variant to keep us in our place.

Things are looking good for the vaccines so far....

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1393124817902133249?s=21

[quote MarcelineMissouri]Things are looking good for the vaccines so far....

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1393124817902133249?s=21[/quote]
🤞🤞🤞

I think many of us who are concerned would just like the government to listen to the scientists and take early action.

Which scientists would you like them to listen to? Bearing in mind that the scientific advisor being jumped upon by many on this thread is one of the scientists the government are listening to! Every single government in the world is listening to scientists. There is a problem with that. For every 100 scientists, there are 105 opinions! There is no such thing as an indisputable scientific fact. There are facts that have stood the test of time and much enquiry, and those are taken to be acknowledged facts until some scientists comes along and blows them out of the water. There is no way that something as new as this virus can fall into the category of "undisputed until shown otherwise" yet. Everything is up for questioning. And what is the absolute version of "early action" that "many of you" would like them to take? Is there only one possible early action? Of course not.

It also isn't just about science. Human beings live in complex groupings. Sociology, pyschology, economics... all these and many more things are part of the complicated equations that governments must try to balance. The world is not as black and white as some people would like it to be. The damage done to employment and industrial sectors also damages people's health, wellbeing and life expectancy. The damage done to mental health by fear and isolation also causes long term health problems, destroys wellbeing, and can adversely impact on life and quality of life.

There are no simple answers. There are no correct answers. Every single action has multiple layers of interactions, consequences and impacts. Every single one of them will have some good outcomes and some bad outcomes.

We are way past "listening to the experts" - there isn't any right answer to listen to. And no matter who the government(s) decide to bet on, at this stage there are too many people who cannot afford to comply with restrictions and disruptions any longer. That may not be the choice of everyone, and if they can afford to live isolated in their own bubbles, then that is a valid choice for them. But the point where it can be imposed on everyone is ending. The majority are moving away from tolerating it, and they can and will do their own assessments of the risks. There is another opinion that governments must listen to. That of the people. They ignore it at their peril.