Will the SA Variant Delay Restrictions Lifting?

[Beebityboo]

I'm so worried that the SA variant surge will make them delay May 17th reopening plans. My parents live too far away to come and sit in the garden all day (my stepdad is elderly also). I've seen my mum once in a year. Do you think this is going to delay reopening? I'm not sure how I'll cope.
I've followed every single rule but the distance from my family is starting to really affect my mental health.

I can't see there ever being another lockdown to be honest.

A lot of bad facts on this thread. Too many see vaccines as a binary - i.e. they work or they don't. It's not realistic.

Think of the immunity resulting from a vaccine like brakes on a car.
Now think of different variants as different road surface conditions.

Now like in one of those road safety videos where they have drivers applying the brakes and stopping just short of a pedestrian cutout, imagine there's different obstacles in the road ahead. The closest represents the ability to transmit the virus to others. After that is getting symptoms. Finally much further down the road is serious illness & death.

The SA variant corresponds with a wet road.
The AZ brakes aren't quite as good as the Pfizer ones.
Some drivers are slow to respond (weak immune systems)

Both vaccines are very good at stopping the car before hitting the serious illness/death barrier - the easiest target, although with the vulnerable, the AZ isn't going to be quite as good - we don't yet know what the difference in percentage will be - 90% falling to 85% maybe??

The big worry about the AZ jab and the SA variant is the FIRST barrier - infectiousness. On a dry road (Kent variant) it seems the jabs are pretty good at stopping people infecting others, but a wet road (SA) means it takes longer to stop (immune system beat the virus) - if vaccination doesn't stop anyone carrying the SA variant and infecting others then herd immunity becomes impossible. THAT's why it's of such concern to the government...

If it wasn’t the SA variant they’d dream up another excuse

If the vaccinations dont stop people carrying the SA variant (though some study I read says it can be really low to infect that many) and people do pass it on, people will get infected, yes, however if the other person is also vaccinated, it will most likely mean they will only have flu like symptoms.

Vaccines were never to stop transmission, studies show they do lower it slightly, they're a preventive. And they have shown good evidence so far against variants, serious illness and death.

@MrsHastingslikethebattle

If the vaccinations dont stop people carrying the SA variant (though some study I read says it can be really low to infect that many) and people do pass it on, people will get infected, yes, however if the other person is also vaccinated, it will most likely mean they will only have flu like symptoms.

Vaccines were never to stop transmission, studies show they do lower it slightly, they're a preventive. And they have shown good evidence so far against variants, serious illness and death.

Vaccines were never to stop transmission

Actually that's almost as important as the extent to which they protect against serious illness.

And studies show they lower it significantly currently - figures of 80%+ are being quoted in Israeli studies (Pfizer).

I very much hope we will open as planned, India etc variant or not.

Isn't the PM about to do a visit to India incidentally? Seems stupid

Even if any vaccine doesnt protect, I think people have got to the point now where they would take their chances against Covid than live like this any longer.

I agree with this and think we've reached the tipping point where people aren't going to comply any more

I suspect it will only delay the roadmap if there's a risk of it spreading outside London.