Anyone else feel like we are stuck now?

[RosieLemonade]

I don't really know how to explain it. Just feel like the rates of everything we measure are plateauing. Anyone else feel we will be in semi lockdown forever? I guess part of my frustration is the bad weather when ee can finally meet in gardens 😂

I kind of get what you mean, on the one hand you've got Boris leading us on a cautious ease of lockdown with the end result anticipated to be relatively restriction free by June/July then on the other hand you've got predictions of another wave in the summer and the doom lovers on here predicting restrictions again over winter. It's all so conflicting, and whilst none of us have a crystal ball to see into the future it can be sometimes hard to be positive when there's so much uncertainty. Vaccines should be our way out because that's the only real long term measure we've got, lockdowns or restrictions can't continue indefinitely. Just the thought of having to go back in any way scares the shit out of me.

I hear ya! I feel like it's all a bit groundhog day and very little has changed in the last year.
I was going to say our rates have plateaued / crept up for weeks but actually the data on the BBC website has updated and they are down again.....but the secondary school kids all go back full time after the Easter hols so no doubt it'll go up again!
Nothing that's reopened so far makes any difference to me (don't have a garden, don't need a haircut) so it's another 2 and a bit weeks until anything happens that will make things better for me. Still no confirmation of when we can travel to the rest of the UK to visit friends and family and no timescales for vaccination of the under 50's other than "by the end of July". It really does feel a bit like we've saved the old people & vulnerable and got the kids back to school and everyone in the middle is still trudging away as they were a year ago.

England here.
Rates have definitely plateaued round me. We are sitting between 90-100 per hundred thousand, and have done for about the last month.
I'm desperate to see family - and indeed have seen Mum twice since the new rules started. However, I'm also petrified that everyone is shouting about low rates, and we are going to end up back in a tier system, with patches of the UK ignored again rather than dealing with why some areas are staying stubbornly high - and we never really went above 500/100,000, so even our rates havnt fallen as much as other places.

The picture is not rosy everywhere, and those areas struggling with stubbornly high rates need support, not more of the same stuff that doesnt work for the geography/demographics/whatever other reason in the same way as the majority.

@Bluntness100

Are you not in the Uk op? Is that it? Here we could meet in gardens already and the weather was fine.

It’s snowing where I live (NE) but yes things are opening up now and despite schools opening our numbers are down. Our rate is 0.5 so hopefully it will keep falling.

I get you OP.

Rates are going up where I am (England). Hospitalisations have plateaued. I’m 49 and see no realistic chance of a vaccine soon, and teenage kids are all back to school on Monday just as everyone prepares to throw off the shackles of lockdown (fair enough).

I would love to feel more positive, but I just don’t.

@Bluntness100 travel is banned because of variants which might evade vaccines. Vaccination passports are pretty useless when it comes to variants.

I was pointing out the illogicality of the travel ban, since variants will be around all over the world for the long foreseeable future. If we aren’t going to ban travel forever, there’s not much point banning it now.

It really does feel a bit like we've saved the old people & vulnerable

It’s to protect the NHS not ‘save’ old people and clinically vulnerable.

I felt pretty annoyed today that Hancock said younger people should get their vaccine as long covid is very serious 'and can have debilitating side effects that essentially ruin your life' - but this issue is completely ignored in schools

@RosieLemonade

I think it is the slowing of vaccines and SAGE saying there will be another wave with the NHS being overwhelemed that made me feel this way.

I'm in my 40 as is DH - we've both been called for first dose of vaccine next week.

Relatives who have already had vaccines are already having theri second dose or coming up to it very quickly.

My children will be back in school after Easter and infection rate here are still low.

I do think there's a lot of doom mongering around and the press aren't great with anything sciencey.

I think next winter may well be the test - will we get hammered with bad flu year will vaccine immunity decline for covid - don't think anyone knows yet but at the minute I think it's looking very hopeful.

[quote TownTalkJewels]@Bluntness100 travel is banned because of variants which might evade vaccines. Vaccination passports are pretty useless when it comes to variants.

I was pointing out the illogicality of the travel ban, since variants will be around all over the world for the long foreseeable future. If we aren’t going to ban travel forever, there’s not much point banning it now.[/quote]
So far though with the very very many variants, none of them are resistant to thr vaccine. So not really illogical, since the vaccines are so far effective against every single variant that’s arisen.

I thought the South African one was resistant to vaccines?

I really hope you’re right, @Bluntness100. I think the PP may be right though- the SA variant and AZ aren’t a great combo, according to some reports.

@beginningoftheend

I felt pretty annoyed today that Hancock said younger people should get their vaccine as long covid is very serious 'and can have debilitating side effects that essentially ruin your life' - but this issue is completely ignored in schools

Well it's been ignored all throughout the pandemic in many ways.

May as well get my stake ready to be burned at but I question the sense of such a delay to vaccinate younger people, whilst giving first priority to very very unwell elderly people, if there is a possibility that such a large number of young people may have their health ruined for the rest of their lives (never mind the actual economic cost and cost to the NHS of this). Indeed, may not have their life expectancy reduced to such a degree that they won't ever get close to the age of some of the people who were vaccinated first.

I'm cautiously optimistic at the moment - have haircut booked next week together with plans to visit most of my towns inessential shops. I'm not planning to meet up with many outside in the next week or so, but that's mainly because its bloody freezing so wouldn't be much fun. I'm part-vaccinated and booked in for my second one at about the date in May when restrictions are due to reduce further - I think its after that that we can go away and stay in other people's houses. Oh, and rates around me have plummetted.

@TownTalkJewels

I really hope you’re right, *@Bluntness100*. I think the PP may be right though- the SA variant and AZ aren’t a great combo, according to some reports.

I think no one really knows, Pfizer has announced it is 100 percent effective and az are creating their booster to ensure it basically.

But didn’t South Africa suspend their vaccine programme due to AstraZeneca not working against the SA variant?

I can’t find any info that says it works against SA variant, but lots that say it doesn’t....

@SpringTimeDream
Brilliant - yes let’s ignore what’s happening in Chile and skip along happily. What’s the point in listening to scientific advice when we all know so much better anyway.

[quote MouldyBran]@SpringTimeDream
Brilliant - yes let’s ignore what’s happening in Chile and skip along happily. What’s the point in listening to scientific advice when we all know so much better anyway.[/quote]
Oh dear..... Chile.... you are really grasping at straws

@MouldyBran

The experts are telling us to open up so exactly what are you on about....

I'm in agreement with others in that it is time to skip back out again, if that's what the poster was saying

Was it only 7 people dying with covid today @RosieLemonade

That sounds great and not a plateau. Many more people died from lots of OTHER things today

Cases have risen by 806 today. What does that mean? Should we be worried?

Could be worse..you could be in Scotland ..still in full lockdown .
Despite the 7 day average no. of deaths being 2 .. for the whole of Scotland and despite the fact we recorded less than 200 cases today in a population of 5.5 milion

So I think you will be out of semi lockdown long before us ..we have to get there 1st

@Alonim

Cases have risen by 806 today. What does that mean? Should we be worried?

1000 of them are old....so it means nothing.

We can afford for infection levels to plateau at these rates, hospitalizations and deaths are falling.

The models for coming out of lockdown predict a rise in infection rates (currently infection rates falling in most of the UK) as we socialise more. Groups 1-9 have all now been offered a first dose and so this should mean infection rates can rise significantly without a rise in deaths and hospitalizations. About 75% of people in ICU during January were over 50, and of the 25% younger than that some would have been clinically vulnerable so in vaccine groups 1-9.

It takes 3 weeks post vaccine to build significant immunity, so that is why we are opening up slowly and keeping everyone outside. 3 weeks from now most people in groups 1-9 will have good protection. I do wonder, with the vaccine program being a little ahead of schedule, we may be able to hit phase two open a little earlier?

@Alonim

Cases have risen by 806 today. What does that mean? Should we be worried?

It means nothing because over 1000 of them are backdated. So not "new."