Indian variant - will the roadmap be delayed?

[nonono1]

I was feeling very hopeful about the future until reading that the Indian variant is now spreading fast in some communities.

In light of this, do you think we will stick to the roadmap as planned, or will restrictions be kept in place for longer? It seems like we're still going ahead with the big opening up on Monday.

Also, what about weddings? My SIL is getting married in August and we're really hoping it will still go ahead!

@CallmeHendricks

If it's true, as I've read on here and heard on the bbc earlier, that this Indian variant is affecting people under 25, then perhaps that is an indication that the vaccine is holding up in the older population. Otherwise we'd be seeing larger numbers of the elderly succumbing.

Or have I misunderstood?

It’s be good to see update from SAGE

I think there’s a bit of panicking on here about brewing for next lock down etc

It’d

WHO - predominantly in the ages who haven’t had vaccine and usually mild

On radio atm

I am Indian and have nearly all my family and friends in India. My elderly mom and young adult DD in uni live there right now. I am super anxious and CVed out, so I won't say much about the terrible state of affairs, but I will say this.

I only have anecdotal data, but because all my family are doctors and I am in the 45+ age group, nearly all my family and friends have had two doses of the AZ vaccine. Some have subsequently got Covid ( because of intergenerational living) but have had mild infections and did not need to go to hospital. Meanwhile the young people they live or work with have been seriously ill, and in some cases, died:(

This is all anecdotal and I have no data. I just would urge any BAME to get the vaccine asap. We are at risk because we are prone to hidden diabetes and heart problems ( a large section of my family is slim but diabetic).

I am worried about the Indian variant spreading here and I shall be trying to get my 17 yr old DS vaccinated as soon as it is available.

@Frequentflier That’s really interesting. It goes to show the vaccine is working. I hope they all continue to stay safe and well x

@Frequentflier

I am Indian and have nearly all my family and friends in India. My elderly mom and young adult DD in uni live there right now. I am super anxious and CVed out, so I won't say much about the terrible state of affairs, but I will say this.

I only have anecdotal data, but because all my family are doctors and I am in the 45+ age group, nearly all my family and friends have had two doses of the AZ vaccine. Some have subsequently got Covid ( because of intergenerational living) but have had mild infections and did not need to go to hospital. Meanwhile the young people they live or work with have been seriously ill, and in some cases, died:(

This is all anecdotal and I have no data. I just would urge any BAME to get the vaccine asap. We are at risk because we are prone to hidden diabetes and heart problems ( a large section of my family is slim but diabetic).

I am worried about the Indian variant spreading here and I shall be trying to get my 17 yr old DS vaccinated as soon as it is available.

This is similar to my experience. My family with only one dose have been very I'll but not hospitalised. Those without vaccination at all who are young and healthy, have been hit much worse but none of my family had to go to hospital. That's why the gov are looking to expedite 2nd doses.

If it's true, as I've read on here and heard on the bbc earlier, that this Indian variant is affecting people under 25, then perhaps that is an indication that the vaccine is holding up in the older population

Nope - it's spreading among all age groups now, including the vaccinated - as with the last wave, it started in the younger age groups, likely a lot of spreading going on in schools this time, and then got taken home and spread to other family members.

The preliminary reports suggest that vaccines still offer SOME protection, but likely to be less - this has major implications for control as a slight lessening in vaccine efficacy will remove their ability to prevent ongoing transmission.

I.e. with the Kent variant, a vaccinated person is about 80% less likely to contract an infection significant enough to make them contagious. With the Indian variant this is likely to be far lower.

At the other end - serious illness/death, people are likely to have similar, but slightly less protection - but currently the greatest protection that ANYONE has, is the low number of cases. Remove the ability of vaccines to reduce infection numbers and that protection goes. Vaccines on their own aren't enough to prevent a large number of deaths and hospitalisations.

@bookworm1632

If it's true, as I've read on here and heard on the bbc earlier, that this Indian variant is affecting people under 25, then perhaps that is an indication that the vaccine is holding up in the older population

Nope - it's spreading among all age groups now, including the vaccinated - as with the last wave, it started in the younger age groups, likely a lot of spreading going on in schools this time, and then got taken home and spread to other family members.

The preliminary reports suggest that vaccines still offer SOME protection, but likely to be less - this has major implications for control as a slight lessening in vaccine efficacy will remove their ability to prevent ongoing transmission.

I.e. with the Kent variant, a vaccinated person is about 80% less likely to contract an infection significant enough to make them contagious. With the Indian variant this is likely to be far lower.

At the other end - serious illness/death, people are likely to have similar, but slightly less protection - but currently the greatest protection that ANYONE has, is the low number of cases. Remove the ability of vaccines to reduce infection numbers and that protection goes. Vaccines on their own aren't enough to prevent a large number of deaths and hospitalisations.

Can you link to info for older age groups?

Listening to Paul Hunter (WHO) this morning didn’t seem to go with this

Too many doom mongers on here who want everything shut still, people are breaking a lot of the rules now anyway.
If they backtracked on monday do you really think loads would listen , the impacts that would cause to businesses
No one has to go out if they don't want to
From what I am reading its the next relaxation thats likely to be on hold or amended , on monday we still will have quite strict rules especially inside , so its not like it is back to normal.
Also we have 5 weeks gap for a reason and they expect a slight increase in cases , its hospitalisation they want to stay low , its always mostly been about protect the NHS , a country with zero economy cannot fund an NHS
Just stop all holidays for a while no need for travel

Monday is going ahead as meets four requirements

Next lifting will be assessed again

Can you link to info for older age groups?

I suspect we’re back to ‘suggestions’.

Can you link to info for older age groups?

www.bbc.com/news/health-57094274

Public Health official.

"We've got higher rates in the younger age groups, but the increases are now happening across all the under 60s," says Lynn Donkin, the assistant director of public health in Bolton.

"That suggests to me that we've got transmission within households and that's now part of the situation here."

@bookworm1632

Can you link to info for older age groups?

www.bbc.com/news/health-57094274

Public Health official.

"We've got higher rates in the younger age groups, but the increases are now happening across all the under 60s," says Lynn Donkin, the assistant director of public health in Bolton.

"That suggests to me that we've got transmission within households and that's now part of the situation here."

Have they had the vaccine, how many doses?

Obviously if not they are at risk as younger age groups are.

But if they’ve had one or two it’s important to look at that.

‘Under 60s’ not being quite the same thing as ‘all age groups’

It's astonishing keeping an eye on BBC headlines. Zero deaths? Barely a whimper. Cases at record lows? Not a jot.

An extra 10 cases per 1000 people found in Bolton? 3-5 headlines per day on how fast it's spreading, how local lockdown is not off the table, how much we should be quivering in our breeches.

Crazy times

I am not advocating a delay in the roadmap. I think there is no public appetite for it and people have suffered enough. I myself will be behaving cautiously though: no travel, indoor dining, or the gym and I will continue to be masked everywhere, until more information is available.

@AlecTrevelyan006

It's astonishing keeping an eye on BBC headlines. Zero deaths? Barely a whimper. Cases at record lows? Not a jot.

An extra 10 cases per 1000 people found in Bolton? 3-5 headlines per day on how fast it's spreading, how local lockdown is not off the table, how much we should be quivering in our breeches.

Crazy times

Yes the BBC is becoming less reliable as a news platform and turning more and more into something resembling the tabloid press with scaremongering headlines to attract clicks...

It suits the government to keep their hand on the fear dial as things are opening up. New variants seem to be the technique of choice now.

They don’t want people going at it too hard and so they’re yanking the dial up a bit to keep people in check. The bbc seems to be supporting them in that.

Frequentflier - sorry to hear you have the worry for your family and loss of life. It was interesting to read you post though, in terms of vaccine effectiveness, urging people to come forward for vaccines.

If we're now seeing more transmission in the over 60's, do we have data to say what percentage of these people have been vaccinated?

Thank you @Frequentflier really good post x

Jesus

"Govt keeping it's hand on the fear dial" v "locked down forever before you know it"

How about. This is one of those bumps in the road the scientists very clearly warned about. We have to keep a very careful eye, apply mitigation measures and restrictions if needed and continue with slow release of restrictions if possible
It really isn't rocket science

How does anyone know which variant they have got?

When I had Covid at the turn of the year, all I got was "your test was positive" not "your test was positive for xxx variant".

Has this changed?

@Reachersloveinterest

How does anyone know which variant they have got?

When I had Covid at the turn of the year, all I got was "your test was positive" not "your test was positive for xxx variant".

Has this changed?

I'm not sure individuals do know,

As 90% of the vulnerable and elderly i.e. 60+ have been vaccinated then provided there is evidence that it provides meaningful (but not 100%) protection against the new variant I think there will be no changes to the road map