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Original poster

Can you help me with these results.

34 replies

Dandylioness1 · 09/05/2021 17:12

I’ve just used the Q- Covid calculator.

I’ve entered my details and it’s given me an absolute risk of hospitalisation & death from Covid.
They are as follows -

COVID associated death
0.0008% 1 in 125000

COVID associated hospital admission
0.0443% 1 in 2257

I’m in my 30’s, due my second dose of the AZ vaccine in 3 weeks.

My risk of a clot from the vaccine is
0.0016% 1 in 60000

So I’m more at risk from having the vaccine than I am from Covid?

I know the advice is to proceed with your second vaccine, but with these odds then I should surely be saying no!!

OP posts:
TruelyWonder · 09/05/2021 17:26

The risk to you now is the same risk as when you got the first jab. Though they say probably less with the second. No hard facts yet. The risk from a clot is small compared to all the risks you will take each week going about your life. All the vaccines like all medications and vaccines have risks. You decided to get vaccinated for a reason unless that reason has changed have your second jab.

Aria999 · 09/05/2021 17:35

You're comparing the risk of a clot to the risk of dying from covid.

But is that the risk of dying from a clot or just getting one? You would not necessarily die if you got a clot.

At your age (which is my age too fwiw) I would be more concerned about long covid (ongoing lung damage etc) than about death from it.

Aria999 · 09/05/2021 17:36

Correction, you said you are 30s not 49s. I am 43 in fact 😳 but I would still get the vaccine if I were you.

Ohnomoreno · 09/05/2021 17:38

Your risk of dying if you get a clot is about 25%. So yes your risk of serious harm or death from the vaccine is higher than your risk of death from covid. Still better than your risk of long covid though, if one assumes that people hospitalised with it will have ongoing issues for a while at least. But tbh now that you've had the first shot, you might as well get the second one, not going to make any difference but will reduce your covid risk.

mrshoho · 09/05/2021 17:49

According to those statistics your greatest risk is of being hospitalised with covid associated infection. I would imagine you would be quite unwell to be admitted to hospital and the unknown residual effects long term. I would personally take the vaccine.

JesusInTheCabbageVan · 09/05/2021 17:55

Most people who develop a clot from the vaccine won't die, especially now people are aware of the risks and what to watch for.

Plus you've already had one dose of AZ and been fine.

So yep, you've misunderstood.

Walkaround · 09/05/2021 18:11

@Dandylioness1 - Your vaccine risk is a short term risk, whereas your risk of getting covid and being made very unwell by it or dying of it goes on and on and on for as long as covid exists in the world. Now you’ve safely survived one dose of AS, I would choose to have the 2nd one if I were you, to maximise your protection from covid until boosters against variants are available, by when, hopefully, enough research will have been done to ensure you are given the safest booster!

JesusInTheCabbageVan · 09/05/2021 18:20

Plus - you're probably at relatively high risk of developing long COVID, and nobody knows what issues that will cause longer term.

Original poster
Dandylioness1 · 09/05/2021 18:21

@JesusInTheCabbageVan

Plus you've already had one dose of AZ and been fine.

From what I’ve read, that doesn’t actually mean anything.

OP posts:
Cornettoninja · 09/05/2021 18:22

@Aria999

You're comparing the risk of a clot to the risk of dying from covid.

But is that the risk of dying from a clot or just getting one? You would not necessarily die if you got a clot.

At your age (which is my age too fwiw) I would be more concerned about long covid (ongoing lung damage etc) than about death from it.

That’s my thoughts too. You’re not comparing like for like OP. The risk you’ve given here for a clot is more comparable with your risk of hospital admission for covid. You need to compare risk of death from a clot and risk of death from covid for the comparison I think you’re trying to make.
FireworksAndSparklers · 09/05/2021 18:28

The likelihood is that a lot more people have had clots than were initially showing up because they just had a bit of a headache then their body sorted out the issue without any long term or serious effects. Now everyone with a headache post vaccine is going to the Dr, they're picking up every single one. But every single one is treatable so the risk of dying from the clot is minuscule...and the risk of having a clot you'd actually need treatment from is minuscule. And the risk of having a clot if you have covid or the long term effects of long covid is much higher. I would get the vaccine and be vigilant for a couple of weeks.

DancesWithDaffodils · 09/05/2021 18:37

There is quite a good graphic half way down this British medical journal article. Obviously not as tailored for your situation, but for every 100,000 people aged 30-40 with low exposure risk, vaccination prevents just over 2 covid hospital admissions in the next 4 months, and vaccination is associated with less than 1 blood clot.

Nootkah · 09/05/2021 19:47

You dont automatically die from the clots. Is there data about fatality from clots ?

Original poster
Dandylioness1 · 09/05/2021 19:50

@Nootkah

You dont automatically die from the clots. Is there data about fatality from clots ?
@Nootkah

Maybe not normal clots, but clots in the brain don’t sound promising!!!

OP posts:
Walkaround · 09/05/2021 20:00

Something like 20% of people who get this particularly rare type of clot have died from the clots. I have no idea how much that death rate would improve now they know what they are looking for, though. It’s not just death that is a covid risk, and one’s risk from covid increases as the rate of covid in the community increases, due to increased risk of getting covid and decreased quality of over-burdened healthcare, so whilst the vaccine risk remains short term and steady, the covid risk goes up and down, depending on how many people are protected by vaccination, how much society has opened up again, and whether higher rates of infection speed up the evolution of variants that can evade the protection offered by vaccination.

TruelyWonder · 09/05/2021 20:26

Last time I looked only 141 women and 100 men had got clots from covid. Out of those few had actually been seriously ill because they have worked out a way to treat the clots caused by AZ. The number of people that have dead or would possibly die from AZ clots if we continued to use it again would be tiny compared to the number of under 50s that have dead or will die from covid.

Can the clots be treated?

Generally, the quicker that cases are identified, the better for the patient.

Treatment can involve a number of medicines and includes immunoglobulins - immune proteins - given through a drip.

Some patients will be sent home with new generation blood thinners and have regular monitoring.

According to blood specialist, Prof Adrian Newland, current evidence suggests 75% of people survive.

An expert panel of blood specialists in the UK have put together guidance for doctors, which is being constantly updated.

FireworksAndSparklers · 09/05/2021 20:31

@TruelyWonder

Last time I looked only 141 women and 100 men had got clots from covid. Out of those few had actually been seriously ill because they have worked out a way to treat the clots caused by AZ. The number of people that have dead or would possibly die from AZ clots if we continued to use it again would be tiny compared to the number of under 50s that have dead or will die from covid.

Can the clots be treated?

Generally, the quicker that cases are identified, the better for the patient.

Treatment can involve a number of medicines and includes immunoglobulins - immune proteins - given through a drip.

Some patients will be sent home with new generation blood thinners and have regular monitoring.

According to blood specialist, Prof Adrian Newland, current evidence suggests 75% of people survive.

An expert panel of blood specialists in the UK have put together guidance for doctors, which is being constantly updated.

Do you mean clots from the AZ vaccine in your first sentence? Considering the number of people who died from strokes, heart attacks or pulmonary emboli related to covid, I don't think that statistic can be right?
TruelyWonder · 09/05/2021 20:35

Yes sorryBlush

JesusInTheCabbageVan · 09/05/2021 20:36

[quote Dandylioness1]@JesusInTheCabbageVan

Plus you've already had one dose of AZ and been fine.

From what I’ve read, that doesn’t actually mean anything.[/quote]
Up to 28 April, 242 suspected cases of clotting have been reported across the UK through the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) Yellow Card scheme and to date, no confirmed cases have occurred after the second dose of AZ vaccine.

TruelyWonder · 09/05/2021 20:39

My point is we have vaccinated over 35 million people with first doses and done over 17 million with seconds.

241 people have reportedly got clots from AZ. Which doesn't sound a lot to me. Especially when you consider some of them were given medication and sent home without a hospital stay etc.

FireworksAndSparklers · 09/05/2021 21:22

@TruelyWonder

My point is we have vaccinated over 35 million people with first doses and done over 17 million with seconds.

241 people have reportedly got clots from AZ. Which doesn't sound a lot to me. Especially when you consider some of them were given medication and sent home without a hospital stay etc.

landofgiants · 09/05/2021 21:25

My understanding is that the clot risk from Covid infection is 8-10x higher than the clot risk with vaccination. That seems like good odds to me.

TruelyWonder · 09/05/2021 21:29

A long haul airplane flight is something like 1 in 1000 of getting a clot apparently.

People may say it is a different type of clot but both are treatable in most cases. However not in a small percentage of cases. So would you care which one you had.

Original poster
Dandylioness1 · 09/05/2021 22:23

@JesusInTheCabbageVan

Up to 28 April, 242 suspected cases of clotting have been reported across the UK through the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) Yellow Card scheme and to date, no confirmed cases have occurred after the second dose of AZ vaccine.

I don’t think this is correct, I’ve seen a few things online now which suggest that there have been 6 confirmed cases of clots after the second dose.

OP posts:
Walkaround · 09/05/2021 22:29

@Dandylioness1- the six cases of clots post-2nd dose have not been confirmed as linked to the 2nd dose, they have just been reported in case there is a link.