The risk of having a case of long Covid that lasts over 12 weeks with significant debilitating effects (more than a change of smell) - is that still higher than the risk of a blood clot?
Yes. The 2% estimate put forward by Tim Spector covers cases with significant debilitating impact (e.g. chronic fatigue, severe pains, breathing difficulties, etc).
Of course, 2% is a blended number with late 40-50s being at a higher risk and 20-30 year olds being at a lower risk. However, even for younger people the number is still significantly higher than 1 in 125,000.
The unknown factor is probability of a young person getting Covid (and therefore long Covid) and it is clearly lower when the community prevalence is down.