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CVT more likely caused by virus than vaccine

35 replies

acatcalledjohn · 15/04/2021 14:07

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-covid-vaccine-update-b1831744.html

Preliminary findings yet to be peer reviewed, but encouraging. It was on one of the many AZ clot fear threads on MN a few weeks ago I noticed a post from a GP who stated that she'd seen two cases of CVT last year in people that had had COVID, so she wondered (with a caveat that it was in no way scientific evidence) whether COVID could be the cause of CVT, rather than the vaccine.

Hopefully this is positive news and will encourage people to have the AZ jab should that be what's offered to them.

OP posts:
acatcalledjohn · 15/04/2021 14:10

Messed up title. Apologies.

CVT more likely caused by virus than vaccine

OP posts:
Adirondack · 15/04/2021 14:14

You should ask for your thread title to be amended

acatcalledjohn · 15/04/2021 14:16

Looks like MNHQ updated it quickly following my request!

OP posts:
Schulte · 15/04/2021 14:20

I just saw that the EMA will also issue some updated advice by 22 April latest. They sent out a press release to that effect yesterday.

Schulte · 15/04/2021 14:20

Sorry should have been clearer - updated advice on the AZ rollout.

User657849 · 15/04/2021 14:23

Sorry for my ignorance, but what is this saying?
(Can’t read article)

That those that suffered CVT after being vaccinated probably had Covid?

paralysedbyinertia · 15/04/2021 14:25

Thank you for posting this, OP.

acatcalledjohn · 15/04/2021 14:26

Hopefully it will be positive. Denmark having ruled out AZ altogether, and France telling people not to get a second AZ jab, may see some backtracking I hope.

If the findings of this study are confirmed then I would be keen to understand what it is about COVID (and to a lesser extent the vaccines) that causes CVT.

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acatcalledjohn · 15/04/2021 14:28

For those who can't read the link:

People who become infected with coronaviruss^ are eight times more likely to develop a rare blood clot than those who take the AstraZeneca vaccine, a new study has suggested.

A research team from Oxford University, which is not linked to the vaccine, said those with the virus are approximately 100 times more likely than an uninfected person to suffer cerebral venous thrombosis.

Earlier this week, Denmark became the first country in the world to fully ban the AstraZeneca jab over reports of rare blood clots among a small number of patients who received the vaccine.

Meanwhile, Europe’s Covid-19 death toll has passed 1 million, according to the World Health Organisation. Dr Hans Kluge, a top official, warned that the situation on the continent remained serious with about 1.6 million new infections every week.

OP posts:
User657849 · 15/04/2021 14:47

@acatcalledjohn, thanks!

acatcalledjohn · 15/04/2021 14:50

I had to search for the full article I read earlier today through Apple News.

The risk of developing a rare brain clot from Covid-19 is about eight times greater than vaccination with the AstraZeneca-Oxford jab, according to a new study.

Researchers at the University of Oxford, who are not linked to the vaccine, also found that people infected with coronavirus are “manyfold times” more likely than normal to develop the rare clotting disorder, known as cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT), where blood clots in the veins that run from the brain.

“There’s no doubt that Covid is a much greater risk of this [condition] than any of the vaccines,” said Professor Paul Harrison, a co-author of the study.

The research, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, drew comparisons between more than 500,000 Covid-19 patients in the US and 34 million people in Europe who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine, as well as the background level of CVT in the general population.

For Covid-19, the incidence rate of CVT stands at 39 cases per one million people, the study showed. But for a million people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca jab, there will be just five cases of CVT over a two-week period.

The scientists warned that all comparisons must be interpreted cautiously since data are still accruing and drawn from different sources. They added that their research was unable to determine the relative risk of developing CVT after vaccination due to uncertainty around the baseline rate for this condition.

Nor did the study address the incidence rate of thrombocytopenia in Covid-19 patients and people who had been vaccinated. This condition, where a patient presents abnormally low levels of platelets, has been detected alongside CVT in the cases of concern reported to date.

However, Prof Harrison, a professor of psychiatry and head of the Translational Neurobiology Group at Oxford University, said the research highlights “two important conclusions”.

“Firstly, Covid-19 markedly increases the risk of CVT, adding to the list of blood clotting problems this infection causes,” he said.
“Secondly, the Covid-19 risk is higher than seen with the current vaccines, even for those under 30; something that should be taken into account when considering the balances between risks and benefits for vaccination.”

The researchers said that out of the 20 cases of CVT detected among the 500,000 Covid patients, six occurred in people under 30.
“CVT occurs across the age range,” said Dr Maxime Taquet, co-author of the study and a professor of psychiatry at Oxford University. “There’s not an increased rate of CVT plus Covid in the younger patients. There’s just as many young patients as old patients. “We’ve got preliminary data where we do actually match for age, sex and race, and we see the exact same relative risk.”

The study also suggested that four cases of CVT are likely to occur in one million people vaccinated with either the Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech jab. However, the team warned that the data on this is too thin to establish any firm conclusions.

The research was described as “opportunistic” by the scientists, as it drew its Covid-19 patient data from a US-based electronic health records network which had recently been used by the Oxford team to show the neurological and psychiatric consequences of coronavirus.

This database, which is made up of a total of 81 million US patients, provided clear detail on CVT cases that had been detected among people infected with coronavirus, the experts said - though they acknowledged there may be under-reporting of the condition in medical records.

As for the incidence rate of CVT among people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca jab, this was taken from the European Medicines Agency’s database, which covered more than 34 million individuals at the time of publication.

Professor John Geddes, who was also involved in the research, said the findings of the study would be presented to Professor Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical adviser, and the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.

The scientists said their research was not influenced or shaped in any form by the Oxford team who developed the AstraZeneca vaccine.

They also said that research is need to establish whether Covid-19 and vaccination with the coronavirus jabs lead to CVT by the same or different mechanisms.

Professor Kevin McConway, of The Open University, who was not involved in the study, said: “This new piece of research throws a bit more light, though the researchers make it clear that they do not have all the answers, and that more data and more analysis and interpretation are necessary.”

OP posts:
acatcalledjohn · 15/04/2021 14:50

https://apple.news/ADCwhe32SCiijUlIQ-NnA

OP posts:
ConstantlyChanging · 15/04/2021 15:04

Doesn’t reassure me at all. The people dying of Covid are largely 80+ and more often men and the people dying of the vaccine effect are generally under 60 and female. So the risks for those two groups are not uniform. And that’s assuming they even catch Covid in the first place.

Rainbowsandstorms · 15/04/2021 15:52

Thank you, this is interesting. I’d be interested to see the cases broken down into age groups in the same way as the vaccination risk.

acatcalledjohn · 15/04/2021 15:56

I think you missed the point. Whilst people dying from COVID may be largely 80+, people developing blood clot complications are often younger. Around a third of CVT cases found after having suffered COVID is in people under 30.

OP posts:
acatcalledjohn · 15/04/2021 15:56

My post was aimed at @ConstantlyChanging

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bookworm1632 · 15/04/2021 16:07

@acatcalledjohn

I think you missed the point. Whilst people dying from COVID may be largely 80+, people developing blood clot complications are often younger. Around a third of CVT cases found after having suffered COVID is in people under 30.
Most definitely missed the point - clearly didn't read your posts or the linked article.

I suggested this a couple of weeks back. The AutoImmune response believed to result in the clots is believed to be caused by the spike protein associating with blood platelets causing antibodies to attack the platelets (roughly speaking). If a few hundred thousand spike proteins in a vaccine dose cause this, how much more likely a few BILLION spike proteins in a covid infection?!

The other key finding here is the prevalence of this occuring in the younger age groups - which would be expected of course as they have more active immune systems.

It doesn't prove that those who react badly to the vaccines would have reacted similarly to covid infection, but it's strong circumstantial evidence.

And of course it completely destroys the argument "I'm young therefore at low risk of covid, so I'm not going to risk the vaccine".

Circumlocutious · 15/04/2021 16:13

@ConstantlyChanging

Doesn’t reassure me at all. The people dying of Covid are largely 80+ and more often men and the people dying of the vaccine effect are generally under 60 and female. So the risks for those two groups are not uniform. And that’s assuming they even catch Covid in the first place.
The article quotes two previously healthy young men who died from these rare clots caused by covid.
Cornettoninja · 15/04/2021 16:17

“ “The researchers said that out of the 20 cases of CVT detected among the 500,000 Covid patients, six occurred in people under 30”

From the quoted article. I haven’t sat and done the maths to qualify my first reaction that this is higher rate than CVT’s in patients under 30 who’ve had a vaccine. Happy to be corrected on that though - I am prone to errors!

Cornettoninja · 15/04/2021 16:19

I meant to add, that I’m pretty confident that there will have been a small but significant amount of CVT’s missed from covid fatalities simply because I think a lot of post mortems won’t have been ordered during peaks.

Roonerspismed · 15/04/2021 16:24

Mmmm. The 48 year old Australian who died aged the AZ vaccine likely didn’t hand covid as numbers are so low.

I would like to believe this but I don’t. The age doesn’t stack up.

GoldfinchCharm · 15/04/2021 16:28

@bookworm1632

I suggested this a couple of weeks back. The AutoImmune response believed to result in the clots is believed to be caused by the spike protein associating with blood platelets causing antibodies to attack the platelets (roughly speaking). If a few hundred thousand spike proteins in a vaccine dose cause this, how much more likely a few BILLION spike proteins in a covid infection?!

Can you point me to the papers which specify the range and quantity of (and location of) spike protein induced by the different vaccines, please? This is something I'd been wondering about in general, and not been able to find out.
Also, is there good evidence saying how long the body continues to generate the spike protein after vaccination?

(Quantity of antigen and its persistence in the body are generally known quantities for traditional vaccines; less so here, as far as I can tell).

ConstantlyChanging · 15/04/2021 16:30

No, you’ve missed the point. The data for blood clots with Covid (and incidentally they’re not the same clots as they don’t come alongside low platelets so are easier to treat and less fatal) show that:

CVT occurs across the age range,” said Dr Maxime Taquet, co-author of the study and a professor of psychiatry at Oxford University. “There’s not an increased rate of CVT plus Covid in the younger patients. There’s just as many young patients as old patients.

Even spread. Whereas the post-vaccination clots seem to be occurring more predominantly in younger people and in women. This group is far less likely to die of ANY of the complications of Covid hence why on balance many, many countries think a more cautious approach to a vaccine that may harm them is necessary.

On top of that, about 2 weeks ago they said that there was no link, and in fact you were less likely to develop a blood clot after AZ. There were 5 cases. Now they say ok it is linked, there’s 79+ cases and 19 deaths, we didn’t know it would happen and don’t know why it is happening but it’s not as bad as Covid so you should all just be grateful. Well sorry but I’m not: I’m distinctly un-reassured because who knows what they’ll know/admit to knowing in another two weeks.

bookworm1632 · 15/04/2021 16:45

[quote GoldfinchCharm]@bookworm1632

I suggested this a couple of weeks back. The AutoImmune response believed to result in the clots is believed to be caused by the spike protein associating with blood platelets causing antibodies to attack the platelets (roughly speaking). If a few hundred thousand spike proteins in a vaccine dose cause this, how much more likely a few BILLION spike proteins in a covid infection?!

Can you point me to the papers which specify the range and quantity of (and location of) spike protein induced by the different vaccines, please? This is something I'd been wondering about in general, and not been able to find out.
Also, is there good evidence saying how long the body continues to generate the spike protein after vaccination?

(Quantity of antigen and its persistence in the body are generally known quantities for traditional vaccines; less so here, as far as I can tell).[/quote]
The spike protein is carried into the body with most of the vaccines - only with the mRNA jabs is it produced in the body. I would have guessed that it's a 1:1 production, i.e. 1 mRNA fragment produces 1 spike protein, but I do not know for sure.

Either way, the half-life of a vaccine within the body is short - a couple of hours. Typically it's believed that within 24-48 it will be completely gone from the body.

No idea on numbers sorry, but clearly anything that can self-replicate within the body is going to end up with far larger numbers than something injected and then evicted.

JS87 · 15/04/2021 16:50

The adenovirus vaccines also make the spike protein in the body. They carry in the dna which is then converted to mRNA and then spike protein