Will the SA Variant Delay Restrictions Lifting?

[Beebityboo]

I'm so worried that the SA variant surge will make them delay May 17th reopening plans. My parents live too far away to come and sit in the garden all day (my stepdad is elderly also). I've seen my mum once in a year. Do you think this is going to delay reopening? I'm not sure how I'll cope.
I've followed every single rule but the distance from my family is starting to really affect my mental health.

Me too. My parents are 200 miles away and I have not seen then since Christmas 2019. They originally said they would not see us until fully vacinated but are now saying because they had the AZ which does not work with the S African variant they will not see us until that is under control. It makes me feel very sad particularly as I have an 18 month old they have only met once.

No idea what this means for lockdown, really hoping it does not spread further and AZ proves to be more effective than the initial trials show.

Hope the PM remembers that he said the opening was one way. So this time he shouldn’t shake his fist and close back down anything that reopened this week.

Only if it becomes widespread,and only if it causes significant levels of illness.

Surge testing should establish the first, and examination of the numbers admitted should show if there will be a significant impact on NHS

So I guess the answer is no, we can't know as we don't have a crystal ball. And even if it's not this variant, there might be another. But I hope that the stronger sun and drier weather in the summer will have its own suppressing effect, and we will get the chance to mingle much for more a few months at least. And then if no vaccine-escaping variants by autumn, perhaps minimal or no reimposition of restrictions

(I think masks on public transport and in health care settings might persist, plus limits on very large indoors gatherings and most international travel?)

Having contact with family is within the rules if it is for mental health reasons. If you need to see your family and everyone involved agrees, then just see your family. There is easy access to testing now, so use it to make sure none of you are carrying the virus to each other. There are no prizes for sending yourself crazy following rules to the letter, do whatever you have to do to keep yourself and your family mentally healthy.

I agree. Lfts all round and see her. Who knows?

I think they need to find out how serious the SA variant is. I had AZ too, so I’m a bit nervous about it, but I don’t think any of the other vaccines are that good against it either. However, if the vaccine prevents severe illness and long covid then I’m not going to be too bothered. I’m not sure how they find out about that, though. I’m pissed off that our lax travel restrictions have allowed this to happen in the first place, though.

@Jo99996 that’s another load of rubbish he said.
If we end up with a variant that’s out of control and or loads of people in hospital to the point the nhs is getting overwhelmed, he will have to undo some of the rules relaxation. Unlikely but there’s always a tiny chance it might happen.
Nothing is written in stone and we should be following the science and adapt to an ever changing situation before it gets worse, but like usual we will be too late to sort anything out if needs be.

Heres some of many studies where the vaccines have been effective against B.1.351 (south african variant)

I literally don't read any media and just follow Mac N Chise on Twitter who is a virologist and puts facts and studies.

If there is any further lockdown due to variants, though they knew the virus would mutate from the start, people would have no faith in the government and there would be massive civil unrest.
Deaths and hospital admissions are still declining despite variants

*NO cases of B.1.351 14+ days post second dose. That’s vital. B.1.351 does not spread as efficiently and if anything we should take this as even more evidence that we need to continue increasing vaccination efforts. The study can be found here:
t.co/1qkILsytSu

Encouraging studies! 🧵
An analysis of cross-reactive viral binding and neutralization of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants shows Novavax’s and Moderna’s vaccines elicit immune responses that are effective against variants B.1.429 (CA) and B.1.351 (S. Africa).
t.co/4SXK9k36EK t.co/Ecp5hEZUiX

Serum samples obtained from participants vaccinated with two doses of Pfizer’s BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine shows effective neutralization against VOCs B.1.1.7 (UK), B.1.351 (S. Africa) AND P.1 (Brazil).
t.co/CIN2wjRWV6 t.co/NpXkomE1jL*

All the uncertainty is so difficult .

I was musing on this last night, for me I hope the restrictions lift on the 17th, for public health not so much.

@MrsHastingslikethebattle

I can't see where that graph you posted mentions Astra Zeneca which is what people are concerned about.

I don’t think there would be massive civil unrest...

You do realise there’s a new Indian double mutation variant at the mo that’s out of control in India and they reckon it’s responsible of a massive spike there? 200k cases yesterday in India.

Another solution would be us going to them but it would require sharing a car there and back. Does anyone know what the rules are around getting lifts from family members. If taxis are OK surely that's ok as well?

Just go and see your parents.

If, and it's a big if, the SA variant rubs rampant and some vaccines are ineffective you will be more scared then I'm guessing, so go whilst numbers are low you will get a boost to see you through the next phase.

But no I don't think the SA variant will affect restrictions, local mini lockdown perhaps at most.

[quote Crispina]@MrsHastingslikethebattle

I can't see where that graph you posted mentions Astra Zeneca which is what people are concerned about.[/quote]
Researchers found ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222- AstraZeneca Oxford) protects against SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.351 and B.1.1.7 in vaccinated Syrian Hamsters. Complete lack of disease.
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.11.435000v1

There's others but cant be arsed looking for them.

Anyone with concerns about vaccines, variants, please follow Mac N Chise on Twitter. Dont read the news, they havent got a clue and misuse information.

Even if my chance the AZ, doesnt protect at all against variants, though theres been no evidence so far to suggest it, they have booster jabs on the way.

Even if any vaccine doesnt protect, I think people have got to the point now where they would take their chances against Covid than live like this any longer.

@CovidHalloween

You do realise there’s a new Indian double mutation variant at the mo that’s out of control in India and they reckon it’s responsible of a massive spike there? 200k cases yesterday in India.

And yet India isn’t on the ‘red list’ yet. What a joke.

I think the surge testing is to try to avoid general shutdown - I am in the Barnet area that is being tested, and understand its mostly precautionary, as in someone who had it may have had close contacts here.

I reckon what we might see is localised shorter lockdowns while they trace variants if there seems to be a cluster of cases, and we may just have to live with that for a bit.

I think the surge testing won't stop spread, as anyone who was going to travel or needs to work won't come forward. In these situations, those who come forward will be those without anything to lose.

Local restrictions to stop travel outside of those areas affected, or even local lockdowns in those areas affected, is the obvious method of controlling spread, but this is something the UK government have failed to do before and can't seem to take seriously.

In the absence of any measures to stop people travelling out of those areas, the SA variant will inevitable spread gradually to the whole country.

Thanks UK government for your entirely useless border control.

No, I don't think it will alter things.

I think that the narrative will start to change soon. It will be get out there and spend and, miraculously, I think we will then stop hearing about 'variants'.

There's going to be all sorts of variants going forward, and some will be more infectious/less easily controlled by vaccines than others. The country can't grind to a halt every time a new one pops up. That's surely why there's the surge testing and contact tracing in areas where they do - to keep it as under control as possible, while still allowing easing to go ahead.

I don't think it'll affect reopening unless it goes bananas like the Kent variant did, which is precisely what all the measures are attempting to prevent. Don't forget there were none of these measures in place when the KV took hold - it did so almost under the radar. Before anyone knew how virulent it was, it was too late to contain it.

@CovidHalloween

You do realise there’s a new Indian double mutation variant at the mo that’s out of control in India and they reckon it’s responsible of a massive spike there? 200k cases yesterday in India.

You do realise that we can't live our lives constantly terrified of things that "might" happen or which "may" cause this and that or which "could" be resistant to the vaccine.

Life is much easier when you just worry about things which are within your control and not panic about things we can do nothing about.

I agree with other posters OP- LFTs for everyone and go and see them , presuming they have had the vaccine . Don’t bother waiting ! Who knows what might crop up soon , so get and go whilst cases are low .