@DrDreReturns
Nope. You're more likely to come a cropper driving to the appointment. People are crap at assessing risk.
Not true.
If you are a woman aged under 50 I make it roughly:
One in 8 million chance of dying on your way to/from the surgery
One in 50,000 risk of having a major clotting event
One in 25,000 risk of catching and actually dying of Covid in a 6-month period
Note that most clotting events will not lead to death. Many covid cases will result in long-term health problems.
Or to put it another way, I am 41 and suffer from (severe) migraine with aura and a family history of stroke and DVT. I will still have AZ if offered (although I’ll be hoping for Pfizer!)
Dodgy back of envelope maths as follows...
The risk of dying in a road accident in any year in the UK is around 1 in 20,000. If you travel the average annual mileage of around 7,900 miles per year and your round trip to the surgery is 20 miles you have a roughly 1 in 7,905,138 chance of dying during that particular trip, or 1 in 8 million to keep things neat.
So far in the UK around 1 in 600,000 have suffered a major clotting event. Because younger to early middle aged people are more likely to be affected, the EMA believes it may occur in up to one in every 100,000 under-60s. Because it mostly affects younger women, let’s say a 1 in 50,000 risk if you are a woman under 50 years old.
This is still better odds compared to the risk of dying of Covid which for 25 to 44-year-olds who catch Covid is 0.04 per cent – or one in 2,500. Of course this assumes you catch Covid. You need 2 jabs per year of AZ, so let’s say a 10% chance of catching Covid in any given 6-month period, or a one in 25,000 chance of dying.