EMA say AZ is safe.

[pinkearedcow]

Such good news!

For most people under 50 the personal risk is extremely low

Err - it's around 1 in 200 die from covid for those aged 40-50.
About 4-5 will be hospitalised.
About 20 will suffer long-term issues, SOME of which will clear up over 6-8 weeks, some will still be causing life-changing issues 12 months later.

Meanwhile the vaccine has been associated with deaths at a frequently of about 1 in a million...

If you can't do the maths here, I think you've got bigger problems than either covid or the vaccine will ever give you.

What really worries me about all of this is that the vaccine could well be very very safe, but whether it is or not, people really really want to believe that it is because they believe that's the only way to get out of the hostage situation they are currently in. Locking people in their homes and denying them the very things they need to stay sane - variety, human contact being the main two - then saying their only way out is to be injected is a sure-fire way to get people to overlook any concerns and convince themselves that there is nothing at all to be worried about. At the very least people should exercise some health scepticism and not just say 'lalala not listening' when any suggestion of a problem arises.

It'll be fucking hideous if in a few years time it turns out these vaccine cause some serious or chronic problems (like the swine flu vaccine which essentially pointlessly poisoned people, many of them children) and millions of people suddenly realise they've been majorly fucked over.

At the very least give it a few minutes of thought. You owe that yourself surely?

OOoh! @notrub you nasty little extrapolator you

@TheHateIsNotGood

So as the EMA says it's ok - it's carry on and vax without any concerns - the EU God has deemed it so. As you were.

So has the MHRA.

part of it depends whether you think the UK regulator would compromise itself in recommending a vaccine that it had doubts about.

As I don't think we're a rogue state and am happy to trust the MHRA, I've had it.

I've had vaccines in the past and never so much as queried their provenance, contra indications etc...and suspect others haven't either.

The AZ vaccine is based on existing vaccine material and trials were run in tandem when they're usually run sequentially.

Ultimately one's choice whether you take it or not. But I've made my decision.

@TheHateIsNotGood

So as the EMA says it's ok - it's carry on and vax without any concerns - the EU God has deemed it so. As you were.

The MHRA have said the same and that was good enough for me but y'know.

In terms of risk on individual level basis, even that is minimal given the numbers who have had the vaccine and the numbers who have other conditions.

If they did come back and say if you are a blue spot human with pink spot disease then obviously you might be keen to avoid as theres a 10% chance of death you might want to avoid.

But the numbers don't back anything like this up. They couldn't find a link between those who died. So even the individual level risk has to be small.

@TheDailyCarbunkle so you have a theory that

The risk of covid to people under 50 is very very low. So if the risk of the vaccine is any higher than the covid risk (and I mean the real risk, not the imaginary world where people believe covid means certain death/disability) then by taking the vaccine people are increasing rather than decreasing their personal health risk

But you have nothing to back that up with so it is really just a theory. On the other hand, the EMA/MHRA etc. have data from millions and millions of vaccinations across all age groups that leads them to believe that the benefits of the vaccine still outweigh the risks.

You also said that:

the point I'm making which is about balancing the real, evidenced risk of covid (as detailed by actual data, not by concerns) against the real, evidenced risk of the vaccine and making an informed judgement

Isn’t that exactly what the EMA and MHRA have done today by concluding the benefits outweigh the risks?

Oh dear god!

The language of it. The continued reference to something that has largely been set aside.

www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/history/narcolepsy-flu.html

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5104623/

www.news-medical.net/health/Narcolepsy-and-swine-flu-vaccine.aspx

I wonder if we're deliberately being trolled on this thread....

@Bluebellbike

I had a stroke almost a year ago due to a blood clot. My first vaccination in January and it was the Pfizer vaccine. I am considering refusing the second one if it's the AZ one.

But the same issues exist with Pfizer. I believe your second vaccine will be the same as the first.

Bbc had a quote 1/1000. 40 yo die of covid.
So clearly for a 40yo the risk of covid is much higher than a 1 in a few million.
Especially with covid known to cause these clots too.

Risk of clots is even higher in pregnancy of on a flight.
However i do see that should it require repeated vaxs the risks do effectively go up a bit. So for a child to be vaxxed every year till they are say 85 would have 85x the risk i think.

@notrub

For most people under 50 the personal risk is extremely low

Err - it's around 1 in 200 die from covid for those aged 40-50.
About 4-5 will be hospitalised.
About 20 will suffer long-term issues, SOME of which will clear up over 6-8 weeks, some will still be causing life-changing issues 12 months later.

Meanwhile the vaccine has been associated with deaths at a frequently of about 1 in a million...

If you can't do the maths here, I think you've got bigger problems than either covid or the vaccine will ever give you.

I said for most people under 50. Let me explain again.

Your 1 in 200 number includes people with serious underlying conditions, including those who are in the terminal stages of illness. For a woman with no underlying illnesses aged 49, their risk of death from covid is 1 in 43,478. So for that woman to benefit personally from taking the vaccine, her risk from the vaccine would have to be less than that. It may well be, but the data isn't available.

Your crack about not being able to do maths was really childish.

Oh, don't post pesky FACTS curious.

I had the vaccine on Monday @TheDailyCarbunkle. I had no qualms. I'm off now, the second head I grew yesterday wants feeding.

@notrub please do you have a source for the stats re: COVID death rate for ages 4-50? And also long COVID risk? I've been looking for this but cannot find reliable data?

40-50 that should be!

@notrub

This thread is going to become a totem pole for people who couldn't even pass science at GCSE, to announce how THEIR opinions are more scientifically valid than those of the world's leading authorities...

I can't wait to see the insights....

Exactly.

Quantifying & understanding relative risk needs to be taught much better in schools, because it’s evidently something many people struggle badly with.

Whatever the risks associated with covid vaccines turn out to be, they will be negligible in comparison with the risks of obesity, smoking, or most obviously, catching covid.

@pinkearedcow

Oh, don't post pesky FACTS curious.

I had the vaccine on Monday @TheDailyCarbunkle. I had no qualms. I'm off now, the second head I grew yesterday wants feeding.

I don't understand posts like this. It's great if you're happy. Other people don't have to agree with you in order to validate your choice.

You've made a decision for yourself. Great. Others also make decisions and they base them on the available information. Not everyone comes to the same conclusion. Such is life.

For a woman with no underlying illnesses aged 49, their risk of death from covid is 1 in 43,478. So for that woman to benefit personally from taking the vaccine, her risk from the vaccine would have to be less than that. It may well be, but the data isn't available

@TheDailyCarbunkle - but there WILL be data on women aged 49 with no underlying illnesses having the vaccine as they will have had the vaccine here and in Europe if they are healthcare workers, carers etc etc

@TheDailyCarbunkle

I'd ask for sources for ANY of that nonsense, but I know I won't get any - or I'll be told to google it myself.

The data IS available, if you are able to understand it - maybe that's the problem you're having here??

I still find the arrogance of anti-vaxxers amazing...

The us hospitalisation data had i think up to 49 then 50-65 and the 2 were very similar amounts. Obviously many more in the younger group buti was still surprised at the number of younger people.

You've made a decision for yourself. Great. Others also make decisions and they base them on the available information. Not everyone comes to the same conclusion. Such is life

Agree 100% which is why I think it is wrong to try to scare people out of taking the vaccine by posting information which is dubious.

Whatever the risks associated with covid vaccines turn out to be, they will be negligible in comparison with the risks of obesity, smoking, or most obviously, catching covid.

I am being judgemental here but I don't understand this blind faith at all. The absolute belief that no matter what, no mistakes have been made and no unforeseen consequences could possibly happen baffles me. Medical mistakes are made in their millions every single day, in fact, medical error is a major cause of hospital deaths. It's not that I don't trust vaccine manufacturers, I just know they're human and they were put under massive pressure to save the world with a vaccine. The idea that they couldn't have made a single mistake, that they couldn't possibly cause any problems at any point, is fucking bonkers frankly.

wouldn't it be great if life were risk free....

@pinkearedcow

You've made a decision for yourself. Great. Others also make decisions and they base them on the available information. Not everyone comes to the same conclusion. Such is life

Agree 100% which is why I think it is wrong to try to scare people out of taking the vaccine by posting information which is dubious.

Which information did I post that was 'dubious'?

I would argue it is equally wrong to give people the impression that the vaccine is safe no matter what and they don't have to even think about any risks.

Adults should make their own judgements based on evidence, not be protected in case they get 'scared.'

According sky news Italy restart az vaccinations however Sweden still paused.
Not sure about France.