Will third wave delay reopening?

[nonono1]

Apologies if this has been posted already, I couldn’t see it. Boris is now talking of a third wave from Europe potentially (or inevitably) hitting us. Does that combined with the vaccine shortage mean the big reopening on 12th April could be delayed? Or will we go ahead as planned?

No one has the answer to that. I'm 50/50 right now.

If things are on track here but going wrong abroad they could still open pubs, shops, hairdressers etc, but extend the international travel ban, which they might already be planning.

I'm sure the roadmap said foreign holidays could resume on 17 May but now they're talking about pushing this back until July, August or even September.

Europe is suffering due to 'variants' because they don't routinely test for them when they do covid tests. The UK tests are designed to recognised all variants. We are for once ahead of the game.

Clearly not.,,it’s hardly going to hit in the next two weeks..

Open up domestically and keep the bloody borders closed.

The ‘third wave’ is in sone European countries. They are massively behind in immunisation.
All those at risk of dying or hospitalisation in this country have already been offered snd most accepted the jab.
So this country should open up other else is just mission creep and we were lied yo about the reason for lockdown (ie to prevent tv pics of hospitals overwhelmed.

@User133847

Open up domestically and keep the bloody borders closed.

Agree with this.

And as I believe they now have the Kent variant so are actually behind us in that respect despite having a wave more than us.

I think the March and April ones will go ahead. Anything after that could be pushed back which is a real shame. I don't really understand though as we have lots of people vaccinated and have already had the kent variant.

Agree with previous posters - open up within the UK but keep (or tighten) international travel restrictions.

I’m desperate for the March and April dates to stay in place. After that I think the dates are more likely to be moved. And I agree international travel should be banned for holidays for the foreseeable.

And just like that holidays abroad are banned until the end of June! (Although I thought they were banned anyway )

Suddenly BoJos talk of a scary third wave the day before makes sense - he even threw in some beach imagery!

April & May will go ahead. June was always very unrealistic let’s face it.

@Allmyarseandpeggymartin - no, it’s still until 17th May, nothing has changed other than you can now be fined. The road map said travel abroad at the earliest date was 17th May. It still is.

@HolmeH Thanks for that. I’m not sure people will risk it with a fine now.

@User133847

Open up domestically and keep the bloody borders closed.

Yes agree with this too.

People can holiday here, travel out of the UK should be for truly essential reasons only.

My ds had a flight booked to Europe on 30th June that was cancelled by the airline and moved to 1st July. I think the cancellation happened last month but his friend only spotted the email recently, so airlines (easyJet in this case ) may have expected the 17th May date to slip for a while. Booked in last summers lockdown as something to look forward to as end of university last hurrah. That’s when he thought they would be back at university!

@QuidditchQueen

The ‘third wave’ is in sone European countries. They are massively behind in immunisation. All those at risk of dying or hospitalisation in this country have already been offered snd most accepted the jab. So this country should open up other else is just mission creep and we were lied yo about the reason for lockdown (ie to prevent tv pics of hospitals overwhelmed.

That's not true. Asthmatics are at increased risk of hospitalisation and most did not get included in group 6. Over 40s are also at increased risk and most of group 10 have not been vaccinated.

The third wave in Europe is mostly due to the Kent variant - 72% of all cases in France, so the uk have already had this wave. Add to that the vaccination program of the uk, the natural end of winter respiratory viruses coming very soon and the continued efforts of European countries to catch up with their vaccine program and I can’t see how Boris can be reasonably expecting to ban overseas travel in the summertime.

@RosieLemonade

I think the March and April ones will go ahead. Anything after that could be pushed back which is a real shame. I don't really understand though as we have lots of people vaccinated and have already had the kent variant.

April and May will go as planned.

The two questions marks will be whether we will, or should, allow mass travel over the summer and whether all restrictions will end domestically on June 21st.

@QueenStromba they aren't at a risk that will overwhelm hospitals though. Otherwise they would have been prioritised for vaccinations. There will be a level of "acceptable" hospital numbers.

I read somewhere that the R rate has gone up slightly since schools have reopened, but still only just below 1 nationally. However, some regions have seen a bigger increase in cases in the last couple of weeks.

I think the government should have a much better 'colour' system by region, that there should be a possibility to keep schools open in some areas where rates are low but shut schools (quickly and efficiently) where cases are rising quickly to nip it in the bud. That would help with controlling the spread.

I also agree that we should keep borders closed and no international travel for a while longer.

I am really skeptical about the seasonal argument. Warmer countries can have really bad covid rates - look at Brazil - so I'm not too sure how that will work. In this country there has been a lot less of the normal flu than in previous years, not sure how that will affect the numbers.

The third wave in Europe is mostly due to the Kent variant - 72% of all cases in France, so the uk have already had this wave

I agree that the Kent variant caused the high cases in the UK in Jan/Feb and is now causing the high cases in mainland Europe. But just because we got the Kent variant earlier doesn't mean that we couldn't have another wave of it, does it? Affecting people who didn't get it last time?

Also what's important to remember is that many countries on the Continent is closing down when their cases are rising, but not nearly as high as when we shut down.

UK's cases when we shut down in December were around 26,000 new cases a day. Germany is going in lock down now with 12,000 new cases a day. Huge difference.

April and May will go ahead unless the cases creep up dramatically and even then I think it will be very difficult to justify extending restricitions unless hospital admissions start to climb again - hopefully with the vaccinations they won't in a significant way

I do think holidays abroad and possibly everything going back to normal in June are looking unlikely though - we need to do as much as we can to stop the arrival of dodgy variants that evade the vaccine.

@HolmeH

April & May will go ahead. June was always very unrealistic let’s face it.

No! It must ALL go ahead. We need to be back to normal in June or i will be seriously worried about my mental health