Sidmouth care home outbreak - why?

[crunchy37]

I’ve been reading reports that there has been an outbreak of Covid at a care home in Sidmouth and three people have sadly died:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56372847

According to the report, ‘the "vast majority" of residents and staff had received the first dose of vaccine, which "may have helped prevent an even worse situation".’

So why has this happened and why is there a police investigation into the outbreak?

This article from just three days ago seems very poignant now

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sidmouth-the-seaside-town-that-covid-forgot-kxjg6qlqf

They're still releasing covid positive patients directly into care homes.

That's awful

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay - I agree but thankfully most carehome residents & staff will be due their second jabs in the next couple weeks if not already. So even if it wasn’t wise, the second dose will be with them shortly! Going forwards, scientists are so far suggesting it’ll be a booster as opposed to two shots, makes sense.

That said, ‘only’ 3 residents died. Obviously extremely sad & you wish it wasn’t the case but maybe if they hadn’t have been vaccines yet, it’d have been far more like my relatives home 🤷🏼‍♀️ the one dose probably did save several lives.

This is the local news paper report if it helps
www.sidmouthherald.co.uk/news/holmesley-care-home-covid-outbreak-7819270

@lightand interesting - that report says one person has died, not three. In which case - spectacular success for the vaccine in protecting against death, I would say. But also an argument in favour of getting levels in the community as low as we reasonably can. And since we are all heartily sick of social distancing, that has to be by wide uptake of the vaccine, IMO.

Yes, I’m not suggesting it made no difference, HolmeH. Hopefully it did. Just that it’s not as easily explained away as some of the previous posters would like to think.

That’s an old quote from the home about the one death. They did later confirm there had been another death. I’m not sure about the third one.

@FlyingBurrito

Thank you for the link *@ParadiseIsland*

The document on the tweet won't open fully for me so can only comment on the tweet itself which says "59% of Covid19 cases are caught from people who have no symptoms at the time "

My understanding is that doesn't mean asypmtomatic only it includes those who later go on to show symptoms, so pre-symptomatic as well

Maybe the research on only asymptomatic isnt available yet

Sorry @FlyingBurrito was on the ipad yesterday and was struggling to access the direct link. Here it is: jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774707

Reports on the news that two staff have been arrested for “wilful neglect” relating to the outbreak.

I wonder if they have gone to work knowing they had COVID?

www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/two-staff-members-arrested-after-5229533

Local news reporting the investigation is focused on infection control and management but that could be interpreted any number of ways. CQC report from last month not yet published.

I suppose the other reality is that a Covid outbreak can cover a multitude of sins and whilst you can say they died with Covid there could have been other contributing factors if during the outbreak they didn't keep up with normal standards of care and neglected patients and their needs aside from the Covid itms. Post mortem can perhaps reveal those things eg whether someone had been adequately fed and hydrated

IIRC something I’ve read, and sorry I can’t remember where, relates to a complaint made about the standard of care made just before the start of the outbreak.

See this morning they announced that 2 staff members have been arrested!

Pre-symptomatic transmission is incredibly common and well acknowledged.

Genuinely asymptomatic transmission (no symptoms at the time, and never going on to develop them) seems quite uncommon.

People continually confuse the two.

Because the vaccine doesn’t stop you catching or transmitting. It will lessen the chance of dying. That’s why vaccine passports make absolutely no sense!

@Cloudyrainsham

Because the vaccine doesn’t stop you catching or transmitting. It will lessen the chance of dying. That’s why vaccine passports make absolutely no sense!

They do reduce transmission, like the vast, vast majority of vaccines in general.

Pfizer reduces it by about 70%, AZ by 60%. After one dose.

^ www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-vaccine-pfizer-transmission-dose-b1807964.html

@notrub

The involvement of the police DOES NOT MEAN a crime has been committed.

It doesn't even mean a crime is LIKELY to have been committed.

This kind of investigation is fairly routine - google Operation Koper if interested.

@notrub

Not true. The police being involved was a big red flag. Unsurprised but saddened to hear the news.

One Pfizer dose in over 80’s is less than 60% effective I believe.

@doireallyneedaname

One Pfizer dose in over 80’s is less than 60% effective I believe.

Effective at what?

@Circumlocutious Overall effectiveness, I believe. Not sure on the breakdown.

@Circumlocutious Just checked.

Infections in the over 70s fall from around three weeks after one dose of both vaccines

Protection against symptomatic COVID in those over 70, four weeks after the first jab, ranged between 57-61% for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and 60-73% for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine

The vaccines are more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisations in over 80s around three to four weeks after one dose

As well as the protection against symptomatic disease, over 80s who had received a Pfizer jab had an additional 43% lower risk of emergency hospitalisation and an additional 51% lower risk of death

Over 80s who had been given the first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine were found to have a 37% lower risk of emergency hospital admission, but there is insufficient follow-up data to assess its impact on death

hmmmm, now isn't it true that there isn't a need for an autopsy when Covid is listed as a cause of death?

With cases being low in the area generally and resident's being vaccinated, maybe the police are suspicious over whether Covid really did cause the deaths of these people?

That's what I meant about a Covid outbreak covering a multitude of sins. If they were already having complaints about standards of care I can't see them handling staff shortages and extra pressures with Covid well.

Neglect can be fatal for frail patients

I thought I read that the AZ vaccine gives 100% immunity against serious illness (requiring hospitalization) and death.

The problem is the people who unfortunately died in the care home may have been going to die anyway but the fact they died whilst having a cobid diagnosis means it is recorded as a covid death.